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Say it ain't so Saudi Arabia!!!!!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Say it ain't so Saudi Arabia!!!!!

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 30 Dec 2014, 02:12:39

Iceland's collapse was very much related to US subprime.
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Re: Say it ain't so Saudi Arabia!!!!!

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 30 Dec 2014, 14:46:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')The very poor people who bought the homes were the same to be impacted by skyrocketing gasoline prices. They left their homes.


No. For the thousandth time, they signed adjustable rate mortgages! Otherwise known as "liar loans" with "teaser rates". When their rates skyrocketed, they didn't have the take-home pay to keep up, so they lost their homes to foreclosure. This created the train-wreck upstream with the bad investments based on these mortgages.

It just so happened that their ARMs started adjusting around the time we had $4 gas. But when you actually look at how much people's take-home pay was impacted, their mortage payments far outweighed the added gas prices. So oil was a factor, but a decidedly lesser-one.

Take away the high gas prices and the foreclosure tsunami STILL kicks in. So you can't really blame the recession on peak-oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')There is no peak-oil movement.


BS. We didn't have high profile programming like Earth 2100, Incredible Journey of Oil, etc... unless there was an upswing of concern among the general public about oil supply. This is also why Obama said we can't drill our way out (turns out he was a little overly pessimistic). All that concern has gone away (at least temporarily) due to fracking. People hit the snooze bar.

The reason I'm getting upset is that you have a blind-spot a mile wide and no amount of pointing you at it seems to change things.
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Re: Say it ain't so Saudi Arabia!!!!!

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 30 Dec 2014, 15:46:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'W')hat about this off the wall idea...Saudi Arabia has calculated that world oil peak is right now, and by refusing to cut production they are protecting themselves from the international backlash? When depletion exceeds new production they will be able to pass the buck saying truthfully that they are still pumping oil as fast as they can.

Meanwhile the tight shale industry in North America collapses and then gets blamed for not supplying the oil the world needs at the start of the down slope. Internationally it is all America's fault, not OPEC.


Now that is the Conspiracy theory to beat all Conspiracy theories...or is it? It doesn't actually require a conspiracy, just that Saudi Aramaco has predicted the near term course of events in the oil business and acted preemptively to limit the global consequences for Saudi Arabia from the peaking of world oil production.

Not saying I buy into the idea they are both smart enough to predict the future and wise enough to act preemptively, but it is an intriguing scenario.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Say it ain't so Saudi Arabia!!!!!

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 30 Dec 2014, 16:10:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Yes, the very poor people who took out those bad loans couldn't afford $4.00 gasoline


No. They couldn't afford their mortgages. The gas prices just made it worse. It was a crisis created by the bubble of giving mortgages to the wrong people and then selling mortgage-backed securities to the banking industry under false pretenses that these people would not default. There is reams of supporting evidence for all this, and yet every time you talk about the recession you mention peak-oil and not an iota about this or the oil-speculation. Your argument lacks any and all credibility as a sin of these omissions.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')We are too many people running out of too little earth. You have an argument with that?


No, but that's not "peak oil" either. That's just the broader limits-to-growth stump-speech. I'm down for that, sure. It doesn't mean I take that and proclaim "peak oil caused the credit crisis!" You're still fighting a lost battle if you think that narrative moves the needle at all on people taking peak-oil seriously.

It doesn't take much work to say "Oh, look, poor people! That's peak oil!" Or "hey look, there's a war in the middle-east. It's a resource war!" It's just a very superficial, very dogmatic and overly-simplistic way of trying to describe how the world works. The world is a complex system and NOT every moving gear is a function of how much conventional oil is underground.
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Re: Say it ain't so Saudi Arabia!!!!!

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 30 Dec 2014, 23:26:17

Some interesting points are raised here:

"Where we are headed: Peak oil and the financial crisis"

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5230

That is, higher oil prices in 2006 affecting financial markets, leading to a crash and lower prices.
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Re: Say it ain't so Saudi Arabia!!!!!

Unread postby ennui2 » Wed 31 Dec 2014, 00:23:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'E')nnui2 if you want to continue believing the the Great World Recession was the fault of bad mortgages in the Inland Empire . . . have at it. You are not a pleasant or useful member of this forum, and I rarely find you contributions to be original, inventive, certainly not funny. Consider yourself ignored.


Hold up a mirror and you'll see your rhetoric hasn't evolved since 2008. I could dredge up feuds we used to have over the credit crisis from years ago and it would be hardly any different from how it is now, only this time around the economy is actually pulling out of its tailspin which it wasn't supposed to be able to do because of--peak oil. This all makes your clinging to your narrative that much less credible.

How many active posters are there on this site anymore? Half a dozen? Seems kind of radical to ignore someone when there's barely any posts left to read.
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Re: Say it ain't so Saudi Arabia!!!!!

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 31 Dec 2014, 07:31:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'E')nnui2 if you want to continue believing the the Great World Recession was the fault of bad mortgages in the Inland Empire . . . have at it. You are not a pleasant or useful member of this forum, and I rarely find you contributions to be original, inventive, certainly not funny. Consider yourself ignored.


Hold up a mirror and you'll see your rhetoric hasn't evolved since 2008. I could dredge up feuds we used to have over the credit crisis from years ago and it would be hardly any different from how it is now, only this time around the economy is actually pulling out of its tailspin which it wasn't supposed to be able to do because of--peak oil. This all makes your clinging to your narrative that much less credible.

How many active posters are there on this site anymore? Half a dozen? Seems kind of radical to ignore someone when there's barely any posts left to read.


I always assumed that "recovery" essentially involved creating more credit in order to minimize fallout caused by too much credit. Meanwhile, conventional production peaked, and shale oil was used only because of credit availability and that oil prices were high enough.
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