[Tikib]

Cmon man give us the stuff we know you have more.

[DesuMaiden]

It only proves that Saudi Arabia has reached or passed peak oil and now are in decline. Also there own domestic use of oil is increasing (because of an increasing population and also increasing per capita usage of oil), so they even have less oil to export to the rest of the world. When Saudi Arabia is no longer able to export oil to the rest of the world, the world will be in quite a shock. But it is no surprise this day will come because Saudi Arabia's oil reserves are not infinite. They will eventually peak and decline like what happened to the USA in the 1970s. And if Saudi Arabia peaks and declines that means the whole world will peak and decline because Saudi Arabia contains 1/4 of the world's oil reserves. Saudi Arabia contains the largest oil reserves on this planet.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t only proves that Saudi Arabia has reached or passed peak oil and now are in decline.

[ROCKMAN]

Saudi EXPORTS (not production) were declining long before the drop in prices and lower demand. And now the Red Sea refinery JV with China alone has the potential to reduce KSA oil EXPORTS by 600,000 bopd.

Cue westexas and ELM.

[westexas]

As annual Brent oil prices doubled from $55 in 2005 to an average of $110 for 2011 to 2013 inclusive, annual Saudi net oil exports have been below the 2005 annual rate of 9.1 mbpd (total petroleum liquids + other liquids, EIA) for 8 straight years (and apparently 9 years, through 2014). Their net exports averaged 8.7 mbpd for 2011 to 2013, as annual Brent crude oil prices averaged $110.

While one can argue that they chose to reduce their net exports after 2005, I have a hard time seeing lower demand as an explanation in the 2011 to 2013 time frame. Note that as annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005, Saudi net exports increased from 7.1 mbpd in 2002 to 9.1 mbpd in 2005.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t only proves that Saudi Arabia has reached or passed peak oil and now are in decline.

[ROCKMAN]

D - From the perspective of us heavy oil users perhaps we should start focusing more on POE (Peak Oil Exports) rather then POP (Peak Oil Production). In the future how much oil OPEC exports will become more critical then their production rates. Consider Indonesia. They hit their POP in 1995. But they reached POE four years earlier in 1991. And in 2009 they became a net oil importer and essentially dropped from the list of OPEC countries. We see lots of discussions about different oil exporters increasing or decreasing PRODUCTION in the future. But what should be of more interest to us oil gluttons is the increase or decrease in oil EXPORTS. Such as the potential for Saudi Arabia to DECREASE their oil exports by more than 200 MILLION BBLS PER YEAR now that their 600,000 bopd refinery JV with China has started up.

[TheEnergyMan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t only proves that Saudi Arabia has reached or passed peak oil and now are in decline.

[westexas]

To recap, as annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005 (approximately doubling), Saudi net exports increased from 7.1 mbpd in 2002 to 9.1 mbpd in 2005.

As annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $55 in 2005 to an average of $110 for 2011 to 2013 inclusive (exactly doubling), Saudi net exports declined, as the Saudi Aramco CEO admitted, to an average rate of 8.7 mbpd for 2011 to 2013 inclusive.

[vtsnowedin]

The more pertinent fact is that the total of crude oil exported anywhere in the world peaked in 2005 and is in decline. So as KSA reduces it's exports there is already nowhere else to turn to.
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/i ... &unit=TBPD

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'T')he more pertinent fact is that the total of crude oil exported anywhere in the world peaked in 2005 and is in decline. So as KSA reduces it's exports there is already nowhere else to turn to.
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/i ... &unit=TBPD

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') am not so sure of that snowyguy;

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��THE Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” This intriguing prediction is often heard in energy circles these days. If greens were the only people to be expressing such thoughts, the notion might be dismissed as Utopian. However, the quotation is from Sheikh Zaki Yamani, a Saudi Arabian who served as his country's oil minister three decades ago. His words are rich in irony.

[rockdoc123]

One of the issues is what all comprises demand. Some here like to think of demand for Saudi oil in terms of "world demand". The concept isn't the same. SA exports crude that has specific quality issues that makes it high demand in some areas and lower demand in others. We saw this quite well when SA stepped in to make up for the 300,000 bbls that were lost to Libya insurgency. That particular oil was sold into the European market and SA did not have the crude with the same characteristics available but they were able to trade their crude for the needed crude type elsewhere.

So demand for SA crude is of course rooted in world wide demand but it is just as importantly driven by who needs the type of crude they are producing. The Safaniya heavy crude and the Shabah super light crude have specific markets and hence compete with different sources.

In any event my original comment of trying to read anything into Saudi production capability based on a decrease in exports is rather silly, especially since they recently dropped the price for their exported crude to several markets. If they didn't have the oil available they wouldn't be selling what they did have at a discount. My point I made a long time ago still stands. When someone wants to buy SA crude at a high price and they can't deliver then you know there is a problem.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('westexas', 'T')o recap, as annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005 (approximately doubling), Saudi net exports increased from 7.1 mbpd in 2002 to 9.1 mbpd in 2005.

As annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $55 in 2005 to an average of $110 for 2011 to 2013 inclusive (exactly doubling), Saudi net exports declined, as the Saudi Aramco CEO admitted, to an average rate of 8.7 mbpd for 2011 to 2013 inclusive.

[marmico]

To recap, as annual Brent crude oil prices rose from $12.76 in 1998 to $24.99 in 2002 (approximately doubling), Saudi net exports decreased from 8.03 mbpd in 1998 to 7.13 mbpd in 2002.

Another example of negative correlation between the Brent price and Saudi net exports.

Westexas is a data cherry picker.

[rockdoc123]

They are still running a deficit on spending. And the King has said it is mainly about diversification.

Saudi Arabia to boost 2017 spending as it cuts into huge state deficit

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')audi Arabia said on Thursday it had successfully cut into its huge state budget deficit this year and will increase government spending in 2017 to boost flagging economic growth.

The deficit shrank to 297 billion riyals ($79 billion) in 2016. That was well below a record 367 billion gap in 2015, and below the government's projection in its original 2016 budget plan of a deficit of 326 billion riyals.

"Our economy, thank God, is sturdy and it has enough strength to cope with the current economic and financial challenges," King Salman said in a nationally televised address to introduce the budget for 2017.

The financial challenges for Saudi Arabia stem largely from the fall in the global price of oil over the past 2½ years.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Malicious software attacked a safety system in August at Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, in what is the first-ever example of malware targeting the computer systems designed to prevent a disaster at an industrial facility. The attack was first described by the computer security firm FireEye in a blog post last week, which did not name the victim of the attack. But a confidential report obtained by Foreign Policy and authored by Area 1 Security, a computer security firm founded by veterans of the U.S. National Security Agency, identifies Aramco as the victim of the attack. In a statement, Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s national oil company and a pillar of its economy, denied the attack took place: “Saudi Aramco corporate and plants networks were not part of any cyber security attack or breach.” FireEye declined to comment on its clients or the

[Tanada]

Does anyone know what the real break even profit is for KSA? I see guesstimates ranging anywhere from $65/bbl all the way up to $115/bbl. I don't normally think in terms of a nation with only one source of income, the USA has taxes on a great number of things each generating a unique income stream.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oes anyone know what the real break even profit is for KSA? I see guesstimates ranging anywhere from $65/bbl all the way up to $115/bbl. I don't normally think in terms of a nation with only one source of income, the USA has taxes on a great number of things each generating a unique income stream.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
(Reuters) - (John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.) Saudi Aramco’s [IPO-ARAM.SE] partial privatization has loomed over the oil market for the last two years, influencing expectations about oil prices, but what if it never happens? The possibility of selling a minority stake in the giant oil company was first mentioned in a newspaper interview published in January 2016 by then-Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The possibility merited little more than a brief mention in a section about economic reforms, diversification and privatization of state assets. (“Interview with Muhammad bin Salman”, Economist, Jan. 6, 2016). But this passing reference has spawned an enormous amount of activity from consultants, bankers, stock exchanges, governments and journalists all competing to benefit from the sale of the century. Saudi Aramco has reportedly prepared a set of corporate accounts to international standards and .