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Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Years

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Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Years

Unread postby dinopello » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 09:59:42

Musk issues warning to humanity

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')usk posted a comment on the futurology site Edge.org, warning readers that developments in AI could bring about robots that may autonomously decide that it is sensible to start killing humans.

"The risk of something seriously dangerous happening is in the five year timeframe," Musk wrote.

Musk defended his views, writing, "This is not a case of crying wolf about something I don't understand."


There's lots of commentary out there on his comment. In a way it is trivial - Yes I can design an AI system that decides humanity has to go. And, yes t is much easier to engineer things that destroy things rather than build things. There are "smart" munitions that try and discriminate between tanks and schoolbusand there are research into battlefield robots that hopefully know friend from foe - and like any system these are not correct 100% of the time. There is danger in these and every system of war but his attitude is a bit hysterical IMO.

He's made other comments on this (is there already a thread ? :oops:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')uring a talk at a recent Vanity Fair conference, Musk warned the audience about killer robots. He suggested that advanced artificial intelligence could cause robots to delete humans like spam:

If its [function] is just something like getting rid of e-mail spam and it determines the best way of getting rid of spam is getting rid of humans ...

The interviewer went on to ask Musk whether humanity could use his SpaceX ships to escape killer robots if they took over Earth, but things don't look promising.

No — more likely than not that if there’s some ... apocalypse scenario, it may follow people from Earth.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 13:49:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'G')oogle Driverless can't even identify a stop sign and this clown is talking about killer robots. Not surprising, the man has a bachelor's degree in economics, the Virtual Science. LOL

Bill Gates investigating potential of cold fusion technology
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')icrosoft co-founder Bill Gates caused quite a stir during a recent visit to Italy as he received a briefing from Italy’s leading energy and technology agency on its recent discoveries with regard to cold fusion energy.
...
However, after some sleuthing from E-Cat World, the site was able to deduce that from an Italian translation, Gates had “first heard a presentation of the activities of ENEA – National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development – and then focused on cold fusion, frontier research in the field of nuclear fusion”.
...
From the photos posted by the ENEA, Gates was briefed by Vittorio Violante, lead co-ordinator on Italy’s LENR research, who only last year briefed the European Union on the latest advancements in the technology and whether it can be a potential clean and renewable energy source in the future.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Timo » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 14:17:24

I've learned never to underestimate anything Musk says. His entire world is within what, for the rest of us, is science fiction. His mission in life is to change the world, and he is succeeding in doing that in no small way. The five-year timeframe for artificial intelligence may, or may not, have any accuracy at all. However, this guy lives in a different world, and he is very, very good at what he does. He knows what he is talking about. His warnings about AI being a threat to humanity within 5 to 10 years may not pan out. I hope not, but it certainly did grab my attention, and now its got me thinking. Even if that was his intention, it worked. I certainly believe there is a technological threshold that humanity needs to identify and not cross.

For fuck's sake, even actual, non-artificial intelligence is killing us right now. We don't need any killer robots. We have Exxon, and BP, and Shell, and every other ICE we've ever made that will kill us all, if we let them. There are certain thresholds we should simply not cross. Humanity made a choice when we created the industrial age, with no idea of the potential consequences. Well, here we are, and we've created a dying planet. Killer robots might actually save the Earth.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 15:44:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', ' ')Killer robots might actually save the Earth.


I hope these robots know the difference between a Mountain Gorilla and a human.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
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website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 17:18:18

Butt,, but, but...he promises us HOPE and CHANGE!

:-D

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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Henriksson » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 17:58:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he pace of progress in artificial intelligence (I'm not referring to narrow AI) is incredibly fast.

BZZT

Strong AI is currently extremely primitive. In fact, it's difficult quantifying any progress in the field at all due to just how limited the knowledge about it is. I suppose it's common for AI enthusiasts to be wildly optimistic about Strong AI, but one would think they could have learnt from history.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 18:20:06

What's with the Elon Musk hate.

He makes good cars. I've seen documentaries about it, the guy has designers and engineers but he goes in at every step of the way personally micro manages every last detail of design.

Nothing gets past him. How do you not respect that attention to detail, and taking personal responsibility, and pride in craftsmanship?

Do you guys seriously like bean counters better? A CEO that's just in the back office plotting some scheme with the company's stock, or how to squeeze out another bean or two firing everyone and offshoring to China?

Those the kind of ceo's you like, better?

I think Musk is a great American, we need more like him.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 18:48:05

A marketing guy micro managing engineers.

Right, what could go wrong? :-D

Look, it's not about hating Musk. But he has some screwball ideas. That whole Vacume tube transport thing. sheesh.

From my point of view there is a group who adore or worship him.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 20:35:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'A') marketing guy micro managing engineers.

Right, what could go wrong? :-D


Uhm.. well.. look at old Steve Jobs. He left Apple with $200 billion cash on hand. And Apple stock is worth more than the entire Russian stock market, combined.

But actually Musk isn't a marketing guy, he's a physicist. And techie. He's got a combined skillset, there, design and engineering and hard science.

Guys, look -- the man designed a better battery than the Boeing dreamliner for goodness sake. Boeing's batteries were exploding, Musk made his batteries with chambers that allow the heat the dissipate.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ook, it's not about hating Musk. But he has some screwball ideas. That whole Vacume tube transport thing. sheesh.

From my point of view there is a group who adore or worship him.


There's nothing scientifically unsound about the hyperloop, or even far out, engineering wise. Nobody's built one yet, that's all.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 20:40:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hen and if Musk succeeds in building auto's for real Americans, (Ones they can afford to own and operate) and has real competition (other revolutionary EV builders), you can be sure one of the two will scurry off to the lowest-labor-denominator. That's the way competition works.


Tesla's business plan was to start at the high end and ramp up and work down from there. So he's got a plan for it, progressively less expensive models, but yes my guess is it's going to be a while before there's an affordable tesla "for the rest of us." :lol:

It's not easy to just go from a Delorian to a Ford Motor Company overnight and produce cars for the masses. Takes time. Factories, supply chains, and they don't have any dealerships either. They've got these company stores and I guess and you order a tesla and it gets delivered.

Look how long it takes for just something like a costco or grocery chain to expand, nationwide.

Nobody can become a Ford or Walmart overnight. This stuff takes fifteen and twenty years to ramp up to mass market.

By the way I don't even care about tesla, it's spacex that's so interesting.

Not that I can afford a rocket either, but I sure like outer space pics of new moons and new things more than I do pictures of the lifestyles of the rich and famous. :lol:
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 21:20:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'A') marketing guy micro managing engineers.

Right, what could go wrong? :-D


Uhm.. well.. look at old Steve Jobs. He left Apple with $200 billion cash on hand. And Apple stock is worth more than the entire Russian stock market, combined.

But actually Musk isn't a marketing guy, he's a physicist. And techie. He's got a combined skillset, there, design and engineering and hard science.

Guys, look -- the man designed a better battery than the Boeing dreamliner for goodness sake. Boeing's batteries were exploding, Musk made his batteries with chambers that allow the heat the dissipate.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ook, it's not about hating Musk. But he has some screwball ideas. That whole Vacume tube transport thing. sheesh.

From my point of view there is a group who adore or worship him.


There's nothing scientifically unsound about the hyperloop, or even far out, engineering wise. Nobody's built one yet, that's all.


He has a bachelors degree in physics. That does not make him a physicist.

Building large complex systems takes scores of engineers with specialized skill sets. Musk can not be micro managing all aspects of the work. If he is then there are serious structural issues within the company, it should not be reliant upon a single individual.

As to the hyperloop, vacume propulsion is amongst the oldest forms. It was abandoned long ago. Think earthquake.

Even if it were feasible there are huge regulatory issues to overcome.

I work in the transit industry and he name never comes up. The few times I have metioned it it has been met with derision and scorn. Nut case.

But no reason to argue, we will see soon enough.

Mostly what I am trying to say is that I see a few folks who seem to adore the guy. I would recommend caution on this guy.

Good luck.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 21:53:53

So here's a hoot.

My daughter just got me to do one of these online personality tests. Seems I'm the same type as Steve Jobs.

And she is the same as Musk.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 19 Nov 2014, 01:02:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'S')o here's a hoot.

My daughter just got me to do one of these online personality tests. Seems I'm the same type as Steve Jobs.

And she is the same as Musk.


:lol:

What's your type, if you don't mind sharing? I'm INFJ. I'm guessing we're mostly introverts on this forum, I did a thread about personality types one time.

(and what is musk and steve jobs types, if you know)
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 19 Nov 2014, 01:14:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'H')e has a bachelors degree in physics. That does not make him a physicist.


Well, I'm impressed anyhow. First he did paypal. Then he the EVs.. then taught himself the rocket business.

You say his battery case is no big deal, but he was right and Boeing was wrong.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')uilding large complex systems takes scores of engineers with specialized skill sets. Musk can not be micro managing all aspects of the work. If he is then there are serious structural issues within the company, it should not be reliant upon a single individual.


Of course it's not just Musk.

I saw a piece on him one time. It's like, he'll go in and sit in the car and just eyeball everything and then tell the designers / engineers what he likes and doesn't and what he thinks aobut everything. Then they go back and work on all that, then he checks on it again, all through that process.

Basically team management. Most auto ceo's are not doing that though, that's someone at a team leader level and a lot of bureaucracy in between.

Steve Jobs famously did that with Apple, too. He wasn't an engineer, but he just knew what people would like. i.e. screen should be scratch-proof, ease of use, etc.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s to the hyperloop, vacume propulsion is amongst the oldest forms. It was abandoned long ago. Think earthquake.


What about high speed rail and mag lev. Even the old TGV in France is sensitive, tracks have to be very level and laid out a certain way. Those trains go very fast. An earthquake could mess up any old fashioned rail line, or highway, theoretically.

In a hyperloop system, I'm sure they could build the thing on shock aborsbing struts like buildings have in tokyo and san francisco.

And it would be automated -- computer could stop the train ahead of time, way before the point of earthquake.

Travel isn't 100% safe in general -- there are big ugly wrecks just down the street from ya, you know.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') work in the transit industry and he name never comes up. The few times I have metioned it it has been met with derision and scorn. Nut case.


He isn't going to DO the hyperloop himself, it was just an idea he put out there.

There is nothing scientifically unsound about it.

I read something interesting once, that you could take that hyperloop idea and stick it on one of those very high mountains in South America and make a orbit launch rail of it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ostly what I am trying to say is that I see a few folks who seem to adore the guy. I would recommend caution on this guy.

Well doesn't matter to me, if spacex ever goes public though that's one stock I'm buying.

I'll be aware of all the fundamentals and info about it, of course, I wouldn't invest in it blindly. They'll have a long track record and much clearer picture about it all, by the time it ever goes public.

I wouldn't want stock in tesla, though -- I think Musk does a good job, but I also think he can't get production ramped up. And there's still the real question of whether teslas could ever break out of niche market. And, how can they ever compete with the big guys, once they just steal the same ideas. My prediction: musk will unload tesla at some point, he'll stick with spacex.

There are also some problems with solar city. I wouldn't invest in that one either, but it's a great idea.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 19 Nov 2014, 01:30:53

I just like musk, that's all -- he's so honest and blunt, and idealistic but face it this is a tycoon he has results under his belt, it's not a Delorian dreamer -- billions of dollars; paypal, tesla, spacex.

It's a breath of fresh air. Really does remind me of hank reardon in atlas shrugged.
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