[Peak_Yeast]

haha pstar - nice chart. Well he is sorta right. It brings me back to university - first year. There was a popular girl in the class and whenever the teacher asked for the result of some calculation she would have her hand up immediately.

EVERY single time she was asked about the result she would come up with the exact opposite. I dont know how it was possible - but i tell you it happened! And it was incredibly funny too...

Yergin is not so funny, but he has the same inbred ability it seems.

[dashster]

"and you move on to a whole series of books that say essentially, read history or you don’t know the present. "

Yergin and the Cornucopians like to try and debunk the idea of Peak Oil by citing past predictions by a variety of folks that oil will "run out" in some region or another. Past failed predictions about oil shortages will be a major part of their argument. Like someone way back when saying that there would be no oil found west of the Mississippi. But relying on history to predict the future with regard to a finite substance that depletes with usage by an ever-increasing population is probably not the right way to go. Or is it? Historically, oil wells, oil fields, oil regions, and oil countries peak. Decline rates and capping wells are consistent historical events . Oil field discoveries are historical and they peaked in the 1960's. And there is the historical makeup of the world's reserves (which Cornucopians will site as not only being many years worth of usage, but growing faster than usage). Historically it was light oil. Now it is mostly tar sands and heavy oil.

It seems like history should show people that there are problems looming, but they only focus on the parts of history that help them think everything is rosy with oil and ignore the parts that don't.

[C8]

well many PO folks called Yergin a ton of nasty names 7 years ago. I recall how Kunstler often referred to him as a tool. Anybody who went on The Oil Drum and suggested that the US could out produce the 1970's peak was laughed at or gang raped by posters while the mods looked the other way. Hubbert was seen as an infallible god and doom was guaranteed within 5 years. All kinds of authoritative looking analysis was made by people who had NO experience in the oil industry, but they produced tons of "sciencey" looking charts. PO people believed an arch druid, an actuary, an architect critic, a unemployed Russian engineer living on a boat.

The problem with the PO community was that it fell into groupthink in a very, very hard way. Anyone who suggested flaws in the official analysis became persona non grata- it was the 180 degree opposite of a true scientific community. Thus followed the rise of the PO guru's with their groupies that still exist today.

The fundamental problem with the PO community is that it does not respect real science and real skepticism- the dialogue has become a forgone conclusion looking for evidence to support it. Its a shame because the subject is actually quite fascinating.

Yergin did turn out to be right and his detractors should be learning from this- not denying it.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ergin did turn out to be right and his detractors should be learning from this- not denying it.

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')Yergin did turn out to be right and his detractors should be learning from this- not denying it.

[shallow sand]

The Prize is a great book.

It seems like once a person forms an opinion, he or she is loathe to change it, no matter what takes place as time goes on. This seems very true with the future of oil.

I do think it is noteworthy when people who have a strong opinion, such as Yergin, admit what he did in that the current price cannot sustain production for any period of time. Kind of like when Stephen Schork says the current price of oil has entered the, "stupid zone".

[DesuMaiden]

As Michael Ruppert once said, Daniel Yergin is a liar and a shill for big oil companies. He can't be trusted at all.

[KaiserJeep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'A')s Michael Ruppert once said, Daniel Yergin is a liar and a shill for big oil companies. He can't be trusted at all.

[Withnail]

When the dust settles I think we'll see that the shale oil boom caused a lot of damage not only to itself but also to other oil producing areas like the UK's North Sea as prices hurtled downwards.

Lots of layoffs at the moment.

So then you're in a position of having to rebuild your skills base when prices eventually start to recover.

[Quinny]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2912453/BP-cuts-300-jobs-North-Sea-oil-crisis-Bleak-outlook-industry-laid-bare-layoffs-price-barrel-continues-fall.html

My mates just been laid off.

[Withnail]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', '[')url]http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2912453/BP-cuts-300-jobs-North-Sea-oil-crisis-Bleak-outlook-industry-laid-bare-layoffs-price-barrel-continues-fall.html[/url]

My mates just been laid off.

[Tanada]

Despite the fact that so many in the Peak Oil community discount everything he says it sounds as if Mr. Yergin has the ear of the President Elect and will have at least a temporary period of influence. Until or unless he loses that ear Daniel Yergin will be a person of influence for the next year or years and we should review what it is he is likely to advise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')resident-elect Donald Trump, whose populist economic message helped carry him to the White House, on Friday named a group of elite business leaders to an economic advisory forum.

The group will include the former chief executive of General Electric, the leader of Boston Consulting Group, and Daniel Yergin, founder of Cambridge Energy Research Associates whose history of the oil business won him the Pulitzer Prize.

The President’s Strategic and Policy Forum will provide input on “how government policy impacts economic growth, job creation, and productivity,” according to a statement from the New York investment firm Blackstone, whose founder and chief executive, Stephen Schwarzman, will chair the 16-person council.

Other participants will include:

■ Yergin, whose company was acquired in 2004 by IHS Energy, which later merged with London-based Markit. Yergin is a vice chairman with IHS Markit.

A Massachusetts native, Welch is an ardent Republican who supported Trump ahead of the election. But he called on Twitter for the party to replace Trump after a 2005 video surfaced in which Trump bragged about kissing and groping women without consent. Welch ran General Electric, which moved from Connecticut to Boston this year, between 1981 and 2001.

Barra, meanwhile, had been considered as a potential vice presidential choice for Trump’s Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, according to internal campaign emails that were made public by Wikileaks.

And Lesser, who lives in New York but whose global consulting firm is based in Boston, donated to the Clinton campaign, according to federal election records.

President Barack Obama has his own Council on Jobs and Competitiveness made up of business leaders who provide him with economic advice. That panel has been chaired by Welch’s successor at General Electric, Jeff Immelt.

Trump’s forum will meet for the first time in early February, shortly after his inauguration. It will meet with Trump “frequently,” the statement said.

Adam Vaccaro can be reached at adam.vaccaro@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter at @adamtvaccaro.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ergin almost single-handedly destroyed the peak oil message.

[hvacman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')�� Mary Barra, chief executive of General Motors;

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
If the global oil market suddenly loses Venezuela's 2 million barrels of daily oil production, it would be "a big shock to the system," according to Dan Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. "It would certainly be a very tight market, because of course you already have production restraints by OPEC and non-OPEC," Yergin told CNBC at the Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference on Tuesday. Oil markets are increasingly worried over potential supply constraints as the economic turmoil in Venezuela deepens. Production in Venezuela has been falling and the economic difficulties have affected further investments in the sector. As the economic situation deteriorates, production might continue to fall from its maximum potential, thus limiting the availability in the market. Venezuela, an OPEC nation and one of the biggest oil producers in the world, has conducted debt renegotiations with foreign investors since Monday.