Here's the car we're driving now:
PeakOil is You
We are on our last cars.
Re: We are on our last cars.
by Revi » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 15:14:08
We drove it around town for a couple of years. It didn't mind hills. It would slow down a little, but it would get up them.
Here's the car we're driving now:
Here's the car we're driving now:
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: We are on our last cars.
by vtsnowedin » Mon 26 Jan 2015, 19:48:45
I recently drove from Vermont to Atlanta Georgia with my daughter in her Toyota Camry. We drove through snow , sleet ,freezing rain, traffic congestion and seven lane 80 mph bumper cars. I can't imagine doing that in your car.
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Re: We are on our last cars.
by tom_s2 » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 05:19:50
Hi Revi,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he way I came to this conclusion was 1 trillion barrels divided by the 1.2 billion vehicles = 833 barrels x 42 gallons in a barrel, divided by 3 (refined about 1/3 comes out as gasoline), times 20 miles per gallon = 233,000.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he way I came to this conclusion was 1 trillion barrels divided by the 1.2 billion vehicles = 833 barrels x 42 gallons in a barrel, divided by 3 (refined about 1/3 comes out as gasoline), times 20 miles per gallon = 233,000.
I would guess there are at least 2 trillion barrels of oil remaining. This is hard to say because nobody really knows how much oil remains in the middle east, or how much will ultimately be extracted from tar sands etc. However the figure of 1 trillion barrels is extremely pessimistic. Bear in mind that Hubbert curves etc are excluding unconventional oil and have been systematically too pessimistic in the past.
Furthermore, I expect people will respond by buying Toyota Priuses etc as oil becomes more expensive. Probably people will retire some gas guzzlers like SUVs before the end of their useful lives.
Plugging in those figures (2 trillion barrels at 35 mpg), I get ~816,700 miles remaining per car or car-replacement. At 9,000 miles driven per year, that leaves approximately 90 years of driving left at current rates (which of course won't be sustained in gasoline-powered cars).
Also, I'd guess plug-in cars will take off some time during the 2020s. Almost all major manufacturers are introducing plug-in cars now. Their sales are modest right now (about 1%), but that will change as gasoline becomes more expensive and EVs cheaper during coming decades. I think EVs will ultimately become cost-competitive with oil at $100/barrel, even if EVs do not have any special incentives. As a result I think there will be a shift to EVs as oil becomes more expensive than that.
I don't think we're on our last cars now. The only way we'd be on our last cars is if all three of the following assumptions are correct: 1) no unconventional oil is exploited and we extract only 1 trillion more barrels; 2) there is no improvement in fuel efficiency as oil becomes more expensive; 3) there is no switch to EVs in coming decades as gasoline becomes more expensive.
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Re: We are on our last cars.
by Lore » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 06:09:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'I') recently drove from Vermont to Atlanta Georgia with my daughter in her Toyota Camry. We drove through snow , sleet ,freezing rain, traffic congestion and seven lane 80 mph bumper cars. I can't imagine doing that in your car.
Unfortunatly here in the US we lack the proper mass transportation for such trips. It would be nice to have every village and town connected by rail. Then rent a vehicle such as above for the short urban hauls.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: We are on our last cars.
by Pops » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 09:29:33
Tom, you say we won't run out for 90 years? I think that is totally pessimistic, oil will last much longer than that, twice as long easily, it may never run out in fact.
If there are 2 trillion barrels left (4T URR), we've used less than half. Since we are already resorting to fracking, deep water, arctic and x-heavy, it seems pretty obvious that the majority of the next half probably won't be drilled at all but will need to be mined and processed just to make it flow, before it can even be refined.
Unfortunately oil is priced based on the flow matching the demand, when the flow falls (peak oil) price rises.
The problem with peak oil isn't necessarily no gas to get to the store but no reason to go.
How fast do you think this is gonna flow?
Compared to this
If there are 2 trillion barrels left (4T URR), we've used less than half. Since we are already resorting to fracking, deep water, arctic and x-heavy, it seems pretty obvious that the majority of the next half probably won't be drilled at all but will need to be mined and processed just to make it flow, before it can even be refined.
Unfortunately oil is priced based on the flow matching the demand, when the flow falls (peak oil) price rises.
The problem with peak oil isn't necessarily no gas to get to the store but no reason to go.
How fast do you think this is gonna flow?
Compared to this
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: We are on our last cars.
by Revi » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 16:32:18
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'I') recently drove from Vermont to Atlanta Georgia with my daughter in her Toyota Camry. We drove through snow , sleet ,freezing rain, traffic congestion and seven lane 80 mph bumper cars. I can't imagine doing that in your car.
Of course not. This is not a vehicle to go very far or very fast, but it does get 200 mpg equivalent. Those of us on this site know that things are going to change and driving around at 80 mpg in individual steel boxes isn't going to be possible pretty soon. We have two regular cars as well, but this little experiment shows that there is another way of getting around a town using much less gasoline. It costs a lot less also. It only costs about $10 to drive around for a year. Insurance is about $125, and maintenance is practically nothing, so it would be possible for people who can't afford a regular car to get around in one of these. They probably won't , but it's possible.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: We are on our last cars.
by Lore » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 17:56:48
As they say, it beats walking!
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: We are on our last cars.
by ralfy » Tue 27 Jan 2015, 23:34:51
As explained earlier, it's not so much reserves as rate of flow that matters.
Some more points to consider:
Cars, including those that do not run primarily on FFs, are made and even delivered using FFs.
FFs for much of the world are used significantly for manufacturing, food production, and transport of various necessities.
Some more points to consider:
Cars, including those that do not run primarily on FFs, are made and even delivered using FFs.
FFs for much of the world are used significantly for manufacturing, food production, and transport of various necessities.
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Re: We are on our last cars.
by Shaved Monkey » Wed 28 Jan 2015, 03:56:07
As I am a white middle class 1st worlder I will probably have a car after the 3rd world cant afford to pay for petrol to fill up theres.
I imagine I will probably have 1 more possibly 2 more cars.
They will use less fuel than the one I have now
I only spend $300(before price drop) worth of fuel a year and $1200 on insurance and registration,so I have a fair way to go before I cant afford to drive even if fuel prices go up by factors of of 5 or 10X.(which will knock out plenty of demand.
The electric bikes will take up a lot of slack though.
But I imagine motels may be pretty cheap/desperate if fuel prices go through the roof.
I imagine I will probably have 1 more possibly 2 more cars.
They will use less fuel than the one I have now
I only spend $300(before price drop) worth of fuel a year and $1200 on insurance and registration,so I have a fair way to go before I cant afford to drive even if fuel prices go up by factors of of 5 or 10X.(which will knock out plenty of demand.
The electric bikes will take up a lot of slack though.
But I imagine motels may be pretty cheap/desperate if fuel prices go through the roof.
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Re: We are on our last cars.
by Revi » Thu 29 Jan 2015, 12:03:28
We may be able to figure something else out, but we had better get figuring soon. I like the idea of living in a place where you can walk around in case there is no alternative. It would be nice if this place had a regular market and places to work that can be walked to. We'll see...
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: We are on our last cars.
by ralfy » Thu 29 Jan 2015, 22:14:22
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', 'A')s I am a white middle class 1st worlder I will probably have a car after the 3rd world cant afford to pay for petrol to fill up theres.
I imagine I will probably have 1 more possibly 2 more cars.
They will use less fuel than the one I have now
I only spend $300(before price drop) worth of fuel a year and $1200 on insurance and registration,so I have a fair way to go before I cant afford to drive even if fuel prices go up by factors of of 5 or 10X.(which will knock out plenty of demand.
The electric bikes will take up a lot of slack though.
But I imagine motels may be pretty cheap/desperate if fuel prices go through the roof.
I imagine I will probably have 1 more possibly 2 more cars.
They will use less fuel than the one I have now
I only spend $300(before price drop) worth of fuel a year and $1200 on insurance and registration,so I have a fair way to go before I cant afford to drive even if fuel prices go up by factors of of 5 or 10X.(which will knock out plenty of demand.
The electric bikes will take up a lot of slack though.
But I imagine motels may be pretty cheap/desperate if fuel prices go through the roof.
This has actually been the case for decades. The catch is that the manufacture, transport, use, and maintenance of passenger vehicles require extensive infrastructure, use of FFs, JIT systems, and significant levels of debt.
In addition, many of the components needed for these processes and systems are manufactured in developing countries, where middle classes are growing. This explains why middle classes in rich countries are experiencing greater difficulties concerning wealth and employment while counterparts in the rest of the world are consuming more, as seen in growing sales for cars, appliances, cement, and others.
Another irony is that the income and returns of investment earned by the current global middle class (around 15 pct of the world's population) may ultimately be dependent on profits earned from more sales of goods and services to a growing consumer market, and that includes the same middle classes in developing countries.
Thus, in order to have his car, house, appliances, and many other middle class conveniences, the member of the middle class will have to make sure that more of these conveniences are sold to a growing global middle class.
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