[ralfy]

The issue is not just peak oil but that plus global warming, environmental damage, etc.

[KaiserJeep]

Peak Oil and all the other things you mention are symptoms of overpopulation. The population overshoot is the result of the human race doing what comes natural. Allow me to suggest that AGW, generic climate change, ecological damage, and all the various symptoms of too many people on one small planet, are all part of "Mother Earth's Plan" for her brightest children.

After all, there is nothing unnatural about humankind - just the natural result of hominid evolution.

Shocking as the thought may be, the Industrial Age was also part of Nature's plan.

[DesuMaiden]

Nobody has been able to prove why this die off will not happen. I'm 100% certain this die off will happen. And just turned 25 today. It is entirely possible I will not live past my 40th birthday unless I can take drastic actions to prepare for peak oil.

[Hawkcreek]

Happy Birthday, DesuM.
I hope you will have many more.

Looks like the die-off has already started in developed nations. Many of them have declining populations. Even the US population would be going down without immigration.
You need to start reading John Michael Greer's essays.
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/
He describes the slooow, but jerky decline of our civilization in a very believable way. Probably won't happen overnight, and you will probably get to see a lot more birthdays. May not have modern conveniences for some of them, but life may be more fun without all the things that speed it up.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'N')obody has been able to prove why this die off will not happen. I'm 100% certain this die off will happen. And just turned 25 today. It is entirely possible I will not live past my 40th birthday unless I can take drastic actions to prepare for peak oil.

[Observerbrb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'N')obody has been able to prove why this die off will not happen. I'm 100% certain this die off will happen. And just turned 25 today. It is entirely possible I will not live past my 40th birthday unless I can take drastic actions to prepare for peak oil.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'N')obody has been able to prove why this die off will not happen. I'm 100% certain this die off will happen. And just turned 25 today. It is entirely possible I will not live past my 40th birthday unless I can take drastic actions to prepare for peak oil.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Observerbrb', '
')I remember reading about this PO stuff for first time more than 10 years ago. In 2004, Oil doomers were predicating imminent and massive collapse. You could have done what some of them did: Worrying about an imminent collapse for more than 10 years, while the rest of people just were doing fine and enjoying their lives. In that case, you would have lived 10 years of misery, whereas the others would have lived 10 years of LIFE.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'N')obody has been able to prove why this die off will not happen. I'm 100% certain this die off will happen. And just turned 25 today. It is entirely possible I will not live past my 40th birthday unless I can take drastic actions to prepare for peak oil.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'N')obody has been able to prove why this die off will not happen. I'm 100% certain this die off will happen. And just turned 25 today. It is entirely possible I will not live past my 40th birthday unless I can take drastic actions to prepare for peak oil.

[Timo]

Tanada, good advice on moving north to a small population center. For myself, however, i'm going the opposite direction and am planning on moving south, but also to a small population center. The underlying rationale is the same.

Observerbrb, well said. There is a very big difference between being a doomer/prepper, and putting your money/life/time where your mouth is and taking responsible actions to offset and even prevent your fears from becoming reality. Everyone has a role to play in this world. If everyone takes responsible, productive actions to safeguard our collective future, there is no need for doomer panic to ever set in. Self-isolation in preparation for the worst-case scenario is the equivalent of burying your head in the sand, and ignoring your own abilities to make a difference for yourself, and others, as well.

[KaiserJeep]

Just how soon the collapse happens is the basic question. Most guesses seem to be in the 2020-2030 range.

But economic recession is destroying demand for fuel and energy prices for both vehicle fuel and space heating are still dropping, postponing and prolonging the collapse. Once we enter a full-grown depression, we may have fuel for a few decades more, simply because of demand destruction.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'J')ust how soon the collapse happens is the basic question. Most guesses seem to be in the 2020-2030 range.

But economic recession is destroying demand for fuel and energy prices for both vehicle fuel and space heating are still dropping, postponing and prolonging the collapse. Once we enter a full-grown depression, we may have fuel for a few decades more, simply because of demand destruction.

[Timo]

Sorry to be the lone bright spot in my optimism here, but alternatives to fossile fuels are being developed right now. As FFs decline in abundance, sure that will have an affect on industrial civilization, but as that happens, alternatives will fill the gap to maintain some resemblance of the status quo. Sure, things will be different, and it may not be as prosporous as what we have now, but that does not mean that civilization will collapse. Parts of civilization? Maybe. Totally? I don't see it. Technologies are being developed at a faster pace right now than at any other point in time in human history. If there is a void in the means of production, our capitalistic system will fill that void to maintain production of products that civilization depends on to continue. Color me simple, but as bad as things look from the bottom of the hole, our hole doesn't necessarily need to get that much deeper. In fact, i'm much more worried about AGW being the cause of the fall of civilization than the depletion of fossil fuels. Actually, the depletion of fossil fuels would probably forestall AGW to no small degree, and enhance the future of civilization, altogether. Worst case scenario would be that Elon Musk takes us all to Mars in an electric hyperloop.

[Strummer]

Collapse always starts at the peripheries, and the peripheries are already collapsing. Witness Egypt, Syria or Ukraine. However, that doesn't mean that the collapse will necessarily reach the center. The center (the industrialized western countries) have a lot of resources and power and can simply throw the periphery overboard to save their own people. Long before a die-off in the West can happen, the West can switch into an aggressive facsist colonialist mode and sacrifice the rest of the world instead of sacrificing itself. If a die-off happens, then hundreds of millions of Egyptians, Bangladeshis, Iraqis, Yemenis, etc... will die of starvation first long before a single citizen of the US or EU is even marginally affected.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', 'S')orry to be the lone bright spot in my optimism here, but alternatives to fossile fuels are being developed right now. As FFs decline in abundance, sure that will have an affect on industrial civilization, but as that happens, alternatives will fill the gap to maintain some resemblance of the status quo. Sure, things will be different, and it may not be as prosporous as what we have now, but that does not mean that civilization will collapse. Parts of civilization? Maybe. Totally? I don't see it. Technologies are being developed at a faster pace right now than at any other point in time in human history. If there is a void in the means of production, our capitalistic system will fill that void to maintain production of products that civilization depends on to continue. Color me simple, but as bad as things look from the bottom of the hole, our hole doesn't necessarily need to get that much deeper. In fact, i'm much more worried about AGW being the cause of the fall of civilization than the depletion of fossil fuels. Actually, the depletion of fossil fuels would probably forestall AGW to no small degree, and enhance the future of civilization, altogether. Worst case scenario would be that Elon Musk takes us all to Mars in an electric hyperloop.

[Timo]

I confess, i did not read the book. Therefore, i can't comment on the book, itself. My comments were reactions to other comments made here. I'm sure the book makes very strong arguments to support its conclusions. To various degrees, many or most of its arguments may actually prove correct, but as the title of this thread suggest, i do not agree that a catastrophic die-off is inevitable, regardless of what the book says. That said, i do agree that large portions of the human population will suffer tremendously in the coming years. A growing population, all dependent on limited and declining resources, clearly suggests that this will occur. However, the scope of that suffering will be relative to the size of the global population, itself. The more people you cram into a small, limited space, the more people are requisitely affected by the limitations of that space. In other words, a bus full of people that drives over a cliff will have more casualties than a bus driving over a cliff with only one passenger. The more people are born, the more people will die. Everything is relative to the whole. There are no absolutes.