[Barbara]

Looks like global heating is going to hit faster than PO.
In northern Italy there's a strong heat wave. Rivers and lakes are close to red alert... very low on water. This because of heat, of course, but mainly because we had very low snow falling on mountains last winter.
Anyway: the govt yesterday called people to low water consumes or face blackouts. There are big troubles over electricity production... hydroelectric of course, but also thermoelectric (40% of our electricity is from oil): thermoelectric plants need PLENTY of fresh water to cool down. Guess nuke plants are in the same boat.

So this is my question: what if we witness blackouts due to global heating instead of PO? Scary thought.

[Starvid]

Nuclear plants and oil plants can be positioned on the coast and use sea water. I don't think global warming will boil off the seas.

Hydro electricity is another matter. Global warming will change weather patterns. It is quite ironic that while Italy loses hydroelectric potential, Sweden will get more rain, meaning we can increase our hydroelectric production.

[Sys1]

"Nuclear plants and oil plants can be positioned on the coast and use sea water. I don't think global warming will boil off the seas."

Well, i guess that they prefer to use water from rivers for 2 reasons :
1) Water is cleaner, without salt, and cooler than sea one.
2) River water is moving with regularity and renewing itself, meaning it's turbine friendly or reliable to cool a nuclear reactor.

[Barbara]

I don't think that, with PO coming, they're planning to relocate oil plants building them near coasts!
We used to have plenty of fresh water in northern Italy, and also north Italy is far from coast.
Southern plants are near the sea, of course.

But I'm not speaking only about my country... there should be many countries in the same situation, with a lot of fresh water and no coasts.

[Wildwell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'N')uclear plants and oil plants can be positioned on the coast and use sea water. I don't think global warming will boil off the seas.

[gnm]

And then there New Mexico, where we have very little fresh water and no coasts! We have had long term drought here, with this last winter finally being better for snowpack. while it has helped, it will still take many good years to renew the resevoirs. But I wont be surprised if it dries out again, drought is a way of life here....

-G

[frankthetank]

I think its fair to say that no one can say exactly how the climate will play out. The water situation is serious in many areas, but who knows, a year from now there could be record flooding. Don't believe anything a computer model tells you is going to happen months/years down the road. Most still have a hard time knowing how much precipitation is going to fall in the next day.

Here in the states, Illinois, among others, is having a hell of a time finding rain. Illinois is a huge producer of corn, amongst others, and without rain, could really sting.

Northern Italy from June 23


Link to picture

red dots indicate active fires.

[Doly]

Any way the climate plays out, changes will be slow. Peak oil could happen a lot faster than climate change. Of course, combined with climate change it could look quite ugly.

[gnm]

As I understand it, global warming could cause MORE precipitation in my area... That would be a good thing if you could cut out the "more severe and variable" part...

Nice map. I think back in 2000 we had that many fires in this state! It was so bad that for months through the summer the sky was a dark brown haze - it was very depressing. Like living in a brown fog. And the nearest fire from us was 20 miles or so...

-G

[frankthetank]

GNM~

THINKING back to winter, NM really did cash in on the heavy snowfall.

Nice thing about NM, N Italy, is that the mountains can be a haven against the summer heat.

I was in Denver a few years back, and while it was in the mid 80's downtown, 14K up it was in the mid 40's, requiring a jacket and pants!

[SolarDave]

Number of US generating plants in 2003 (not Hydro): 11,000

Number of Plant-Generators (Existing Capacity), by Energy Source

Length of US coastline: 12,383 miles (19,924 km)

CIA World Factbook

[pea-jay]

Here in California, the equation could be reversed

No electricity=no water.

We spend 6% or so of the total grid production to MOVE water from where occurs naturally to where it is needed. Yes we have hydro facilities here, but they only account for 20% of total electrical production. Natural gas and coal account for the majority (mostly natural gas). Most people here forget that it takes a significant amount of energy to ensure water flows out of the tap whenever someone needs it.

Lets look at that equation one more time, a little differently

No electricity --> No water --> No life

Italy has a dry climate. So does Spain and Greece. Water has been transported for millenia in Europe. I am curious what the situation is like now.

[thorn]

It could get much worse here in the US:

From: Climate of Man II
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Different climate models offer very different predictions about future water availability; in the paper, Rind applied the criteria used in the Palmer index to giss’s model and also to a model operated by noaa’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. He found that as carbon-dioxide levels rose the world began to experience more and more serious water shortages, starting near the equator and then spreading toward the poles. When he applied the index to the giss model for doubled CO2, it showed most of the continental United States to be suffering under severe drought conditions. When he applied the index to the G.F.D.L. model, the results were even more dire. Rind created two maps to illustrate these findings. Yellow represented a forty-to-sixty-per-cent chance of summertime drought, ochre a sixty-to-eighty-per-cent chance, and brown an eighty-to-a-hundred-per-cent chance. In the first map, showing the giss results, the Northeast was yellow, the Midwest was ochre, and the Rocky Mountain states and California were brown. In the second, showing the G.F.D.L. results, brown covered practically the entire country.

“I gave a talk based on these drought indices out in California to water-resource managers,” Rind told me. “And they said, ‘Well, if that happens, forget it.’ There’s just no way they could deal with that.”

He went on, “Obviously, if you get drought indices like these, there’s no adaptation that’s possible. But let’s say it’s not that severe. What adaptation are we talking about? Adaptation in 2020? Adaptation in 2040? Adaptation in 2060? Because the way the models project this, as global warming gets going, once you’ve adapted to one decade you’re going to have to change everything the next decade.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', '
')Italy has a dry climate. So does Spain and Greece. Water has been transported for millenia in Europe. I am curious what the situation is like now.

[Trindelm]

It is not necessarily global warming as there is Global Weirding.
In Chicago this Winter there would be days when it was 65 F in January!
Then a few hours later after a monsoon, the temps would drop the monsoon would turn into a blizzard and the rain puddles would ice over. Only to repeat this cycle a week later. Of course things like this would have happened with or without global warming but it is happening under greater frequency.
The weather patterns have been disrupted thus these patterns are thrashing around, ou may be praying for rain one month, the next you are praying for it to stop.

[Cyrus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') had read somewhere that we could have a prolonged (like 6 years!) drought here in the US. Most of the people in the US would have to move somewhere else!

[mgibbons19]

Out in Western Nebraska I rode my bike a few weeks ago. The Lake McConaughy reservoir is out there.



They have been having a long-ass-drought out there. Something like six years. And the lake is empty. It is down to 25% of it's earlier volume. I sailed out there when I was a kid, and last month I was looking at a big valley with scrub and sand at the bottom.



Weird.

Edit to add: And that picture is from Oct 2003

[nocar]

I am sure that humanity can get along quite fine without petroleum if we organise things wisely. First thing, get rid of private automobiles.

I am sure humanity can not get along without fresh water. Americans should be more worried about water that about gasoline prices.

nocar

[Barbara]

No no no, Italy is not dry at all, except some Southern areas.
We had big mountains, full of snow in winter: when spring come, the snow melts and we have plenty of fresh water in rivers and lakes all around the country. We literally SWIM in fresh water like Arabs swim in oil...
But like Arabs, things are changing. Thanks to global heating, we are having less and less snow every winter, and the result is less and less water in spring and summer. Can you imagine what is this in a country which always counted on endless water to produce electricity?

mgibbons,
those photos are really scaring. There are many small lakes around here in the same situation. If I remind well, Nebraska is a snowy country... maybe you have our same problem.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '"')Nuclear plants and oil plants can be positioned on the coast and use sea water. I don't think global warming will boil off the seas."

Well, i guess that they prefer to use water from rivers for 2 reasons :
1) Water is cleaner, without salt, and cooler than sea one.
2) River water is moving with regularity and renewing itself, meaning it's turbine friendly or reliable to cool a nuclear reactor.