[Shaved Monkey]

or

[Revi]

I came across this in Shortonoil's posting.
Optimistic estimates place the world's total petroleum reserve at 4,300 billion barrels. Of that quantity the ETP model predicts that it will be possible to extract 1,760.5 billion barrels.

So therefore I have to revise it to 210,000 miles left per vehicle on the planet.

That's the URR, so it will undoubtedly be far worse than that, but it's a kind of best case scenario.

[Pops]

Except the "ETP" is wrong.

And not only wrong but it shows just how wrong it is by affecting such precision - he has the total oil consumption of the world, forever, calculated down to .5 billion barrels - that's 5 days consumption!

LOLOL, if he is that good, why is he sharing the info when he should be rolling in his billions on a yacht somewhere?


ETA:I guess I should say his precision is .1 billion barrels, approx. 1 day's consumption

[DesuMaiden]

I would also like to point out that it is unlikely we will ever create another 800 million new vehicles because cars require a huge amount of oil to create. It takes 27 to 54 barrels of oil to produce the average 5-person vehicle. Bigger vehicles like trucks and buses require much more oil to produce. It probably takes hundreds of barrels of oil to create a truck or bus because they are much larger than an average 5-person vehicle.

There is no way we can have 800 million new internal-combustion engine vehicles because there ain't going to be enough oil to make them. There is also no way we can replace the 800 million internal-combustion engine vehicles with electric cars because there ain't going to be enough oil to make those electric vehicles with. It requires a huge amount of resources, namely oil, to replace all of the current internal-combustion engine vehicles with electric vehicles.

While electric cars sound good in theory, their implementation is severely limited by the amount of resources we have available for making them. Namely our oil resources because all cars (regardless of their power source) require oil in their manufacture. But there ain't enough oil to produce 800 million electric-powered vehicles.

Also there is the issue of the batteries of electric cars. The batteries of electric cars are made from lithium, but there isn't enough lithium to make that many batteries with.

[Pops]

That's only about 10 years of production @2014 rates. We'd better hope that production doesn't fall to zero in that time.
http://www.statista.com/statistics/2668 ... ince-2009/

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')hat's only about 10 years of production @2014 rates. We'd better hope that production doesn't fall to zero in that time.
http://www.statista.com/statistics/2668 ... ince-2009/

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'W')hat makes you think production will fall to zero?
The premiss of the thread?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'A')lso, the production of what are you referring to?

[Revi]

This is just a little back of the envelope math, but the back end of peak oil is going to be nasty because the decline rate is going to be so steep. Everything left will be harder to get and take so much energy to get it won't be worth it. I think people will abandon oil far quicker than we think. We'll be back to oxcarts in no time. The idea that cars will continue is ridiculous. Maybe we'll be able to keep some diesel trucks on the road to transport things, but keeping everyone motorized is not going to be possible.

[DesuMaiden]

Here's another statistic. It takes 27 to 54 barrels of oil to construct the average 5-person vehicle. There are around 800 million internal-combustion powered vehicles on the road. So it will take around 30 to 40 billion barrels of oil to construct another 800 million cars. I don't think we have that much oil, however.

[Subjectivist]

A cheap car like my old Honda Civic last 15+ years so there is no reason to panic about replacing 800,000,000 cars overnight. You need to build 54 million a year to replace them as they wear out, 4.5 million a month or just over a million a week spread out over every factory building cars on Earth. Given that oil will not disappear overnight you don't have to build all electric, or all CNG or all Ammonia fuel, you build a combination of fuel types to bridge the gas/diesel supply gap for new cars. Farmers can easily use ammonia fueled engines for farm equipment and trucks, short range commuters can use pure electric, long range commuters can use CNG or hybrid plug in electrics.

[ralfy]

According to this article, there are around 1 billion cars worldwide:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/08/23 ... 34291.html

and that the U.S. alone has over 230 million. For China to follow the U.S. in terms of cars per capita, it will require a billion vehicles. Also, in order to have 2 billion cars worldwide, oil production has to rise to around 120 Mb/d.

In addition, I think the numbers refer to sedans and light trucks. If all other vehicles are included, including motorcycles, delivery trucks, buses, etc., then the numbers will certainly be higher.

Finally, the needed oil production might refer to fuel used to provide power to vehicles. If oil is also needed to manufacture them and many more goods that families will need or want besides passenger vehicles (such as appliances) then even more oil, energy, and material resources will be needed.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'A')ccording to this article, there are around 1 billion cars worldwide:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/08/23 ... 34291.html

and that the U.S. alone has over 230 million. For China to follow the U.S. in terms of cars per capita, it will require a billion vehicles. Also, in order to have 2 billion cars worldwide, oil production has to rise to around 120 Mb/d.

In addition, I think the numbers refer to sedans and light trucks. If all other vehicles are included, including motorcycles, delivery trucks, buses, etc., then the numbers will certainly be higher.

Finally, the needed oil production might refer to fuel used to provide power to vehicles. If oil is also needed to manufacture them and many more goods that families will need or want besides passenger vehicles (such as appliances) then even more oil, energy, and material resources will be needed.

[Revi]

I think there are around 1.2 billion vehicles on the roads, but that's just an estimate. It was a very popular way of getting around, but then so were buckboards. I think we'll have to abandon or recycle them, and move on to other ways of getting around. I like small vehicles like this:

[ralfy]

Also,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cycle_rickshaw

[Revi]

We might be abandoning our cars already.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

[Rod_Cloutier]

The transmission went on my 2006 Chevy Uplander last month. I had a decision, sink big $$ into fixing it or buy another car. I did a lot of thinking and bought a new 2015 Dodge caravan. 84 month term on the loan. (7 years)

I figure the economy will collapse before I've paid it off. After that will I want to buy another one? So yeah, we're on our last cars.

[Revi]

Since it costs the average person in the US about $9000 per year to keep a car going a lot of us can't afford it any more.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nati ... s/2070397/

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', 'T')he transmission went on my 2006 Chevy Uplander last month. I had a decision, sink big $$ into fixing it or buy another car. I did a lot of thinking and bought a new 2015 Dodge caravan. 84 month term on the loan. (7 years)

I figure the economy will collapse before I've paid it off. After that will I want to buy another one? So yeah, we're on our last cars.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', 'T')he transmission went on my 2006 Chevy Uplander last month. I had a decision, sink big $$ into fixing it or buy another car. I did a lot of thinking and bought a new 2015 Dodge caravan. 84 month term on the loan. (7 years)

I figure the economy will collapse before I've paid it off. After that will I want to buy another one? So yeah, we're on our last cars.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')
So let's see. After one Chevy fails before 10 years of service, buy a Dodge. Get a 7 year loan. Plan on the world blowing up before the loan is payed off (does endlessly being wrong ever impact doomers?).