[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'J')ust how soon the collapse happens is the basic question. Most guesses seem to be in the 2020-2030 range.

But economic recession is destroying demand for fuel and energy prices for both vehicle fuel and space heating are still dropping, postponing and prolonging the collapse. Once we enter a full-grown depression, we may have fuel for a few decades more, simply because of demand destruction.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'J')ust how soon the collapse happens is the basic question. Most guesses seem to be in the 2020-2030 range.

But economic recession is destroying demand for fuel and energy prices for both vehicle fuel and space heating are still dropping, postponing and prolonging the collapse. Once we enter a full-grown depression, we may have fuel for a few decades more, simply because of demand destruction.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '
')Industrial civilization is founded upon oil and other fossil fuels. Since fossil fuels are going into decline over the next couple of decades, it is only axiomatic that industrial civilization will also go into decline over the next couple of decades.

Remember this. Professor David Goodstein once said "I don't believe we can sustain our current population--much less the population in 20 to 30 years--without the use of petrochemicals". He is serious, and if you think about it, he is correct. The only reason we can support and feed our current population is because of oil-powered machinery and natural-gas based fertilizers used in modern agriculture.

Modern agriculture is basically the use of land to convert petroleum into food. The reason the population exploded during the 20th and 21st century was because of fossil fuels being used to drastically increase the food supply. And by drastically increasing the food supply by 3 to 4 times, the population simply exploded and grew very rapidly. But if take the fossil fuels away, the food supply will decrease. And with a diminishing food supply, the population will necessarily have to diminish as well. I will go as far as saying the population will rapidly diminish or collapse to under 2 billion people the moment fossil fuels become too scarce and cause food production to collapse.

[Peak_Yeast]

I read limits to growth when I was 11 years old - bought it at and old book store for the money I earned bringing out the morning newspaper. I think it made other people think I was a cynical person with crazy ideas. - For example I said that private carownership should be illegal since it will devastate our earth and all women should be allowed a max of 2 children before getting sterilized. - But i have never been depressed or sad because of this. I feel human"kind" deserves this - and somehow I feel outside humankind - Of course, I am annoyed that I will have to pay the same penalty as everybody else who were dumb as sh!t - but life is not fair and my life has been better than most. Also I am thankful that i will see the peak of human civilisation as well as live a part of it on the upside and part of it at the downside. Interesting times - INDEED.

I just hope I can hide and kill well enough when things get really dicey - since that is all that will matter if the best case scenario comes along - i.e. reduction to 500mil.ww.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '
')Industrial civilization is founded upon oil and other fossil fuels. Since fossil fuels are going into decline over the next couple of decades, it is only axiomatic that industrial civilization will also go into decline over the next couple of decades.

Remember this. Professor David Goodstein once said "I don't believe we can sustain our current population--much less the population in 20 to 30 years--without the use of petrochemicals". He is serious, and if you think about it, he is correct. The only reason we can support and feed our current population is because of oil-powered machinery and natural-gas based fertilizers used in modern agriculture.

Modern agriculture is basically the use of land to convert petroleum into food. The reason the population exploded during the 20th and 21st century was because of fossil fuels being used to drastically increase the food supply. And by drastically increasing the food supply by 3 to 4 times, the population simply exploded and grew very rapidly. But if take the fossil fuels away, the food supply will decrease. And with a diminishing food supply, the population will necessarily have to diminish as well. I will go as far as saying the population will rapidly diminish or collapse to under 2 billion people the moment fossil fuels become too scarce and cause food production to collapse.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')opulation will plummet. There is nothing we can do to prevent the population from crashing. All populations that go into overshoot experience a crash or die off.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', ' ')The phantom carrying capacity we now enjoy thanks to fossil fuels can be replaced by sustainable carrying capacity if we move to models that do not require the use of fossil fuels. This includes the use of perennials that do not need the yearly dose of ploughing, herbicides, pesticides and fertiliser.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', ' ')The phantom carrying capacity we now enjoy thanks to fossil fuels can be replaced by sustainable carrying capacity if we move to models that do not require the use of fossil fuels. This includes the use of perennials that do not need the yearly dose of ploughing, herbicides, pesticides and fertiliser.

[ralfy]

To add to what I said earlier, consider multiple crises amplifying each other: global warming, peak oil, financial crisis, environmental damage, etc. Consider multiple effects of these crises and other factors, including the possibility that most people are not used to working in agriculture, arms sales, military forces used to control resources, security forces used to confiscate property and control local civilian populations, antibiotic resistance, overpopulation due to refugees fleeing conflict-ridden sites or for other reasons, etc.

For more factors and problems, try the other threads of this forum.

Finally, a repost:

"Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')o add to what I said earlier, consider multiple crises amplifying each other: global warming, peak oil, financial crisis, environmental damage, etc. Consider multiple effects of these crises and other factors, including the possibility that most people are not used to working in agriculture, arms sales, military forces used to control resources, security forces used to confiscate property and control local civilian populations, antibiotic resistance, overpopulation due to refugees fleeing conflict-ridden sites or for other reasons, etc.

For more factors and problems, try the other threads of this forum.

Finally, a repost:

"Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

[Timo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')o add to what I said earlier, consider multiple crises amplifying each other: global warming, peak oil, financial crisis, environmental damage, etc. Consider multiple effects of these crises and other factors, including the possibility that most people are not used to working in agriculture, arms sales, military forces used to control resources, security forces used to confiscate property and control local civilian populations, antibiotic resistance, overpopulation due to refugees fleeing conflict-ridden sites or for other reasons, etc.

For more factors and problems, try the other threads of this forum.

Finally, a repost:

"Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', ' ')The phantom carrying capacity we now enjoy thanks to fossil fuels can be replaced by sustainable carrying capacity if we move to models that do not require the use of fossil fuels. This includes the use of perennials that do not need the yearly dose of ploughing, herbicides, pesticides and fertiliser.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
') You have to consider the yield in calories per acre. What perennial can come close to matching corn at 150 bu/acre and 125,000 calories per bushel.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') You have to consider the yield in calories per acre. What perennial can come close to matching corn at 150 bu/acre and 125,000 calories per bushel.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
') You have to consider the yield in calories per acre. What perennial can come close to matching corn at 150 bu/acre and 125,000 calories per bushel.

[PrestonSturges]

Pecans aren't bad either.

[DesuMaiden]

I believe the die-off is inevitable. The only thing you can do is be a survivor from this die off. Yes, over 90% of humanity is going to perish. But you can be a survivor amongst the under 10% of the population that survives.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'P')ecans aren't bad either.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'P')ecans aren't bad either.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'P')ecans aren't bad either.