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Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby Sixstrings » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 17:14:07

Ran across this,

There's a crazy new engine some guy cooked up. Was supposed to be "impossible." Uses microwaves and something about quantum vacuum virtual plasma.

So anyhow NASA tested the idea and it works. This kind of engine could cut a Mars trip down from 8 months to 2 weeks.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ASA Tests 'Impossible' Engine, Finds Out It's Really Fast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxRdNj0_8JU


According to that report, China is working on a similar drive called the "EM drive."

The "Cannae drive" mentioned in this report could get a ultra-light ultra-fast probe to Alpha Centauri with just 30 years travel time.

And I saw this speech from a NASA physicist about the NASA IXS Enterprise warp propulsion idea:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ASA 'Warp Drive' Space Craft Concept Is Beyond Stunning -'Full concept and Theory'

White has been working on a functional ward drive concept at Nasa's Johnson Space Centre since 2010. The idea is to try and warp space time, literally shortening the distance between two points around the ship and allowing it to travel faster than light.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKTgNCGhq9Y
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby Withnail » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 17:45:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')ix, 3-D printing is simple, elegant, inexpensive, fast, and imaginative for one simple reason: it prints plastic, not steel. It's a design and prototyping device. It will not manufacture solid metal replacement part for space mining, propulsion, habitat/containment. That requires incredible tensile and compressive strength at extreme temperatures and pressures, plus UV resistance in deep space without protective atmosphere of earth.


That's what i keep trying to tell him.

he doesnt understand about forged/tempered/machined precision components.

and on top of that you've got things like plating that you will have to do. Or alloying if you havent got the right alloy available.

he basically doesnt know anything about metal working.
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby RepublicanfromEngland » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 17:53:47

The Moon and Mars are the closest of locations, anywhere has much more challenging problems.

A trip to Jupiter is half a decade, never mind a moon in orbit.

Sure a probe could be sent there, but personnel, not for a long while.
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby radon1 » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 18:18:46

Antarctics.

Much closer and far more human-friendly. Lots of fresh water. No queues to colonise it though.
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby Keith_McClary » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 20:00:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'D')o you know about quantum mechanics? How things can be in different places at the same time? All zeros can be ones, and all ones zeros, all at once?
Which QM textbook do you use?
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby Keith_McClary » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 21:06:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'R')an across this,

There's a crazy new engine some guy cooked up. Was supposed to be "impossible." Uses microwaves and something about quantum vacuum virtual plasma.

Image
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat’s a quantum vacuum virtual plasma? I’d never heard the term, so I dropped a note to Sean Carroll, a Caltech physicist whose work dives deeply into speculative realms of cosmology and quantum theory.

Carroll wrote back immediately, with a pointed message: “There is no such thing as a ‘quantum vacuum virtual plasma,’ so that should be a tip-off right there. There is a quantum vacuum, but it is nothing like a plasma. In particular, it does not have a rest frame, so there is nothing to push against, so you can’t use it for propulsion. The whole thing is just nonsense. They claim to measure an incredibly tiny effect that could very easily be just noise.”
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/outth ... ErqwN-c1xk

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he incredible shrinking force

Around 2000, a guy named Roger Shawyer claimed he could bounce microwaves inside a fancy-shaped can and get them to push the can forwards, without anything leaving the can.

This would violate conservation of momentum. It's like sitting inside a car and making it roll forwards by pushing on the steering wheel. Standard physics doesn't allow this. He didn't claim to be using anything other than standard physics.

So: ho hum, just another guy with a really bad idea. I get emails like this all the time.

But in 2001, his company got a £45,000 grant from the British government to study this idea. He built his machine and claimed that with 850 watts of power he could get a force of 0.016 newtons. That's a bit less than the force of gravity from a penny pushing down on your hand. It could easily be an experimental error.

Why would people want a machine that uses lots of power to create a pathetically feeble force? Because - here's the great piece of salesmanship - if it existed, you could use it to build a reactionless drive! If you had a spaceship with huge amounts of power to spare - like, say, a nuclear reactor - you could use this gizmo to push your spaceship forwards without anything spewing out the back end.

Again, this is about as plausible as powering a spaceship by having the crew push on it from the inside. But if you don't know physics, it sounds very exciting.

The story goes on. And on. And on. It won't die. In 2012, some Chinese physicists claimed they could get a force of 0.720 newtons from a power of 2,500 watts using some version of Shawyer's device.

And now NASA is studying it!

They're claiming to see a force one thousandth as big as the Chinese - probably because they are doing the experiment one thousand times more accurately. And still, some people are excited about this.

The new device comes with new improved mumbo-jumbo. Shawyer claimed that thanks to special relativity, classical electromagnetism can violate conservation of momentum. I took those courses in college, I know that's baloney. Now the NASA scientists say:

"Test results indicate that the RF resonant cavity thruster design, which is unique as an electric propulsion device, is producing a force that is not attributable to any classical electromagnetic phenomenon and therefore is potentially demonstrating an interaction with the quantum vacuum virtual plasma."

This is baloney too - but now it's graduate-level baloney. "Quantum vacuum virtual plasma" is something you'd say if you failed a course in quantum field theory and then smoked too much weed. There's no such thing as "virtual plasma". If you want to report experimental results that seem to violate the known laws of physics, fine. But it doesn't help your credibility to make up goofy pseudo-explanations.

I expect that in 10 years the device will be using quantum gravity and producing even less force.
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby Sixstrings » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 00:48:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', 'A')ntarctics.

Much closer and far more human-friendly. Lots of fresh water. No queues to colonise it though.


Humanity has to expand off the planet, long term, to survive as a species.

That's what stephen hawking says, and I agree with him.

There's a lot of ways society could collapse on earth, so you need those breakaway colonies on the moon and out in the jovian system, as insurance. Humanity has to start expanding. Being stuck on earth is like a bottleneck on one continent.

Homo sapiens broke out of Africa to the rest of the earth, now we have to break out of the earth bottleneck into the solar system.

It has to be done, radon, long term. There could be nuclear war here, or any number of things, or a meteor impact. Eventually the sun will go red giant and swallow the planet. Humans will need to at least have expanded into those Jupiter moons by then, to survive.

Sure that's a long time from now -- hundreds of millions of years -- but if we don't take first steps then it will never happen. If civilization collapses and we regress and have a dark age and lose spacefaring tech, then it may never happen.

We have to use this window of opportunity to take those first steps. It's like how Columbus sailed to the Americas with those three little ships. And then it took a good century after that for colonization to really take off. But it never would have, if he'd never sailed, if those first little colonies were never planted.
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby Keith_McClary » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 01:53:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'S')ure that's a long time from now -- hundreds of millions of years -- but if we don't take first steps then it will never happen. If civilization collapses and we regress and have a dark age and lose spacefaring tech, then it may never happen.

We have to use this window of opportunity to take those first steps. It's like how Columbus sailed to the Americas with those three little ships. And then it took a good century after that for colonization to really take off. But it never would have, if he'd never sailed, if those first little colonies were never planted.

By "we" I guess you mean the gubmint. How much TAXES are you willing to pay for a gubmint project that may (or maybe it may not work) benefit some people hundreds of generations in the future, probably not including your own personal descendants.

TAXES TAXES TAXES TAXES TAXES TAXES TAXES TAXES TAXES
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby Quinny » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 03:14:48

Still searching for a free lunch?
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby Withnail » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 06:10:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')
There's a lot of ways society could collapse on earth, so you need those breakaway colonies on the moon and out in the jovian system, as insurance. Humanity has to start expanding. Being stuck on earth is like a bottleneck on one continent.



Humans can't live long term on the moon. Too much radiation, gravity too low.

Babies would have to be born on the moon in your scenario. They wouldn't develop properly in low gravity.
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby Sixstrings » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 14:20:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '
')By "we" I guess you mean the gubmint. How much TAXES are you willing to pay for a gubmint project that may (or maybe it may not work) benefit some people hundreds of generations in the future, probably not including your own personal descendants.

TAXES TAXES TAXES TAXES TAXES TAXES TAXES TAXES TAXES


Actually -- I'd HAPPILY pay a VAT or any kind of tax, if it went to some cool space stuff. But I'm in the minority there, I realize. :lol:

Do you know NASA's budget is actually very small, it's only $17 billion a year.

Compare that to Russia that spent $40 billion on an olympics. And, worse, Russia plans to spend $700 billion -- close to a trillion dollars -- on ICBMs and nuclear cruise missiles aimed at our cities. Isn't that lovely.

Imagine all that could be done in space, with $700 billion. Instead of just more nukes. That would be an Apollo type program, Russia could have a moon base and a explore the whole solar system with all that money. And like Apollo, any nation investing that much would discover and develop new technologies and it would be great for the economy. And they could wave their flag and be proud about that, instead of annexing places and repeating the 19th century with wars in the Ukraine and Crimea.

Everyone loves cool hardware. Military hardware is cool. Space hardware is even better though -- it's not about killing anyone or taking anyone's country from them. It's moving forward, as a species, it's new discoveries and advances. Did you know even the foil on your pack of bubble gum was a NASA spinoff tech from the '50s? We got so many advances out of spending all that money back in the space race, the list is endless, people just don't realize it. It was worth it just for that.

So anyhow, NASA only has $17 billion a year, and that's nothing.

I think the lower funding paradigm will actually work out, though. It's what's enabled an Elon Musk to find a niche by being the Walmart of Space and doing launches for a measly $50 million.

The Falcon Heavy will be so cheap, and it can get to Mars, that it will now be feasible for a private billionaire or interest groups -- like that Mars society -- to fund their own darn mission.

So all that is actually better than the massive big government programs. It actually is better for NASA to seed the private sector and unleash the private sector into space development.

Long story short -- it's actually not going to be all that expensive to develop space, going forward. All these technologies will keep getting cheaper. That's same as computers and Moore's law. 3d printers will get better and cheaper, you can bank on that, it's a sure thing. If you deny the progress of tech and that it gets smaller better and cheaper and more efficient, then you are just wrong, and you are blind to history, and you're a luddite.

We Americans need to get off our asses about space, and get back in the game and do some big things again, and we have to anyway because we have to keep up with the Chinese and anything they're doing in space has military applications too and we have to keep up we don't have a choice.

So let's do what we did in the Cold War, let's have best of both worlds, do the military spending in space but make it dual use and do as much exploration and civilian pure science as we are weapons.

I don't really like it that the Air Force has a space shuttle drone, but yet NASA does not. That Air Force drone isn't for exploration or science, it's just military. And it's a strange, odd sight, seeing the Air Force logo in space versus good ole NASA.

We need to fund NASA too.

We need to go back to the moon and make a station there. And then, human landing on mars. And then, human mission to orbit Jupiter and land on some of those moons. And just keep going, step by step, over decades and centuries and we'll get there.

It took Spain a hundred years after Columbus to get real colonization going. But all begins with those first steps.
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby Sixstrings » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 15:02:21

To answer your question another way, Keith..

You're basically saying why would people want to pay taxes for future generations.

Yet you and dohboi and others want a lot more money going into climate change. And I have no idea where the hell that money goes to. :?: :?: :?:

We had these same kinds of arguments back int he 1960s. People wanted more money for welfare.

So whatever, okay you spend money on welfare in the 1960s and don't go to the moon and then in fifty years YOU STILL HAVE PEOPLE ON WELFARE ANYWAY and you never went to the moon, either.

Apollo program was actually a very large expenditure, about $200 billion in 2014 dollars, and we've never done another like it. Other than the world wars, the Apollo program was the most monumental thing the US government has ever done. And it was a brilliant success.

Egypt has its pyramids.

China has the great wall.

And our civilization landed on the moon. Only America could have done it. The Soviets were close, they were trying, but couldn't. And now, half a century later, it's a big deal for other nations to land their first moon probes and plan for a manned landing. We did it first, though, and we did it with slide rules and archaic computers and we had to invent all this technology from scratch, good ole rocketry and rocket plumbing and the best scientists and engineers.

For goodness sake, did you know solar polar was developed because of the space program? So many advances, like that.

If you care about climate change and the environment then you HAVE TO BE a space supporter. That's satellites to study the sun with, and to study climate on earth, and to learn from climate on other moons.

And every tech needed for space will directly help climate change mitigation. Because everything needed for space means energy efficiency, and smaller better tech.

How can some of you guys be so interested in climate science, yet you're not interested in space science?

Science is science, you don't find it fascinating? Learning new things that humanity never knew before?

Btw, in 2015 NASA's New Horizons probe will arrive at Pluto. No telescope has ever been able to see what Pluto looks like, it's so far out. It's the closest of the kuiyper belt of ice dwarfs at the outer solar system -- a massive ring of moon like worlds, a whole lot of them, and we know little about it.

Pluto is a binary system with a smaller body called Charon and actually two other little moons so there are four spinning around. Pluto and Charon are binary though, orbiting each other, neither orbiting the other.

Pluto and Charon have a strange eliptical orbit and when they get closer to the sun the ice melts and they get a weird atmosphere going on.

So anyhow this will be exciting. We're going to get great pictures of these planetoids.

Every mission NASA does, adds new information and scientific knowledge that we didn't know before. You don't think that's worth it? What, are we just supposed to be stupid apes stuck on this planet forever and never understand or take a look at what's out there in the universe?

Even the ancient greeks were fascinated by the planets and stars. Well, we have rockets and can actually go to them, but we've got people bitching they'd rather see the money spent on welfare, or more mansions in the Hamptons for useless internet entrepreneurs. How the hell does a new Facebook game advance humanity. We need some old school industry again, and that's going to be space tech, that's why I like Elon Musk so much because after Paypal he went out there and did something REAL -- space capsules and rocket engines and it's real industry and all made in the USA.

Here's an idea, spend all that money on developing a massive American space industry and require it employ Americans and then you take care of two issues at once.

We have the resources to do this, in the USA. And we should. Because China plans to. We could be sitting pretty here, #1 in energy, and then stake out some new claim and be #1 in space. Let Russia fight wars in the Ukraine for another hundred years if they want to, and let's go do something new.

We should do this, just as Spain set off for the western hemisphere and laid claim to it, and populated continents. And wound up very rich for a long time and the New World was a Spanish world. And people said Columbus was an idiot too, at the time.
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby Sixstrings » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 15:36:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Withnail', 'H')umans can't live long term on the moon. Too much radiation, gravity too low.

Babies would have to be born on the moon in your scenario. They wouldn't develop properly in low gravity.


If Americans believed the words "it can't be done" then our ancestors would never have immigrated here to start with. Or then settled the frontiers across the continent, and then into space and we landed on the moon.

Vladimir Putin likes to say, constantly, that America is not exceptional. I'm sorry, but this is exceptional:

Image

If Russia wants to be exceptional and unite with national pride, then why not do it in a healthy way and add real advancement to mankind. Chinese people are all excited about their moon rover and their space program.

Russia could do the same, why spend $700 billion on nukes? Why? That's a hell of a lot of money, so much more could be done with $700 billion.

Why not plant the Russian flag on the Moon, and Mars, instead of in Crimea and a Baltics next or a Moldova?

Jesus, spend that $700 billion on space tech. It would actually help the Russian economy, not tank it like Putin's militarism is doing.

Instead of complaining about American exceptionalism, Putin should make Russia *exceptional* and do things nobody has ever done before -- OTHER than another war in the Ukraine.

edit: oh sorry, I need my glasses, I thought you were radon. :P You're pro putin anyway though so it still applies

about low g.. you know, before the first man in space, a lot of scientists seriously thought the human body couldn't stand low g at all. Turns out it's no big deal.

And I'll tell you something else, the Skylab astronauts had less bone loss than the ones we've got on the ISS. And my own theory is because Skylab was so big -- it was a Saturn rocket stage -- and they just had more room in there.

Russians were already living on Mir for years, and we've had the space station up there now forever, the low g isn't a problem. Human body is extremely adaptable. Also -- artificial gravity isn't difficult, all you need is to get a centrifuge spinning. that just takes a tube habitat and a rocket burn and the thing will keep spinning with another little burn now and then.

If children are raised in low g, or zero g, then yes they'd be weak but -- they'd also just be suited to their environment. You don't need to be strong if there's no gravity. Long term, humans are adaptable just as people in the Andes have greater lung capacity, they've adapted to that climate.
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby Withnail » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 16:14:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')
If children are raised in low g, or zero g, then yes they'd be weak but -- they'd also just be suited to their environment.


They'd be more than weak, they'd be completely fucked up.

You'd be crippling them for life.

Also thanks for your helpful picture reminding me that America once landed on the moon.
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby RepublicanfromEngland » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 19:29:05

No, sadly space flight is full of difficulties. A lunar outpost was possible but just too expensive.

Private space flight may never do what government initiated flight has done.

Sixstrings you are too eager to type about space flight like it is just do able with no real problem. As for the Russian Federation, well they share their comitment to the station. The Russian agency has no plans. The government just can't afford it there.
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Re: Do you think we will ever inhabit other planets?

Postby dinopello » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 19:57:42

Space station resupply rocket blows up a couple hours ago (with video)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')n unmanned Antares rocket exploded six seconds after liftoff from NASA’s Wallops Island launch facility in Virginia late this evening.

The rocket, made by Dulles, Virginia-based Orbital Sciences, is a two-stage launch vehicle designed to ferry payloads to the International Space Station.

The rocket was carrying a Cygnus spacecraft packed with 5,055 pounds of supplies, science experiments, and equipment, according to Reuters. The rocket also carried a satellite owned by Planetary Resources, Inc. of Redmond, Wash.

The Orbital Sciences Corporation (ORB) stock fell after the explosion. As of 6:45 p.m. the share price fell 5.86 points (-19.30%) in after hours trading


Such a bummer if you were on the Planetary Resources team and your ride blows up.
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