by ohanian » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 09:49:22
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '(')Rapaport...April 12, 2005) The World Health Organization (WHO) has expressed concern that the rapidly spiraling death toll in the Marburg outbreak in Angola could spread through home care, as families tend their sick at home, without protective gear instead of isolating them in hospital.
This change in behaviour in humans could affect the predicted number of cases.
The purpose of hospital is not to cure the patient of the marburg virus. Its purpose is to isolate the patient from the rest of society.
As people changed their behaviour, this makes the spread of the virus easier.
In terms of prediction, this means the value of a rises from 0.06335
to 0.07? 0.08? 0.09???
So the prediction need to start again at 9th April 2005 as day 18.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c
a= 0.07
k= 42.9387
c= unknown
n( t==18 ) = 213
Solve for c. c= 61.63
n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c
a= 0.07
k= 42.9387
c= 61.63
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c
t cases death predicted cases
22-March-2005 0 107 100 107 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
23-March-2005 1 110 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
24-March-2005 2 113 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
25-March-2005 3 116 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
26-March-2005 4 119 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
27-March-2005 5 123 115 123 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
28-March-2005 6 124 117 127 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
29-March-2005 7 131 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
30-March-2005 8 132 127 135 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
31-March-2005 9 140 132 140 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
01-April-2005 10 145 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
02-April-2005 11 163 150 150 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
03-April-2005 12 156 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
04-April-2005 13 162 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
05-April-2005 14 181 156 168 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
06-April-2005 15 175 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
07-April-2005 16 200 174 182 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
08-April-2005 17 205 180 190 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
09-April-2005 18 213 184 213 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
10-April-2005 19 221 203 224 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
11-April-2005 20 236 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
12-April-2005 21 248 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
13-April-2005 22 262 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
14-April-2005 23 276 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
15-April-2005 24 292 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
16-April-2005 25 309 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
17-April-2005 26 327 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
18-April-2005 27 346 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
19-April-2005 28 366 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
20-April-2005 29 389 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
21-April-2005 30 412 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
22-April-2005 31 438 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
23-April-2005 32 465 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
24-April-2005 33 494 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
25-April-2005 34 526 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
26-April-2005 35 559 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
27-April-2005 36 595 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
28-April-2005 37 634 a=0.08 k=42.9387 c=61.63
29-April-2005 38 675 a=0.08 k=42.9387 c=61.63
30-April-2005 39 720 a=0.08 k=42.9387 c=61.63
')
Somehow deep in my heart I have a bad feeling that I'm going to under predict the number of cases again, just like my original prediction.