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Oil price: It's All Your Fault For Talking About Peak Oil

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Oil price: It's All Your Fault For Talking About Peak Oil

Postby BabyPeanut » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 14:43:11

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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')UN. 21 4:59 P.M. ET Global oil production is not likely to peak anytime soon, contrary to talk that has helped propel prices close to $60 a barrel...

All Right! Knock it off! Don't you know you are making the price of oil go up with all your blather!
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Postby aahala » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 14:53:58

Maybe we should rename this site reflectionpointoil.com.
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Long time no type?

Postby pilferage » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 14:54:51

Well... better to be safe than sorry. :-D
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Postby RonMN » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 15:04:21

I invested in oil...KEEP TALKIN' guys :)

Next we'll be talkin "peak houses" to make those go further up...no housing bubble anytime soon as long as we keep talkin' :razz:
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Postby Wildwell » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 15:14:26

"The truth is, I don't know whether we're resource-constrained or effort-constrained, and neither does anybody else,"

...says it all really..
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Postby thor » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 15:53:22

Isn't it our purpose to delay PO as much as possible? For if our "chatter" has caused those price hikes then we have attained our objective to destroy demand for oil. So folks, keep talking until we reach $250/barrel. :-D
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Postby khebab » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 16:24:07

Economists are fighting back! they don't like the fact that obscure underground peakoilers are right in their predictions.
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Postby MicroHydro » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 17:12:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thor', 'I')sn't it our purpose to delay PO as much as possible? For if our "chatter" has caused those price hikes then we have attained our objective to destroy demand for oil. So folks, keep talking until we reach $250/barrel. :-D


Yes, plus very profitable for my retirement account. :-D
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Postby BabyPeanut » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 17:34:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thor', 'I')sn't it our purpose to delay PO as much as possible? For if our "chatter" has caused those price hikes then we have attained our objective to destroy demand for oil. So folks, keep talking until we reach $250/barrel. :-D


Yes, plus very profitable for my retirement account. :-D

Hope you find a way of eating money.
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Postby PO_TimeCr0ss » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 19:43:37

Woah, woah. Lets keep it oil related.

I mean, you know...lets stay off the "peak pr0n" or "peak movies on demand" or something. Gotta keep those prices low! :lol:
" Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary"
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Postby nero » Thu 23 Jun 2005, 00:44:35

On a serious note.

I do think that peak oil talk will have a serious impact on the production profile. I think that the talk informs the oil rich countries that they should hold on tight to their oil because it's only going to become more valuable. I don't know if this will bring about an early peak or not but, I think that that is what Bush and company are worried about.
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Postby cammo2004 » Thu 23 Jun 2005, 01:21:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', 'E')conomists are fighting back! they don't like the fact that obscure underground peakoilers are right in their predictions.


You know, it's kindof ironic that their own economic theories predict the consequences of peak oil...

Oh, and for the record, I am familiar with basic economics. I did it in Year 12.

:)
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Postby BabyPeanut » Thu 23 Jun 2005, 08:06:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'O')n a serious note.

I do think that peak oil talk will have a serious impact on the production profile. I think that the talk informs the oil rich countries that they should hold on tight to their oil because it's only going to become more valuable. I don't know if this will bring about an early peak or not but, I think that that is what Bush and company are worried about.

Couldn't that backfire? If the infrastructure that uses oil is heavily damaged won't the value of oil drop?
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Postby nero » Thu 23 Jun 2005, 14:09:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('babypeanut', 'C')ouldn't that backfire? If the infrastructure that uses oil is heavily damaged won't the value of oil drop?


I mean that the oil producers will start playing chicken with the other producers. They don't want to strangle the supply to the oil consuming countries they will just act in their self interest. As long as some other country is willing to deplete their oil fields first it will make sense for some to hold on to their reserves to wait for the higher prices.

For the "powers that be" in many countries it doesn't make any sense to hord the oil for the long term because they have no security that they will remain in power for the long term. Only in countries like Saudi Arabia where the rulers can anticipate staying in power indefinitely would it make sense to do some long term planning. It makes a good conspiracy theory that the reason the neocons want to spread democracy to the Middle East is to boost oil production. They want the oil rich countries to sell the oil NOW instead of waiting for a better price down the road and so want rulers installed that don't think past the next election.
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Postby BabyPeanut » Thu 23 Jun 2005, 14:23:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'A')s long as some other country is willing to deplete their oil fields first it will make sense for some to hold on to their reserves to wait for the higher prices.

But isn't spare capacity really a thing of the past now? Don't producers all have to run at full tilt just to keep the system from collapsing?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'I')t makes a good conspiracy theory that the reason the neocons want to spread democracy to the Middle East is to boost oil production.

Do you seriously believe that if the US pulled out of Iraq now there would still be 1.3 million barrels of oil a day getting from Iraq to the US?
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Postby nero » Thu 23 Jun 2005, 14:37:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut isn't spare capacity really a thing of the past now? Don't producers all have to run at full tilt just to keep the system from collapsing?


It makes most economic sense to not develop the field until you are going to start producing. Spare capacity isn't equivalent to hoarding. You could simply choose not to develop a field which SA, Iraq and Kuwait have done in the past. If these countries believed peak oil was going to be a factor they should take a slow approach to developing these new fields. Ideally OPEC would switch from mandating a ceiling to mandating a floor if universal hoarding became a problem.
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Postby Bandidoz » Thu 23 Jun 2005, 15:13:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', 'M')aybe we should rename this site reflectionpointoil.com.

Sorry to be pedantic, but I think you mean "InflectionPoint"
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Postby JohnDenver » Thu 23 Jun 2005, 20:41:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'I')deally OPEC would switch from mandating a ceiling to mandating a floor if universal hoarding became a problem.


That would only handle one side of the problem. The other side is private speculators buying the product after it is out of the ground and sitting on it. If oil is the most rapidly inflating commodity, it would make sense to use it as a store of wealth and "bank" with it. I don't know how you would control that tendency.
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Postby JohnDenver » Thu 23 Jun 2005, 21:01:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'I') do think that peak oil talk will have a serious impact on the production profile. I think that the talk informs the oil rich countries that they should hold on tight to their oil because it's only going to become more valuable.


Nero, how do you square this with your previous comment:
"The oil market must be one of the harder things around to pump and dump (unless you are the CEO of Aramco everyone knows you don't have any better information than the next guy)."

It seems to me (and to you?) that the oil market is being pumped with talk.
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eh?

Postby goetic_neuromancer » Thu 23 Jun 2005, 22:34:21

who said the point is to delay peak as long as possible? i dont think that is fun. fuck the shit slide. im young, bring on the fan. better than when im 35. i talk alot about it. fuck it.

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