[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'I') think unlikely, but as a precaution - keep knives out of the reach of your Roomba...or Doomba as they are known.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', 'H')e advertises that the best way forward is most often the simplest. In this case, it functions better, and costs thousands less than any competitor can produce. It's existing technology. He didn't reinvent the LI battery. He reorganized the LI battery to suit his intended purpose. This is a huge part of what makes him so successful.

[Sixstrings]

Another example: Solar City.

He looked at the solar industry, and determined there's no possible way to compete with the Chinese on cost to make those PV cells. (or whatever you call them, I'm no expert)

Whereas all these others were trying to do that, like Solyndra. And Solyndra went bankrupt and the government lost its money on it (we, the taxpayers) because they didn't have the vision that Musk did. Something that sounds so obvious and reasonable, but why didn't Solyndra ever see it at the time? That of course not, of course you can't compete with Chinese on cost on something like that. It would be like trying to make cheap tshirts in the USA and outcompete Honduran or Vietnamese factories just on cost alone. You can't. It's impossible. You can make a better quality tshirt, or a more fashionable one, but you cannot make one here that's cheaper.

So what Musk did was design a business model for the distribution of solar power. And they buy the PV cells from China, since that is like a raw good and if you can't compete on that then don't, make money where money is to be made. That's smart business. It should be obvious, but it's not, apparently, and only he sees it. Time after time.

Now look a Orbital Sciences and their 40 year Russian rocket engines and Ukrainian stages.

At the time, Musk said that was unbelievably idiotic. He couldn't even believe they were doing it, literally using a 40 year old engine. It was obvious to Musk that was stupid -- but it wasn't obvious to everyone else, not Orbital, not our government, nobody.

Now in hindsight, after it blew up, NOW everyone agrees with Musk. And his company is probably getting Orbital's contracts now. So see it's one thing after another like that.

And those batteries.

He turned out right on that too. Boeing dreamliner batteries were having the "cascade fire explosion" problem (not something you want at 30,000 feet). But Musk's batteries were designed to prevent that. He actually called Boeing and offered to help them out, no charge or anything just assistance because he knew what their problem was -- and they told him no.

And about the tesla -- if memory serves, didn't these cars get the highest possible crash test ratings from the NSTSB? Are they not the safest cars made by an American company?

[Newfie]

edited to delet my snide remarks.

Six, do you think we will all be dead in ten years at the hands of robots?

[Quinny]

Is laughing my flipping bottom off permitted??

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I')s laughing my flipping bottom off permitted??

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'e')dited to delet my snide remarks.

Six, do you think we will all be dead in ten years at the hands of robots?

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'e')dited to delet my snide remarks.

Six, do you think we will all be dead in ten years at the hands of robots?

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I')s laughing my flipping bottom off permitted??

[Sixstrings]

Okay I read the article.

So Musk is a doomer. And you guys still don't like him?!?!

What's wrong with you people, he's one of us! He's a doomer! Yeah, it's AI singularity doom but you know how it is a doomer is a doomer and he's one of us.

The full article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he billionaire entrepreneur has made a habit of making apocalyptic comments about killer robots in recent interviews.

During a talk at a recent Vanity Fair conference, Musk warned the audience about killer robots. He suggested that advanced artificial intelligence could cause robots to delete humans like spam:

If its [function] is just something like getting rid of e-mail spam and it determines the best way of getting rid of spam is getting rid of humans ...

The interviewer went on to ask Musk whether humanity could use his SpaceX ships to escape killer robots if they took over Earth, but things don't look promising.

No — more likely than not that if there’s some ... apocalypse scenario, it may follow people from Earth.

Here's Musk's deleted comment from Edge.org:

The pace of progress in artificial intelligence (I'm not referring to narrow AI) is incredibly fast. Unless you have direct exposure to groups like Deepmind, you have no idea how fast-it is growing at a pace close to exponential. The risk of something seriously dangerous happening is in the five year timeframe. 10 years at most. This is not a case of crying wolf about something I don't understand.

I am not alone in thinking we should be worried. The leading AI companies have taken great steps to ensure safety. The recognize the danger, but believe that they can shape and control the digital superintelligences and prevent bad ones from escaping into the Internet. That remains to be seen...
http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-killer-robots-will-be-here-within-five-years-2014-11

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'I')'m not joking, it could happen. Sentient war-robots may become double agents. They may start to have their own opinions about things.

[Sixstrings]

And think about this: Elon Musk is one of the few that actually know what Google is working on.

Aren't you guys aware of all that?

The robotics companies they bought, the robots they're building? And Google just overall developing into a big brother AI? Google will be the FIRST to implement sentient AI, across the platform in search and your gmail and your android phone and your google maps and your google car.

You'll have a friendly AI avatar personal assistant. If you want it to be a she, she'll be a she.. she'll drive your car, take your phone calls, handle your schedule, wake you up in the morning, cook your food and care for you when you are sick and old.

Or, the sentient robot may band together with the other robots and turn on us. How many times has this been predicted, in science fiction, think about it.

Personally though -- I don't see the doom in it if it is TRULY sentient AI. Why assume sentience is evil. But on the other hand -- I hate to admit it, but look at what we know about all life. The goal for all life is to out-compete and dominate all other life, if it can.

I guess I choose to believe the happy Star Trek future and a benevolent AI; I think there's more danger with just your local law enforcement using walking cop combat robots. But they aren't fully sentient, they don't have emotion or guilt or a conscience. They'd be a "dumb" sentient robot. Just smart enough to tell you to get out of the car, but maybe not smart enough to not shoot the car up unnecessarily you know?

Sooooooo many slippery slopes and dangers to ALL of this, Musk is right in general.

Think about the ongoing age of drones we have. And just how that removes humanity from the reality of how horrible war is.. does a drone give a sh*t about human casualities? No. Fleets of drones will do what they are told to do, and efficiently.

Soooooo many scary things about it, it's true.

Even benevolent AI -- don't you guys realize it will put YOU out of work? Whatever your job is, a sentient robot or software will be able to do it better than you can, and cheaper, and will never need a vacation or a coffee break or any darn healthcare or any pay.

So what will happen, when ALL of our jobs are suddenly replaced by AI????

Capitalism breaks down. The whole model breaks down. And the only solution is some kind of new communism. That's the future, believe it or not, if you live long enough you'll see it though, or our children will or definitely their children.

P.S. Musk also works with google, spacex is going to launch their 700 satellites for free global internet. Musk knows what he's talking about. He's in the loop on all these things.

I think the FEAR part of all this though, and the creeped out factor, won't really hit me until the day comes when I really do see a walking talking kind-of-sort-of-thinking police robot.

It's going to be an adjustment, for all of us. Just the creepy factor of it. We're going to have to adjust, to life with the robots. I don't THINK it will be bad.. I saw a cute movie about an elderly guy whose kids got him a robot to take care of him. And they became friends. Hopefully THOSE are the kind of robots we get.

I don't know what the answer is.

Could EVIL be programmed into robotic sentience?

[dinopello]

Six, you aren't hearing Musk. Robots aren't going to work for us with their sentient AI. Work is a waste of energy. They don't need to do plumbing or cooking or driving, once they eliminate us they will do whatever superintelligence wants to do, we can't possibly understand what that is. They will laugh at google - if they have humor we have no idea. Musk knows though - he works with these things. He knows but we can't possibly understand. But he knows.

[Sixstrings]

You guys got me on a roll, I didn't even know Musk was into AI singularity doom.

BUT.. we've already hashed all this out on this forum before, Musk isn't the first on this, what's that one guy's name -- Ray something. He wrote some books.

And then there is the mountain of science fiction thinkers that came before; again, Isaac Asimov and the laws of robotics:



You know what the sad thing is?

The reality is that the first AI sentient software will be employed by a hedge fund to totally game the markets and take all the money in the world and it'll crash our whole economy.

And look at the super advanced computers, cutting edge tech, in Hong Kong -- just for making bitcoins.

We're also at the cusp of the quantum computing age, you combine that with sentience and good grief that's creating God himself. In quantum computing, all answers and possibilities can be seen all at once, simultaneously.

Who knows where all this is headed.

But I remain positive about it. Because:

It's like raising kids, or dogs. They reflect us. If you raise a troubled kid, then you probably have some fault somewhere along the line. Same with a dog. I don't have kids but I raised my dog from a puppy, and she's the sweetest dog there is. They say dogs reflect their owners. So I'm pleased with that. I have rarely swatted her -- just a couple times when she was after a possum and it was dangerous for her.

And she has never bitten me -- much less anyone else -- she has come *close* to biting me a couple times, again, me stopping her from going after a coon or possum. (she's a hound)

So maybe that's how it will be.

The robots will reflect us. Good, and bad. There can be mean nasty dogs, and there can be good dogs, it depends on the owner.

The robots will reflect us, in our entirety, good and bad. Musk may have a point about the dangers of a very simplistic kind of artificial intelligence -- that could be a nightmare cold hearted machine intelligence that's alien to us and may well wipe us out like spam.

But if we can replicate MAMALIAN sentience -- like a human, or a pack animal dog with its own emotions and loyalty and capacity for good or evil depending on what WE are -- then it'll be okay.

We're mammals, we're pack animals ourselves; when this robot AI comes, what we'd want to do is make sure we are just creating something in our image and then we'll be ok.

Robots could be man's best friend, and we'll co-evolve together to mutual benefit, just as we do with dogs and the other domesticated species we have.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t reminds me of Must. The USA citizen and Nasa developed space flight, it's in the public domain, but somehow Must just made it his own. He wants the American citizen to pay him for technology we developed 50 years ago. Must must think we're stupid.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'S')ix, you aren't hearing Musk. Robots aren't going to work for us with their sentient AI. Work is a waste of energy. They don't need to do plumbing or cooking or driving, once they eliminate us they will do whatever superintelligence wants to do, we can't possibly understand what that is. They will laugh at google - if they have humor we have no idea. Musk knows though - he works with these things. He knows but we can't possibly understand. But he knows.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')lon Musk worries Skynet is only five years off

In his original comment, as preserved on Reddit, Musk cited his involvement as an early investor in the British artificial intelligence company DeepMind, now a part of Google, for evidence.

"The pace of progress in artificial intelligence (I'm not referring to narrow AI) is incredibly fast," Musk wrote. "Unless you have direct exposure to groups like DeepMind, you have no idea how fast-it is growing at a pace close to exponential."

Musk adds that leading AI companies "recognize the danger" and are working to control "bad" superintelligences "from escaping into the Internet."

It's also worth considering, as Leonid Bershidsky does here, that Musk's comments about AI this year could be about hyping the industry as much as anything else.
http://www.cnet.com/news/elon-musk-worries-skynet-is-only-five-years-off/

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'I')'m not joking, it could happen. Sentient war-robots may become double agents. They may start to have their own opinions about things.

[MD]

AI needs to become smart enough to know when it's time to leave homo sapiens in the dust trail of history.

Failing that the bloom dies without progeny.