[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', 'M')y point is that most of the world lives quite well in lesser standards than we're used to, so the very idea of "collapse" is very relative. How much? Is the loss of the internet collapse? Is the loss of gasoline to fuel your car collapse? Is it the cessation of mail delivery? The end of all government, local, state, and Fed? Martial law?.

[americandream]

@pstarr

In other words we see a significant global population increasingly being drawn into an economic society that has a large resource and pollution footprint.

Much of the imagery of this culture spread through elite dominated media and wars.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tom_s2', 'I') don't think these energy decline theories satisfy the criterion of falsifiability. As a result, they are not valid scientific theories, in my opinion.

[tom_s2]

Hi Keith,

You're changing the topic. Nobody here said that FF are infinite. We were discussing whether civilization is going to collapse.

These ideas of imminent collapse are theories, not observations. Those theories have already had a long string of badly failed predictions, and no successful predictions. I am asking if there is any possible evidence which would lead anyone here to conclude that the theory is wrong. I am asking when anyone would conclude that there is something wrong with these theories. If the answer is "never" then the theories are not falsifiable and do not meet the minimal criteria of scientific theories.

-Tom S

[jedrider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tom_s2', 'H')i Keith,

You're changing the topic. Nobody here said that FF are infinite. We were discussing whether civilization is going to collapse.

These ideas of imminent collapse are theories, not observations. Those theories have already had a long string of badly failed predictions, and no successful predictions. I am asking if there is any possible evidence which would lead anyone here to conclude that the theory is wrong. I am asking when anyone would conclude that there is something wrong with these theories. If the answer is "never" then the theories are not falsifiable and do not meet the minimal criteria of scientific theories.

-Tom S

[Strummer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tom_s2', 'T')hose theories have already had a long string of badly failed predictions, and no successful predictions.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tom_s2', 'T')he problem with your claim about a "fractile process that is difficult to see" is that it's indistinguishable from civilization not collapsing.

[Strummer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tom_s2', 'T')he problem with your claim about a "fractile process that is difficult to see" is that it's indistinguishable from civilization not collapsing.

[tom_s2]

Hi strummer,

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tom_s2', 'T')hose theories have already had a long string of badly failed predictions, and no successful predictions.

[tom_s2]

Hi strummer,

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', 'I')t's only "difficult to see" if you live your comfortable upper class life in the center of the empire. I'm pretty sure the citizens of Rome felt the same as you do, while the border fortresses on the Danube were already crumbling. Why don't you move to Egypt or Syria or Ukraine for a year, and then we can talk whether the collapse is "difficult to see".

[tom_s2]

Hi pstarr,

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hat evidence do you have that population is not increasing at an alarming rate and that ecologic decline is not expanding to cover the globe? There is no theory necessary to understand a finite earth, and ever-expanding human population

[tom_s2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')o let me ask you, what logical rational, factual evidence could anyone present to you that would convince you that a broad collapse of the economy is imminent, say within 20 years?

[Pops]

tom, folks in this thread responded to your initial question "How would we know that this theory of collapse is wrong?" with examples of past societies that did collapse due to social, environmental, climate reasons.

But you said that was changing the subject, because "These ideas of imminent collapse are theories, not observations."

And then go on to say that "For example, rapidly declining energy production per capita in industrial countries" would be an observation that validates the theory. But exactly what good is making a prediction after the outcome is obvious?

LOL - It is 1:30pm right now, is it a prediction if I say the sun will come up today? No, it is only a prediction, a hypothesis, if I say the sun will come up tomorrow then wait to see.

You are trying to disprove the theory that PO will harm the economy by saying it hasn't happened yet - well yeah we know, peak oil hasn't happened yet.

You are saying we shouldn't tune into the game until it is over because no one can prove who will win, and we definitely shouldn't be looking for clues as to which team is winning.

[Pops]

LOL, that's a good idea, Pete.

I looked at kickstarter and don't think it would work - you're supposed to use funds to make a sharable thing.

How about YouBetMe?

ETA naw, no money in that one, looked at a few sites but can't find one with real money and user defined questions...

[tom_s2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 't')om, folks in this thread responded to your initial question "How would we know that this theory of collapse is wrong?" with examples of past societies that did collapse due to social, environmental, climate reasons.

[ralfy]

Perhaps one way of looking at this issue is to compare forecasts made decades ago with what took place during the decades that followed:

"Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

and from there explain how future trends will not follow forecasts.

Also, if what resembles collapse has been taking place for most of the world's population:

is-it-a-waste-of-time-educating-others-about-peak-oil-t71038.html#p1236645

then a lot more energy and material resources will be needed to deal with that as well.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tom_s2', 'B')ut that is not an answer to the question I asked. That does not provide any criterion of falsification, or any way for you to realize if the theory is wrong.