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Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby Lore » Mon 16 Feb 2015, 17:19:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')But the effects of ceasing to burn FF's are "huge" and "immediate". At least 5 billion humans starve, and all the American cities fold, for example. That is no theory, we KNOW what happens without cheap oil. It is only YOU genocidal AGW fanatics that want to kill that many people.


No, that's an untested hypothesis. Just as I could say that a controlled deescalation of fossil fuel use with a greater emphasis on alternatives would prevent a mass die off from happening.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby Pops » Mon 16 Feb 2015, 20:23:48

I'm guessing that science itself really doesn't have a fail, how can it? It is a process of constant questioning. If there is a fail it is science must "interface" with emotion in order to be of any value.

It is the humans who come to believe that because some aspects of science are settled (or not) means that their own most outlandish idle thoughts and fantasies are then justified as well.

This makes sense to me:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal warming.
And this is perhaps the most politically contentious scientific issue in the modern world. You probably already have your mind made up as respects what you think about this issue before you even read these words. Indeed, the idea that the science could ever be settled on this issue really riles some people up, and people are quick to label those with different opinions from their own as “alarmists” or “deniers” as the case may be.

Yet there are some scientific facts surrounding the climate that are settled: one is that the Earth has been warming and continues to warm significantly, and the second is that the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the Earth atmosphere has also increased by a significant percentage over the past two centuries due to human activity. Scientifically, the chances that the observed warming is a fluke, chance event is only 0.002%, meaning that we are 99.998% certain that the Earth is legitimately warmer today than it was a century ago. It would be unfair to science — both the scientific process and the scientific body of knowledge — to not consider these two pieces of the puzzle “settled.”

But there are other things that are open questions. The Earth’s climate stays within a (quasi-)stable range, where the climate remains relatively stable over time. Natural causes and variations have been seen (in the historical records) to shift that stable point over time; we believe that human causes can do that at well. But where is that “tipping point,” where we’ll transition to a new stable point that’s different from the old one? And what will that stable point look like, and what are the consequences that will ensue? On these points, science continues to make progress, but it is not yet settled. There is simply too much we do not yet understand.


Where science meets world is the fail.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby KaiserJeep » Mon 16 Feb 2015, 20:59:46

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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby jedrider » Mon 16 Feb 2015, 21:49:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')here science meets world is the fail.


Let us just say that [our] world is the FAIL. Science didn't fail at all, but civilization is walking on the plank right now.

Kaiser makes terrific sense sometimes and then, other times, is an utter FAIL, too. Not too consistent, therefore.

I have two observations about the failure of science:

1. Health sciences seems to be in a category all it's own. Is this because there is so much MONEY involved and the systems are really on the tip of complexity?? Probably.

2. On Kuhn's Paradigm Shift, there seems to be two phases of science: No real knowledge and a mountain of knowledge and data. The first, we can speak of Paradigm Shifts, but during the second phase, we are dealing with a mountain of data that doesn't really go away.

Unfortunately, the most pressing issues today on in the category of 'mountain of data' that is NOT really going to go away as much as we wish it would and, frankly, just leave us alone!

Hence, we hang out on these boards commiserating with each other over it.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby Keith_McClary » Tue 17 Feb 2015, 01:40:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '[')img]https://d262ilb51hltx0.cloudfront.net/max/756/1*mozWAYuQQ8LazQxCudNspA.jpeg[/img]

You are showing your true colours here. How far back were those beliefs ever "settled science"? They were more like religion or philosophy, before "science" as you define it was invented. The ancient Greeks knew about the curvature of the earth. "Global cooling" was a couple of speculative papers that mentioned the (not imminent) possibility of another glacial period, which was hyped by ignorant "science journalists".
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Feb 2015, 02:16:21

You are demonstrating rank prejudice here. Like every generation since the Greeks, you consider yourself stylishly current and educated in the sciences. Like every generation before you, your beliefs will be soon be rendered foolish and quaint by new knowledge.

Climate science is in it's infancy and pretty often people forget that not one single climate model accurately predicts future climate when tested against recorded temperatures. I can tell you as a computer professional that we don't have any publicly disclosed computers capable of modeling planetary climate, and those that attempt to do so on PC hardware using spreadsheets are using machines three orders of magnitude less powerful than needed. Unfortunately they can still qualify for government grants to do such work, as long as the results agree with the preconceived positions of the current POTUS and his science boffins.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby jedrider » Tue 17 Feb 2015, 02:22:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'Y')ou are demonstrating rank prejudice here. Like every generation since the Greeks, you consider yourself stylishly current and educated in the sciences. Like every generation before you, your beliefs will be soon be rendered foolish and quaint by new knowledge.

Climate science is in it's infancy and pretty often people forget that not one single climate model accurately predicts future climate when tested against recorded temperatures. I can tell you as a computer professional that we don't have any publicly disclosed computers capable of modeling planetary climate, and those that attempt to do so on PC hardware using spreadsheets are using machines three orders of magnitude less powerful than needed. Unfortunately they can still qualify for government grants to do such work, as long as the results agree with the preconceived positions of the current POTUS and his science boffins.


Like I said, we may not really understand all the 'climate' and 'earth' science, but the mountain of data is NOT going to go away. At this point, all we can do is refine the model, but not change it drastically, as all the data points in the same direction, to a catastrophically warming world.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby Keith_McClary » Tue 17 Feb 2015, 02:33:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'I') can tell you as a computer professional that we don't have any publicly disclosed computers capable of modeling planetary climate, and those that attempt to do so on PC hardware using spreadsheets are using machines three orders of magnitude less powerful than needed. Unfortunately they can still qualify for government grants to do such work, as long as the results agree with the preconceived positions of the current POTUS and his science boffins.
Yes, there are student projects of this nature that get a few dollars of funds, and sometimes they are publicised by ignorant "science journalists", which by your "thinking" proves science is bunk.

BTW, your 'toon did not include "The Universe was created in seven days by a magical being". I guess that wouldn't have played well with its target audience. :lol:
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Feb 2015, 06:21:04

I understand that not all observed data agrees with the AGW theory. Such as for example the satellite infrared studies which show a 28-year long global cooling trend.

Ask the citizens of Nantucket. They just got another 22" of Global Warming, and the power has been off and on again. They appear to be on the path of using record amounts of propane this season to deal with the AGW.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Most of the Eastern US seems to be caught in the grip of this "warming". My MIL is dealing with it, even is good humored about it. The deer are having a rough time, of course. The island is wrapped in the Gulf Stream current but that, too has been unusually "warm".

That would be the cue for you AGW fanboys to switch to the "Climate Change" mantra. Your AGW meme is taking hits right and left this season. Some of the faithful are having doubts, and another National election is looming, time to have one of them good ole "revival" meetings and remind the faithful AGW members that they need to buck up and support the AGW theory lest some Republican skunk sneaks in some snide comment about all the "warming" going on.

Why, can you imagine, there is even a vicious rumor going around that the Capital dome is wrapped in scaffolding and they are fitting some high tech insulation this year to keep everybody -ah- "cool".
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby Lore » Tue 17 Feb 2015, 07:47:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'I') understand that not all observed data agrees with the AGW theory. Such as for example the satellite infrared studies which show a 28-year long global cooling trend.


There has been no observed trend other then upwards by all the major temperature data sets over that period of time.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndependent studies using different software, different methods, and different data sets yield very similar results. The increase in temperatures since 1975 is a consistent feature of all reconstructions. This increase cannot be explained as an artifact of the adjustment process, the decrease in station numbers, or other non-climatological factors. Natural temperature measurements also confirm the general accuracy of the instrumental temperature record.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/surface ... vanced.htm


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'A')sk the citizens of Nantucket. They just got another 22" of Global Warming, and the power has been off and on again. They appear to be on the path of using record amounts of propane this season to deal with the AGW.


Correct, warm waters, an atmosphere more saturated with moisture will precipitate out in the form of snow when the temperature falls below freezing.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby jedrider » Tue 17 Feb 2015, 11:06:36

Great Pics: I was wondering where all our Western snow went.

That's Climate Change for yer!
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Feb 2015, 12:21:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')But the effects of ceasing to burn FF's are "huge" and "immediate". At least 5 billion humans starve, and all the American cities fold, for example. That is no theory, we KNOW what happens without cheap oil. It is only YOU genocidal AGW fanatics that want to kill that many people.


No, that's an untested hypothesis. Just as I could say that a controlled deescalation of fossil fuel use with a greater emphasis on alternatives would prevent a mass die off from happening.


I would say, there is no way that feeble alternative energies can substitute for powerful and cheap fossil fuels.

If you have some new insights the rest of us don't understand, please share. Because I believe that depending upon the alts gets us to about five billion dead. The other two billion might live, but only by accepting a much lower quality of life and eating many fewer calories. They would be the 1st world countries where the inhabitants have the extra income to pay for much more expensive petroleum fertilizers and pesticides and herbicides.

Everybody else starves. There are no equivalent substitutes for fossil energy. More expensive energy means people die as a result. They die because food is much rarer and more expensive without mechanized agriculture and petrochemicals.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby Lore » Tue 17 Feb 2015, 12:59:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')I would say, there is no way that feeble alternative energies can substitute for powerful and cheap fossil fuels.


I absolutely agree with that. As discussed here many times, they are called alternatives not substitutes for a reason and you will need a big mix of them along with a change in living to make up the difference. That can either be by choice or at some point an urgent requirement.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')If you have some new insights the rest of us don't understand, please share. Because I believe that depending upon the alts gets us to about five billion dead. The other two billion might live, but only by accepting a much lower quality of life and eating many fewer calories. They would be the 1st world countries where the inhabitants have the extra income to pay for much more expensive petroleum fertilizers and pesticides and herbicides.

Everybody else starves. There are no equivalent substitutes for fossil energy. More expensive energy means people die as a result. They die because food is much rarer and more expensive without mechanized agriculture and petrochemicals.


Where are you getting this 5 billion number from? How do you know this? Is there a failure of science somewhere to predict this number of casualties by averting ourselves to alternatives?

More expensive energy just means people will live with less of what they don't need and will have to concentrate on what they do need. Not really a bad thing in my estimation, unless you're a modern capitalist riding atop Wall Street.

An abrupt mass die off, in my opinion, would only occur if you suddenly turn off the energy spigot, or burn every carbon polluting fossil fuel in our kit. Which could result in nobody living.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby Keith_McClary » Tue 17 Feb 2015, 13:39:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', 'G')reat Pics: I was wondering where all our Western snow went.

That's Climate Change for yer!
I've been riding my bike around town here in the Canadian Rockies for a couple of weeks. The ski hill closed yesterday - in some years they were open into April.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Feb 2015, 23:01:03

Lore, the two billion who live are those who have more than enough today. The five billion who die have lower incomes. It used to be that 3rd world countries lived via primative farming and would not miss oil. But today mechanized agriculture has spread to the poorest countries, because it produces the cheapest food - and produces further overshoot population.

Without oil, India starves, China starves, Africa starves, and South America starves. North America, Europe, Russia, and Australia are left.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby Lore » Tue 17 Feb 2015, 23:45:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'L')ore, the two billion who live are those who have more than enough today. The five billion who die have lower incomes. It used to be that 3rd world countries lived via primative farming and would not miss oil. But today mechanized agriculture has spread to the poorest countries, because it produces the cheapest food - and produces further overshoot population.

Without oil, India starves, China starves, Africa starves, and South America starves. North America, Europe, Russia, and Australia are left.


It may come as a surprise to you, but the vast majority of the US population is probably less fit to survive a crisis without oil then many a third world person who really doesn't have much of it right now anyway.

As for India and China, they will starve once again without fossil fuel, or because of it unless they opt to cease their growth and adopt alternatives while conserving what's left of their basic resources.

However, you never answered my question within the context of alternatives. Certainly people with less of a carbon footprint can more easily substitute alternatives if and when they were made available. It would be us here in the Western world that would be jonesing for our ICE vehicles, toys and conveniences. A smooth transition means less people go belly up.

Bottom line is, the human race can survive without oil. Maybe not as many of us as we once were, or as foolishly extravagant either with our thoughtless use of what we have left.

To bring us back on topic, I don't really think science has failed to point all the above out.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby careinke » Wed 18 Feb 2015, 00:43:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', 'G')reat Pics: I was wondering where all our Western snow went.

That's Climate Change for yer!
I've been riding my bike around town here in the Canadian Rockies for a couple of weeks. The ski hill closed yesterday - in some years they were open into April.


We've had seven all time high recorded temps since the first of the year, and it is only the middle of February. Everything is coming out of dormancy and budding up, and it only the middle of February. We've had record high tides this year due to a change in weather patterns, and it's only the middle of February. Ski resorts are closed or have greatly reduced operations and will probably not re-open this "winter", and it is only the middle of February.

P.S. K.J. Thanks for implying how a cold Maine negates global warming. I knew some denier would bring it up. You've restored my faith in the ignorance of people.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby KaiserJeep » Wed 18 Feb 2015, 07:04:01

Thanks for defining every possible weather variation as a confirmation of AGW, careinke. You have established without any doubt whatsoever, the perfidy of AGW fanboys.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby KaiserJeep » Wed 18 Feb 2015, 17:51:50

P.S. The island of Nantucket is South and East of Cape Cod, and thus is part of Massachusetts, not Maine. They did try to secede from Massachusetts once upon a time when New Hampshire made them a better offer.
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Re: Science's Biggest Fail--Dilbert

Postby Keith_McClary » Wed 18 Feb 2015, 17:57:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')hanks for defining every possible weather variation as a confirmation of AGW, careinke. You have established without any doubt whatsoever, the perfidy of AGW fanboys.
You need to have your sarcasm detector checked.
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