[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('h2', 'A')s rockman noted I believe in the beginning of this thread, nobody ever doubted that higher oil prices brought on by a global peak in production would bring on further resource production, ie, the stuff that was not economical to produce at pre peak prices, at least nobody who has a clue about how things work doubted that, nor is it a surprise that the country with the largest by far number of oil wells drilled would be able to take advantage of a fracking bubble caused by hiigh oil prices caused by global peaks in petroleum production.

But the real strawman is the pretense that a bunch of doomers, who jumped on the peak oil train because it lets them be doomers, have anything to do with the serious discussions done mostly by real petroleum geologists (not stock market shills trying to squeeze the last sucker bets out of the suckers before the fracking bubble pops) always put the peak at around 2005 (worst case) around 2012 (mid case) and about 2020 (best case). You can cherry pick sources all you want, but when I first read dieoff.com, which had a nice collection of articles by guys like campbell, deffeyes, etc, that was what I learned, and that has never changed. Campbell for example, was very realistic about the scenario of what would happen globally when peak production hit, and what he thought would happen is precisely what did happen, which is kind of obvious if you grasp that money is just a way to give access to resources.

Further, a bumpy plateau was predicted, caused by exactly what we are seeing globally now, high oil prices caused by declining production brings on new production, aka, fracking, but then the high prices begin to disrupt economies, which were built on cheap energy prices, demand drops a touch, new production is pulled off line, rather, drilling is stopped, production begins to drop, prices begin to rise, blah blah, and so on. In other words, exactly what we are in now.

[Graeme]

In Search Of Oil Realism

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ussell Gold's Wall Street Journal article "Why Peak-Oil Predictions Haven't Come True" hit the web yesterday. And given Gold's position as senior energy reporter for the Journal, this is likely the highest profile Peak Oil article of the year. You may also remember Gold from the great video interviews filmed as part of his book tour for his latest work "The Boom: How Fracking Ignited the American Energy Revolution and Changed the World."

Gold's article comes from a very optimistic side of the Peak Oil Debate, but the pessimistic position isn't as weak as Gold suggests.


The definition of Peak Oil is the "maximum rate of oil production" - it's a number, nothing more, nothing less. Production of all finite resources eventually reach a peak in production. That's not controversial, it's not scary, it's just a number.


Despite what you've heard, Peak Oil isn't dead. The Peak Oil community hasn't disappeared. They're still here, perhaps with different names and different forms, still working to produce data-driven arguments in pursuit of the best policy solutions to our collective energy challenges.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]In Search Of Oil Realism

[ralfy]

One has to consider not just physical limitations involving oil production but many other factors, such as the effects of global warming and environmental damage. Also, economics in this case involves growth, which ultimately becomes dependent on accessing more energy and material resources.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'O')ne has to consider not just physical limitations involving oil production but many other factors, such as the effects of global warming and environmental damage. Also, economics in this case involves growth, which ultimately becomes dependent on accessing more energy and material resources.

[ralfy]

For me, there's little difference between human extinction and most human beings dying because of mass die-offs of most plant and animal species.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'F')or me, there's little difference between human extinction and most human beings dying because of mass die-offs of most plant and animal species.