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THE Marburg Virus Thread

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Unread postby Barbara » Mon 11 Apr 2005, 03:25:21

This is very bad... on Recombinomics thay say virus may be spreaded by a vaccine:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04100 ... eding.html

Biowarfare?
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Unread postby entropyfails » Mon 11 Apr 2005, 07:57:07

Wow Barbara, good find.

That would give a reason for the people of Angola to attack WHO vehicles of the doctors trying to help. The rumor that a vaccine caused the problem sparked a riot. But it does beg the question, how the hell did vaccine get contaminated with Marburg?

Somebody’s got some questions to answer.

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Unread postby PhilBiker » Mon 11 Apr 2005, 10:20:18

The USSR developed a super bio weapon which was a combination of ebola and smallpox. Deadly like ebola and airborne and infectious like smallpox. Nasty stuff. There used to be a link at www.dieoff.com to an article about it. Really interesting.
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Unread postby ohanian » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 05:22:56

On Monday 11th April 2005

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') total of 221 cases of the Marburg virus have been discovered in Angola, out of which 203 resulted in death, putting the mortality rate countrywide from the outbreak at 92%, the health ministry and World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Monday.


The mortality rate of 93% is WRONG.

For every known case of patients in Angola which contracted marburg virus, there is only one patient that survived. Those who are not dead are merely dying.

If you get the virus in Angola, there are only two possible FINAL outcome:

1) You die 203/204=0.99500
2) You survive 1/204=0.00490

A mortality rate of 99.5%
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THE SKY IS FALLING!!!

Unread postby ohanian » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 08:48:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he data above gives detail on where Marburg patients have died, as well as where there are patients who are still alive. The total number of cases is up to 218, which is 62 shy of the record 280 fatalities for Ebola. However, the distribution of the cases suggests the data is lagging the actual cases by 1-2 weeks. Thus, it is likely that the number infected is already well in excess of 280, and since virtually all infected patients have died, a new fatality record has already been set.


Read all about it! http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04100 ... l_218.html
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Unread postby ohanian » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 09:49:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '(')Rapaport...April 12, 2005) The World Health Organization (WHO) has expressed concern that the rapidly spiraling death toll in the Marburg outbreak in Angola could spread through home care, as families tend their sick at home, without protective gear instead of isolating them in hospital.


This change in behaviour in humans could affect the predicted number of cases.

The purpose of hospital is not to cure the patient of the marburg virus. Its purpose is to isolate the patient from the rest of society.

As people changed their behaviour, this makes the spread of the virus easier.

In terms of prediction, this means the value of a rises from 0.06335
to 0.07? 0.08? 0.09???

So the prediction need to start again at 9th April 2005 as day 18.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c
a= 0.07
k= 42.9387
c= unknown

n( t==18 ) = 213

Solve for c. c= 61.63

n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c
a= 0.07
k= 42.9387
c= 61.63
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c
t cases death predicted cases
22-March-2005 0 107 100 107 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
23-March-2005 1 110 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
24-March-2005 2 113 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
25-March-2005 3 116 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
26-March-2005 4 119 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
27-March-2005 5 123 115 123 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
28-March-2005 6 124 117 127 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
29-March-2005 7 131 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
30-March-2005 8 132 127 135 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
31-March-2005 9 140 132 140 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
01-April-2005 10 145 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
02-April-2005 11 163 150 150 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
03-April-2005 12 156 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
04-April-2005 13 162 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
05-April-2005 14 181 156 168 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
06-April-2005 15 175 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
07-April-2005 16 200 174 182 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
08-April-2005 17 205 180 190 a=0.06335 k=42.9387 c=64.0613
09-April-2005 18 213 184 213 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
10-April-2005 19 221 203 224 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
11-April-2005 20 236 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
12-April-2005 21 248 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
13-April-2005 22 262 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
14-April-2005 23 276 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
15-April-2005 24 292 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
16-April-2005 25 309 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
17-April-2005 26 327 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
18-April-2005 27 346 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
19-April-2005 28 366 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
20-April-2005 29 389 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
21-April-2005 30 412 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
22-April-2005 31 438 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
23-April-2005 32 465 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
24-April-2005 33 494 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
25-April-2005 34 526 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
26-April-2005 35 559 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
27-April-2005 36 595 a=0.07 k=42.9387 c=61.63
28-April-2005 37 634 a=0.08 k=42.9387 c=61.63
29-April-2005 38 675 a=0.08 k=42.9387 c=61.63
30-April-2005 39 720 a=0.08 k=42.9387 c=61.63
')

Somehow deep in my heart I have a bad feeling that I'm going to under predict the number of cases again, just like my original prediction.
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Unread postby ohanian » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 10:00:46

I have run the equation into the DEEP FUTURE.

The number of predicted cases will reach 6 billion on 15th December 2005.

hmmm......
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Unread postby khebab » Tue 12 Apr 2005, 10:12:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'I') have run the equation into the DEEP FUTURE.

The number of predicted cases will reach 6 billion on 15th December 2005.

hmmm......

What is the mode of transmission of the virus? I have read that it is through bodily fluids. In that case, it can be easily contained.
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Marburg Virus Outbreak in Uganda

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 05 Oct 2014, 15:17:55

Man dies from Ebola-like Marburg virus in Uganda

A hospital technician has died of the Ebola-like Marburg virus in Kampala, the Ugandan government announced on Sunday.


The man, aged 30, died in the Mengo hospital where he worked in the capital of the east African country on September 28, 11 days after falling ill, the authorities said.
Tests confirmed the presence of the disease two days later.

The Marburg virus is one of the most deadly known pathogens. Like Ebola, it causes severe bleeding, fever, vomiting and diarrheoa.
The victim's brother and one other person he was in contact with have so far "developed signs" of the disease, the ministry of health said in a statement.
"So far, a total of 80 people who got into contact with the initial confirmed case have been identified and isolated for the 21-day incubation period," it added.
"These include 38 health workers from Mengo hospital and 22 health workers from Mpigi Health Center IV."


http://medicalxpress.com/news/2014-10-d ... ganda.html?
*************************************************************
What the hell is going on EBOLA is enough mother earth we do not need Marburg

:cry:

Guys we have a Marburg Virus OUTBREAK in UGANDA

ALARM BELL

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marburg_virus

Image

http://ang.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uganda
Video History
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArvRd6VejRI
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Re: Marburg Virus Outbreak in Uganda

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 08 Oct 2014, 09:56:48

http://us.cnn.com/2014/10/07/health/uga ... index.html?

99 in Uganda quarantined after Marburg virus death
From Samson Ntale, for CNN
updated 9:29 AM EDT, Wed October 8, 2014

Kampala, Uganda -- (CNN) -- Three days after a fatal case of Marburg hemorrhagic fever was diagnosed in Uganda, 99 people have been quarantined in four different locations across the East African country, as field epidemiologists and surveillance officers continue to closely monitor all people who got into contact with only victim....
************************
Ebolas brother Marburg joins the biological battlefield in Africa ....... :(

Full biological war against Homo Sapiens started by Gaia?!

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Re: Marburg Virus Outbreak in Uganda

Unread postby KingM » Wed 08 Oct 2014, 10:00:59

In other words, you've just now noticed that there are lots of nasty bugs in Africa, and nearly a billion people on which to inflict them?
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Re: Marburg Virus Outbreak in Uganda

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 08 Oct 2014, 10:24:52

I am looking for THE virus not any virus but THE virus which can kill 1/2 of us all on earth in only 2 years.

1,03^t
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Re: Marburg Virus Outbreak in Uganda

Unread postby KingM » Wed 08 Oct 2014, 11:30:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('M_B_S', 'I') am looking for THE virus not any virus but THE virus which can kill 1/2 of us all on earth in only 2 years.

1,03^t


Why are you looking for that? Do you belong to some sort of doomsday cult?
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Re: Marburg Virus Outbreak in Uganda

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 08 Oct 2014, 11:35:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('M_B_S', 'I') am looking for THE virus not any virus but THE virus which can kill 1/2 of us all on earth in only 2 years.

1,03^t

Image
Why are you looking for that? Do you belong to some sort of doomsday cult?


Every Peak Oiler is member of a doomsday cult:

PEAK OIL!

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Re: Marburg Virus Outbreak in Uganda

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 11 Oct 2014, 03:22:29

Image
Marburg Virus

http://en.ria.ru/world/20141010/1939183 ... ed-in.html?


October 10 (RIA Novosti) - The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified some 146 contacts in Uganda, which are currently being monitored for signs and symptoms of Marburg virus disease (MVD), the organization reported on Friday.
"As of today, a total of 146 contacts have been identified and are being monitored for signs and symptoms compatible with MVD.
Eleven of the contacts developed signs and symptoms compatible with Marburg virus disease.
**************
BAD NEWS

Marburg Virus is spreading in Uganda from Case 0

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Re: Marburg Virus Outbreak in Uganda

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 25 Oct 2014, 13:29:08

Good news : Marburg Virus under control in Uganda!

A 30-year-old medical technician died from Marburg on September 28, 11 days after falling ill in a Kampala hospital where he worked, sparking alarm.
"At the moment there are no new cases reported or suspected," senior health ministry official Issa Makumbi told AFP.
Five people placed in isolation in the east African nation earlier this month had all been cleared and released, he added.
The Marburg virus is one of the most deadly known pathogens. Like Ebola, it causes severe bleeding, fever, vomiting and diarrhoea and has a 21-day incubation period.
Uganda has passed more than 21 days since the last confirmed infection: that of the hospital worker who died.
But it is yet to pass the 42 day period needed until the complete all clear is given.

******************
Good job Uganda! :!:

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Re: THE Marburg Virus Thread

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 28 Oct 2017, 09:44:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n 17 October 2017, the Ugandan Ministry of Health notified WHO of a confirmed outbreak of Marburg virus disease in Kween District, Eastern Uganda. The Ministry for Health officially declared the outbreak on 19 October 2017.

As of 24 October, five cases have been reported – one confirmed case, one probable case with an epidemiological link to the confirmed case, and three suspected cases including two health workers.

Chronologically, the first case-patient (probable case) reported was a male in his 30s, who worked as a game hunter and lived near a cave with a heavy presence of bats. On 20 September, he was admitted to a local health centre with high fever, vomiting and diarrhoea, and did not respond to antimalarial treatment. As his condition deteriorated, he was transferred to the referral hospital in the neighbouring district, where he died the same day. No samples were collected. He was given a traditional burial, which was attended by an estimated 200 people.

The sister (confirmed case) of the first case-patient nursed him and participated in the burial rituals. She became ill and was admitted to the same health centre on 5 October 2017 with fever and bleeding manifestations. She was subsequently transferred to the same referral hospital, where she died. She was given a traditional burial. Posthumous samples were collected and sent to the Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI). On 17 October, Marburg virus infection was confirmed at UVRI by RT-PCR and it was immediately notified to the Ministry of Health.

The third case-patient (suspected case) is the brother of the first two cases. He assisted in the transport of his sister to the hospital, and subsequently became symptomatic. He refused to be admitted to hospital, and returned to the community. His whereabouts are currently not known though there is an ongoing effort to find him.

Two health workers who were in contact with the confirmed case have developed symptoms consistent with Marburg virus disease and are under investigation (suspected cases). Laboratory results to rule out Marburg virus disease are pending.

Contact tracing and follow-up activities have been initiated. As of 23 October, 155 contacts including 66 who had contact with the first case and 89 who had contact with the second case-patient have been listed in the two affected districts, including 44 health care workers. The number of family and community contacts is still being investigated.

Public health response

The Ugandan Ministry of Health has rapidly responded to the outbreak, with support from WHO and partners. A rapid response field team was deployed to the two affected districts within 24 hours of the confirmation.
To coordinate response activities, the National Task Force has convened, an Incident Management System (IMS) framework implemented with an Incident Manager appointed, a District Task Force has been established, and an emergency rapid response plan has been developed.
Marburg virus disease response activities have been initiated, including surveillance, active case search, contact tracing and follow-up, as well as monitoring within affected communities and healthcare centres.
Personal protective equipment has been deployed in the affected districts. Healthcare workers have been put on high alert and training sessions are planned, including a thorough review of infection prevention and control (IPC) protocols and capacity. An isolation facility is being prepared at the health centre and the hospital.
Training of teams for safe and dignified burials has been conducted in affected districts.
Community engagement and awareness campaigns are ongoing to reduce stigma, encourage reporting and early healthcare seeking behaviours, and acceptance of prevention measures. Information, education and communication materials and messages have been updated and are being produced.
International partners and stakeholders have been engaged at country level, and internationally to provide support and technical assistance for the response as needed. WHO has deployed additional staff, and six viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) kits. Funding has been provided from the WHO Contingency Fund for Emergencies to ensure immediate support and scale up the response. WHO has alerted partners in the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN), and is coordinating international support for the response.
UNICEF is assisting with communication activities, and community engagement.
Médecins Sans Frontières has deployed to support setting up of treatment centres.
WHO risk assessment

Marburg virus disease is an emerging and highly virulent epidemic-prone disease associated with high case fatality rates (case fatality rate: 23–90%). Marburg virus disease outbreaks are rare. The virus is transmitted by direct contact with the blood, body fluids and tissues of infected persons or wild animals (e.g. monkeys and fruit bats).

Candidate experimental treatments and vaccine are being reviewed for potential clinical trials.

Uganda has previous experience in managing recurring viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks including Marburg virus disease. Cases have historically been reported among miners and travellers who visited caves inhabited by bat colonies in Uganda. Marburg virus disease outbreaks have been documented during:

2007 – 4 cases, including 2 deaths in Ibanda District, Western Uganda;
2008 – 2 unrelated cases in travellers returning to the Netherlands and USA, respectively after visiting caves in Western Uganda;
2012 – 15 cases, including 4 deaths in Ibanda and Kabale districts, Western Uganda; and
2014 – 1 case in healthcare professional from Mpigi District, Central Uganda.
As of 24 October, five cases have been identified – one confirmed case, one probable case, and three suspected cases, and the outbreak remains localised. Ugandan health authorities have responded rapidly to this event, and measures are being rapidly implemented to control the outbreak. The high number of potential contacts in extended families, at healthcare facilities and surrounding traditional burial ceremonies is a challenge for the response. In addition, hospitalised cases were handled in general wards without strict infection control precautions, and one probable case refused to be hospitalised for a period of time.

The affected districts are in a rural, mountainous area located on the border with Kenya, about 300km northeast of Kampala on the northern slopes of Mount Elgon National Park. The Mount Elgon caves are a major tourist attraction, and are host to large colonies of cave-dwelling fruit bats, known to transmit the Marburg virus. The close proximity of the affected area to the Kenyan border, and cross-border movement between the affected district and Kenya and the potential transmission of the virus between colonies and to humans, increases the risk of cross-border spread.

These factors suggest a high risk at national and regional level, requiring an immediate, coordinated response with support from international partners. Tourism to Mount Elgon including the caves and surrounding areas should be noted and appropriate advice given and precautions taken. The risk associated with the event at the global level is low.

WHO advice

Human-to-human transmission of Marburg virus is primarily associated with direct contact with blood and body fluids, and Marburg virus transmission associated with provision of health care has been reported when appropriate infection control measures have not been observed.


http://www.who.int/csr/don/25-october-2 ... uganda/en/
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