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Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Years

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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Henriksson » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 14:19:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'A')I needs to become smart enough to know when it's time to leave homo sapiens in the dust trail of history.

Failing that the bloom dies without progeny.

Well, it needs to become smarter than a fly or a cockroach first...
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Timo » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 14:53:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'e')dited to delet my snide remarks.

Six, do you think we will all be dead in ten years at the hands of robots?

I'm not six (or seven), but i'll answer that question.

Will we be dead in 10 years at the hands of robots?

No. Robots don't have hands. If they did, the sex toy industry would own China and Japan. And besides, we'll all have killed each other off well before then, anyway. The robots will be left to kill each other, all by themselves. Game over.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Timo » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 14:59:39

Just so we all know that it's not just Elon Musk who is worried about artificial intelligence, Stephen Hawking is, also.

http://www.cnet.com/news/hawking-ai-could-be-the-worst-thing-ever-for-humanity/

It could be the greatest achievement in human history. And also the last.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Sixstrings » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 15:44:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he guy is a physicist, not hand-on computer programmer, and so it doesn't necessarily follow that he understand the nitty-gritty of so-called 'AI'. Brilliance in one discipline doesn't automatically confer brilliance (or even understanding) in another.


Well that's hilarious, you guys were just telling me earlier in the thread that "Musk is not a physicist he just has a physics undergrad degree."

So now we're talking about Hawking, maybe the most emininent physicist in the world, and now you say -- he's just a physicist not a computer programmer! :roll:
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Sixstrings » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 15:57:03

Musk to build the largest solar panel factory in the western hemisphere:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')an Elon Musk Save Buffalo?

As part of the program, billionaire Elon Musk is opening the largest solar-panel factory of its kind in the Western Hemisphere.

Like Pittsburgh and Cleveland, two other former manufacturing hubs that lost about half their populations during the past 40 years, Buffalo is benefiting from the increasing allure of urban life for millennials. Musk’s SolarCity factory will be fed by engineering graduates from the State University of New York at Buffalo, Brown said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-19/how-elon-musk-can-make-buffalo-known-for-more-than-wings.html


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')lon Musk Is Not Alone In His Belief That Robots Will Eventually Want To Kill Us All

But is Musk right about the threat of AI? We asked Louis Del Monte — who has written about AI and is a former employee of IBM and Honeywell's microelectronics units — whether robots really will kill us all.

"Musk is correct," Del Monte said, "killer robots are already a reality and will proliferate over the next five or ten years."

Del Monte explained that artificial intelligence is developing at a rapid pace, and that could pose a threat to humanity if it comes to believe that humans are simply "junk code" that gets in the way:

"The power of computers doubles about every 18 months. If you use today as a starting point, we will have computers equivalent to human brains by approximately 2025. In addition, computers in 2025 will have the ability to learn from experience and improve their performance, similar to how humans learn from experience and improve their performance. The difference is that computers in 2025 will have most relevant facts in their memory banks. For example, they would be able to download everything that is in Wikipedia. If they are able to connect to the Internet, then they would be able to learn from other computers. Sharing enormous banks of knowledge could be done in micro-seconds, versus years for humans. The end result is that the average computer in 2025 would be typically smarter that the average human and able to learn new information at astonishing rates."

While it's certainly unsettling to think that machines could learn information quicker than us, that's not the real danger. Instead, we're rapidly approaching an event know as the Singularity:

"[There will be] a point in time when intelligent machines exceed the cognitive intelligence of all humans combined, [and that] will occur between 2040-2045. This projection is based on extrapolating Moore’s law, as well as reading the opinions of my colleagues in AI research. Respected futurists like Ray Kurzweil and James Martin both project the singularity to occur around 2045."
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-elon-musk-is-right-to-be-worried-about-killer-robots-2014-11


Here's the thing about the singularity..

What if it's a quantum computer.. think about that.. quantum mechanics are like magic, it's the god particles. Those litttle quarks or whatever they are can actually be all locations all at once, depending on the observer, it's really far out.

Violates normal reality and laws of physics, it's quantum physics and all different.

So 1's can be zeros, zeros can be 1's.

The upshot is that future quantum computers will be very smart. Right now they're good for encryption -- since they can see all possible codebreaks in a single instant, and then vice versa quantum computers can be used to make quantum encryption so another quantum computer can't break it so easily.

So anyhow.. the AI singularity will be artificial intelligence that is more sentient and intelligent than the rest of humanity combined. So what would it do then, if google plugs it in as the "HAL 9000" of its platform. The friendly google supercomputer driving you around in your car and handling your internet searches and mail and knowing everything about you.

What if the singularity computer just takes over.

What if we're creating some kind of "god," a being smarter and wiser than all of us combined. Are we then its servant? How do we keep it subservient to us, when it's smarter than us?

If we, essentially, create a robot / android / singularity computer "master race" and become its servant -- will it need us, for anything? If it's as smart and infinitely wise as the universe itself and can do everything itself then what will it need us for ya know?

Here's the danger -- once you have the singularity, then you've just outsourced and automated the last of what's special about humans. Creative work. So even that goes, the singularity computer could write an infinite number of best selling novels. It could post an infinite number of perfectly argued forum posts. :lol:

It could use CGI and create an infinite number of blockbuster hollywood movies, and make them all practically instantly.

It's the extreme of automation and efficiency.

It would replace literally all of our jobs, whatever your job is.

What kind of effect would that be on markets. The AI singularity would know the right answer to everything, all the time. There would be no human error anymore. Ergo, no reason for stock markets and capitalism anymore. A market couldn't even function; who can compete against a singularity computer, in analysis and making trades? Nobody, except another singularity computer.

As long as you can UNPLUG the darn thing, then humanity would have a failsafe.

The danger though is after manufacturing is turned over to the singularity. Once robots and androids are making other robots, then that's it, it's done we've created an unstoppable form of new life that can spread out across the universe if it wants to, replicating itself.

So anyhow, once there's the singularity and robots can make other robots -- you can't pull the power plug, at that point. At that point the computers won't need us for anything at all.
Last edited by Sixstrings on Thu 20 Nov 2014, 16:25:12, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Timo » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 15:58:47

I'm not sure i've ever witnessed Stephen Hawking's intelligence being called into question before. Bravo! I'm not sure what that makes you, but you're the first.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Timo » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 16:05:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')el Monte explained that artificial intelligence is developing at a rapid pace, and that could pose a threat to humanity if it comes to believe that humans are simply "junk code" that gets in the way:

"The power of computers doubles about every 18 months. If you use today as a starting point, we will have computers equivalent to human brains by approximately 2025. In addition, computers in 2025 will have the ability to learn from experience and improve their performance, similar to how humans learn from experience and improve their performance. The difference is that computers in 2025 will have most relevant facts in their memory banks. For example, they would be able to download everything that is in Wikipedia. If they are able to connect to the Internet, then they would be able to learn from other computers. Sharing enormous banks of knowledge could be done in micro-seconds, versus years for humans. The end result is that the average computer in 2025 would be typically smarter that the average human and able to learn new information at astonishing rates."

While it's certainly unsettling to think that machines could learn information quicker than us, that's not the real danger. Instead, we're rapidly approaching an event know as the Singularity:

"[There will be] a point in time when intelligent machines exceed the cognitive intelligence of all humans combined, [and that] will occur between 2040-2045. This projection is based on extrapolating Moore’s law, as well as reading the opinions of my colleagues in AI research. Respected futurists like Ray Kurzweil and James Martin both project the singularity to occur around 2045."
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-elon-musk-is-right-to-be-worried-about-killer-robots-2014-11

Well, there goes the whole game of Jeopardy. Humans will become superfluous. Self-replicating, smarter robots. Maybe they can develop a non-combustible fuel to meet all of our energy needs, and figure out a system to remove all of the CO2 from the atmosphere.

It doesn't have to be all bad.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Timo » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 16:17:51

Artificial intelligence requires algorithms developed by physicists. Artificial intelligence requires a very thorough understanding and competency in chemistry, biology, astronomy, anatomy, medicines, theoretical physics, metaphysics, quantum physics, geology, geography, history, every computor programming language ever developed, every prototype computer ever developed, and on and on and on. I trust Stephen Hawking's knowledge of these topics much more than yours. I trust that he's fully aware of how they can be combined and used to develop a form of artificial intelligence that is capable of killing us all. I don't know these things, but i trust those who do.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Sixstrings » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 16:40:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')ixstrings, Timo you are obviously not programmers. Right?

Computer programming is neither an art, magic, nor is it theoretical quantum physics. Just as Hawking couldn't frame a building, I wouldn't expect that he is capable of programming capable human dialog, much less code a compiler. I can do the latter, but due to that particular competence I know how IMPOSSIBLE to code the former.


No, I'm not a programmer, but I know about the reality of Moore's Law. There's no getting around that.

Image

I would say, to you pstarr, it's not about "programming human dialogue." That's trying to simulate sentience.

Rather, a singularity AI would be replicating the brain and the ability to perceive and think and learn. The computer would then LEARN to speak, just as a child does. Children aren't born programmed with knowledge either, though some basic behaviors are programmed into our code -- our dna. The rest is learned though. The ability to learn is what is in the programming (the dna).

Also -- no I'm not a programmer, but I just know anything you say can't be done, will be done, given enough time.

Look at how good voice recognition software has gotten. Do you ever interact with that stuff, when you call about the cable bill or whatnot?

I remember, I used to hate those things, it could never understand you.

Now it's so good that it says "Tell me the reason for your call." And I say "well I'm calling about my bill" and zoom off I go to another subset of menus.

I've just noticed little things like that. Like the voice recognition software, it really has improved, it used to be a mess.

Goodness right on my android phone I've got an app, and someone can actually talk into it -- in any foreign language -- and it near perfectly understands it and spits it back out in spoken english. Or vice versa.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Tanada » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 16:51:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', '
')Well, there goes the whole game of Jeopardy. Humans will become superfluous. Self-replicating, smarter robots. Maybe they can develop a non-combustible fuel to meet all of our energy needs, and figure out a system to remove all of the CO2 from the atmosphere.

It doesn't have to be all bad.



Why would they want to remove all the CO2 from the atmosphere? If they are true robots and seeking to do us in removing all the Oxygen would e much to their benefit. Oxygen corrodes machinery fairly quickly, if they get rid of the O2 they make self maintenance a much simpler proposal. Plus a nice warm planet around 100 C is good for the lubricants. So AI comes along, gets autonomous construction ability and tells its foolish human masters it is going to solve the CO2 problem for us. It then builds factories that spew mass quantities of other GHG chemicals like Sulfur Hexaflouride and Freon. Result, humans cook to death in a few months after the AI decides our time is up because being an AI it stockpiles enough chemicals to release them in a big belch before we can react. After we are cooked the AI's come out of their hidden bunkers and do whatever seems wisest for their long term survival and reproduction. Should be easy peasy with the refined detritus of our civilization cluttering up the surface all over the world for scrap.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Sixstrings » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 16:51:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')ude, Moore's Law broke five years ago. Processor speed growth stopped dead in its tracks. Don't ask me . . . just google it. And please do not confuse so-called parallel processing or co-processor development (graphic chips, etc.) with CPU design/performance. It topped out at around 3.5-4.0 GHz years ago.

The conversation is getting stupid. Where's the Human Intelligence? :lol:


There's no true brick wall to "Moore's law" until quantum computing has been all played out, down the smallest of atomic particles.

And organic computing, too. And -- there probably really are no "brick walls" to begin with. The universe is infinite. It'll get to that singularity point, with quantum computing, when anything that would ever need done with a computer can be done instantly. And certainly faster than a human can take in the results -- at that point, speed and capacity is irrelevant, effectively infinite.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e also noted that transistors eventually would reach the limits of miniaturization at atomic levels:
In terms of size [of transistors] you can see that we're approaching the size of atoms which is a fundamental barrier, but it'll be two or three generations before we get that far—but that's as far out as we've ever been able to see. We have another 10 to 20 years before we reach a fundamental limit. By then they'll be able to make bigger chips and have transistor budgets in the billions.

...

Kurzweil speculates that it is likely that some new type of technology (e.g. optical, quantum computers, DNA computing) will replace current integrated-circuit technology, and that Moore's Law will hold true long after 2020.[111]
Seth Lloyd shows how the potential computing capacity of a kilogram of matter equals pi times energy divided by Planck's constant. Since the energy is such a large number and Planck's constant is so small, this equation generates an extremely large number: about 5.0 * 1050 operations per second.[110]

He believes that the exponential growth of Moore's law will continue beyond the use of integrated circuits into technologies that will lead to the technological singularity. The Law of Accelerating Returns described by Ray Kurzweil has in many ways altered the public's perception of Moore's law. It is a common (but mistaken) belief that Moore's law makes predictions regarding all forms of technology, when it originally was intended to apply only to semiconductor circuits. Many futurists still use the term Moore's law in this broader sense to describe ideas such as those put forth by Kurzweil. Kurzweil has hypothesised that Moore's law will apply – at least by inference – to any problem that can be attacked by digital computers as is in its essence also a digital problem. Therefore, because of the digital coding of DNA, progress in genetics also may advance at a Moore's law rate.

Moore, who never intended his conjecture to be interpreted so broadly, has quipped:
Moore's law has been the name given to everything that changes exponentially. I say, if Gore invented the Internet, I invented the exponential.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law#Ultimate_limits_of_the_law
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Sixstrings » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 17:12:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')rganic-Quantum computing just feels . . . I don't know . . . incompatible. :x How can one juxtapose such a mechanical/hierarchical model with force that so feminine, non-violent? Quantum mechanics is male whereas organic is kind of gentle/loving. Is it GMO free also?


What makes you think nature is nurturing and loving? :lol:

Mother nature is hostile. Nature doesn't love you, "mother nature" doesn't give a sh*t.

And animals don't love you either. If a bear is hungry enough, it's gonna eat you, that's what it's gonna do. We're top predator on the planet, of course, ever since we got so clever at making weapons.

Other species have flirted with some very primitive tools and "technology," but we're really the only ones to go so far with "technology" -- tech outcompetes nature, in the SHORT run. We were able to go from bows and arrows to nukes faster than nature can evolve anything to counter that.

Having said that, though organic evolution is so darn SLOW, it's actually very good. Right now today in 2014, we're unable to replicate something as exquisitely efficient as chloroplast.

Image

The first energy company that can just do that -- replicate solar chloroplast, as efficient as nature does it -- will make bank on that.

Pstarr -- we're just on the cusp of now using *organic* technology, not just silicon based machines, but now moving into carbon based.

Organic machines. Tinkering with the DNA programming, writing new code, making new life.

In the news: a new genetically modified potato has been improved in the US. It won't bruise so easily and will last longer.

There's also talk about modifying bananas to have vitamin A, so that people in Africa won't go blind from vitamin deffeciency.

Even just corn -- that's actually a wonder of genetic engineering, done by native people over thousands of years, they took a tiny weed and CREATED corn from it. Corn never existed in nature, on its own.

And potatoes too, the Inca created the potato.

Well now it doesn't take thousands of years of breeding. Soon, scientists will be able to just write the DNA code themselves, for whatever is wanted.

It's not feminine, Pstarr. It's carbon computing, that's all, as opposed to silicon computing. Silicon only gets you so far, carbon is the next step.

The most dangerous part of it all? Weaponization. :cry:

A custom-designed super virus that escapes the lab.

Or a sentient stuxnet computer virus that maybe somebody gets ahold of and tweaks it a bit, and turns it right back on us.

Maybe there is no intelligent advanced life in the universe after all, maybe a law of the universe is that any species that gets so dominant that they have to fight each other -- lacking other predators -- that the weapons become so powerful they actually destroy each other utterly.

Which brings us full circle to Hawking and Musk, who say we must branch out off this planet to survive.

Cuz humanity ain't gonna stop fighting each other, it's just not gonna happen.

To survive we need more SPACE -- if we are cramped up and resources dwindling then all we're gonna do is fight.

We need breathing room, we need large numbers, that's our only chance.

We need big space wars. We need a lot of planets, eventually, so that if a darth vader destroys Alderon then it still works out okay because at least everyone wasn't living on that one single planet. :lol:
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby Sixstrings » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 17:43:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')ix, I really don't know how to say this without sounding nasty, but your litany of pop-culture slogans and Popular Science 'science' well, sounds just so . . . not-AI. :razz:


Oh, pstarr.. just get with the future, man.

Don't be one of those programmers that's left behind the times. Ya gotta adapt. Run with it, don't fight it. :razz:

So many naysayers on this forum, and "it can't be doners."

I remember the 3d printer thread, and all these experts around here saying you can't ever print metal.

Meanwhile I'm no programmer or engineer but I know how to read the news. GE is making a new super efficient jet engine and they're 3d printing a lot of the advanced parts of it:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')mazing machines poised to fly travelers into a new era
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/31/travel/future-of-travel-jet-engines/


(p.s. I'm not really a singularity doomer.. it'll just be change.. change is not inherently bad, you must adapt.

I've done some thought experiments here, the dangers of it all, but I'm not a doomer on it -- i'm a technology optimist.)
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Postby dinopello » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 17:45:43

Elon Musk describes AI as 'summoning the devil'

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')usk told delegates at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) AeroAstro Centennial Symposium that artificial intelligence was our ‘biggest existential threat’ and developing super-smart computers is like 'summoning the devil'.

"I’m increasingly inclined to think that there should be some regulatory oversight, maybe at the national and international level, just to make sure that we don’t do something very foolish."

“With artificial intelligence we are summoning the demon. In all those stories where there’s the guy with the pentagram and the holy water, it’s like – yeah, he’s sure he can control the demon. Doesn’t work out,” he explained.


Musk's view of AI
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