[ROCKMAN]

As Donlan points out there's more then enough exported oil to meet any increase in Chinese consumption. According to the EIA about 43 million bopd are exported. China produces about 4 million bopd and consumes around 10 million bopd. So they are currently importing only about 14% of the oil in the market place. Just 10 years ago China was importing less than 5% of global oil exports. If (and granted it's a big IF) China picks up another 9% increase in the next 10 years they'll import an additional 4 million bopd. Might be less... might be more. All depends on the ability of the other oil importers to compete with China.

Again what's important for any oil importer isn't global PO but how much of the available oil exports they can acquire.

[ROCKMAN]

And about China's "obsession" with autos: I couldn't find any reliable stats but from my limited exposure the great demand for vehicles was for commerce and not commuting to a job or for pleasure. As I said, without one exception, every young Chinese lad I spoke to was emphatic about needing wheels to conduct business. And conducting business was key to getting a wife. Commuting via their own vehicle to a job working for someone else had no appeal from what I gathered from my conversations. Saving money to buy a vehicle was synonymous with saving money to start a business.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')nd about China's "obsession" with autos: I couldn't find any reliable stats but from my limited exposure the great demand for vehicles was for commerce and not commuting to a job or for pleasure. As I said, without one exception, every young Chinese lad I spoke to was emphatic about needing wheels to conduct business. And conducting business was key to getting a wife. Commuting via their own vehicle to a job working for someone else had no appeal from what I gathered from my conversations. Saving money to buy a vehicle was synonymous with saving money to start a business.

[MonteQuest]

Desu,

Here's where China has been getting their oil.




And as Europe continues toward a depression, China will suck it up.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'D')esu,

Here's where China has been getting their oil.




And as Europe continues toward a depression, China will suck it up.

[MonteQuest]

And this is interesting.



http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303802904579334411874909686

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd this is interesting.



http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303802904579334411874909686

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', ' ')China's economy is going to collapse within the next ten years due to an oil shortage, I believe. Mark my words. The global economy will collapse within the next ten years due to oil shortages.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'I')f the USA controls the oil in Iraq, how come they are letting the Chinese import oil from Iraq? Wouldn't the USA be preventing China from importing oil from a country they control?

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'I')f the USA controls the oil in Iraq, how come they are letting the Chinese import oil from Iraq? Wouldn't the USA be preventing China from importing oil from a country they control?

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'Y')eah but China will eventually suck all of it dry because oil is a nonrenewable resource. China's economy is going to collapse within the next ten years due to an oil shortage, I believe. Mark my words. The global economy will collapse within the next ten years due to oil shortages.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') Bottom line, oil demand is going to fall first where it is being used least economically. That is in the US, not China:

[ralfy]

It's not just China that one should consider but BRIC and around forty emerging markets.

It's not just oil needed to power vehicles that one looks at but oil needed to manufacture vehicles.

It's not just vehicles but appliances, electronic gadgets, and other goods and services that are part of middle class conveniences.

And it's not just oil but all sorts of resources needed to manufacture these goods and provide these services.

[JuanP]

Desu, I mostly agree with how you see this.
Kubli, the article you provided contained this "If you’re a North American, using 22-24 barrels of oil per year, will you scale back and use less if the price goes up? Will you negotiate your non-negotiable standard of living? Probably yes, because, after all, you’ve got a lot of room on the downside of your demand. (Look at how those poor Europeans schlep by on 10 barrels per year.)"
I would point out that the writer is wrong in presuming that Americans' quality of life would be comparable To Europeans' life if we were forced to consume less. Many Europeans live better lives than we do today. If Americans can't live as well consuming more than double the resources, they can't be expected to do better with significantly less.
Most people in Miami are delusional and/or deranged. I am surrounded by ten million delusional ignorant fools. Most large cities in the world are the same. When they get halved, they will be at each others throats, they already are, basically. We will be better off than in many places in the USA, but the ride will be rough.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', 'T')here ain't going to be enough oil to sustain the Chinese economic growth. I'm sorry, but there just ain't enough oil for China.

[ROCKMAN]

D - I don't want to appear to be picking on you but: "There is no way there can be two countries in the world who uses as much oil as the USA. There simply isn't enough oil in the ground." Of course there's enough exported oil to supply both US and China. Together they currently import less than 15 million bopd. There's about 45 million bopd currently being exported. Both countries could double their imports and there would till be another 15 million bopd floating around the global market place. All both countries need do is outbid the other oil importers.

But since you're new here I assume you didn't catch the numerous conversations here about the Chinese govt's efforts to secure long term rights to future oil production compared to zero efforts by the US gov't. In theory China could eventually import every bbl of oil exported on the planet. All they need do is continue doing what they have been doing for many years now: long term purchase contracts, acquiring oil reserves in the ground and then outbidding other importers for what remains. Not possible? Well, every bbl of oil China imports today used to be imported by another country...until China stepped in and pushed them aside.

You do understand that despite what many Americans think we do not have Dog given right to import what oil we need, don't you? LOL.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'W')ell, every bbl of oil China imports today used to be imported by another country...until China stepped in and pushed them aside.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'T')hat makes me wonder about something, did global production ever increase or did it mostly peak and it's been a negligible increase? (I think it's the latter, but I get bored with oil so I don't know )

[DesuMaiden]

I am actually in China right now. There are a lot of cars on the streets. The roads are absolutely filled with cars

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'A')lso, the scrapped cars might be sold to developing economies.