[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'W')ith an estimated 70 BILLION bbls of oil

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I')ts highly unlikely that tight shale oil production will end in the next few years when the amount of tight shale oil in the Permian basin is so huge.

[Pops]

Take a look at the report I just linked instead of parroting press release fluff, plant.

Actually here, let me do it for you:



Notice the second row graphs showing a continually increasing decline in legacy fields.

Meet the Red Queen.

[KingM]

I know they're overly optimistic with future outlooks, but have they been shown to be inaccurate with current and past data?

[Pops]

I think the EIA fills in the blanks some for recent production if they don't have real numbers, Ron at PeakOilBarrel has talked about it.

I assume the older the date the better the data.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Notice the second row graphs showing a continually increasing decline in legacy fields.

Meet the Red Queen.

[Pops]

King M, here are a couple of links, one is the August drilling report (same as linked above) and the other is the same report from February of this year. From just a quick look there are quite a few differences going back years.

Obviously that data is massaged constantly, revised back years. Not sure when they decide when it is revised enough.

[shallow sand]

Looks like the Permian production will continue to grow provided the drilling continues a break neck pace. Would think even the most optimistic would be concerned by ever increasing legacy decline numbers. Is the percentage of 45 plus gravity in the Permian production statistics also growing?

[Pops]

I just found this link today
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eiagov/

Here is a distribution chart for the Permian, I didn't see volume

[Graeme]

The World’s Largest Oil Producer Is…

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').the United States. Have you heard?

Computer scientist and data whiz Randy Olson dove into the UT Energy Poll data and noticed that the American public is pretty confused about where we get out energy. I can’t say I’m surprised, but Randy highlights the need for raising energy literacy across the U.S.


And perhaps, most surprising: 60% of the oil that Americans use is produced in the U.S.

Go read Randy’s terrific blog for more detail and keep in mind that the U.S is now the world’s largest oil producer. Really.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]The World’s Largest Oil Producer Is…

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').the United States. Have you heard?

Computer scientist and data whiz Randy Olson dove into the UT Energy Poll data and noticed that the American public is pretty confused about where we get out energy. I can’t say I’m surprised, but Randy highlights the need for raising energy literacy across the U.S.


And perhaps, most surprising: 60% of the oil that Americans use is produced in the U.S.

Go read Randy’s terrific blog for more detail and keep in mind that the U.S is now the world’s largest oil producer. Really.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'a')nd keep in mind that the U.S is now the world’s largest oil producer. Really.

[Graeme]

Great to have these perceptions corrected even for those educated people at Scientific American!

[Graeme]

When Will The Peak Oil Crisis Begin?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or those following the world oil production situation, it has been clear for some time that the only factor keeping global crude output from moving lower is the continuing increase in U.S. shale oil production, mostly from Texas and North Dakota. Needless to say, once the fabled “peak” comes oil and gasoline prices are certain to move higher, triggering a series of economic events – most of which will not be good for the global economy.

Thus the key question is just how many more months or years production of U.S. shale oil (more accurately call light tight oil) will continue to grow. Many have answers to this question ranging from the “next year or so” on out the middle or end of the next decade. Some forecasts as to time remaining until the “peak” arrives are politically tinged. No politician, business manager, or even investor wants to hear that serious economic problems affecting their lives may be only a few years away. Fortunately for these folks, there are many forecasters available to spin stories about how “technology” will enable US shale oil production to continue on into the dim future of the 2020’s – which most of us really can’t comprehend or plan for.


Independent analyses of U.S. shale oil generally come to the same conclusion that production will peak in the 2016-2017 timeframe, but as noted above see a much faster decline than does the government.

There are however, other factors that could become the primary cause of world oil production peaking in the next few years. The first is the turmoil in the Middle East. A lot of oil production in the region has dropped off line in recent years for political reasons and Iraqi production is endangered. The spread of militant Islam could eventually threaten other major producers in the region as could the Arab-Israeli standoff.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'N')otice the second row graphs showing a continually increasing decline in legacy fields.

[shallow sand]

What is the definition of a "legacy field"? What percentage of horizontal Permian wells are profitable at $85 at the wellhead? Assume associated gas and condensate help profitability. Which zones formations are best? Sprayberry, Cline, Bone Spring, others? Seems like much more area than either Eagle Ford or Bakken, so maybe will be the ultimate shale play? Note that Energen sold its gas utility for 1.6 billion to drill more wells here, so must be some good returns?

[ROCKMAN]

Shallow - TO me legacy just means old...like me and maybe you. Yes: be it known to all that the Rockman is a " legacy geologist". LOL. As far as the PB goes I don't track it too close but my perception is that majority of the production gain has come from those "legacy fields" and not new previously undilled areas. And let's not forget that even with all these high falootin new plays the average oil well in this country produces less than 15 bopd. IOW the vast majority of oil wells in this country are producing in those legacy fields.

[vtsnowedin]

One think that continues to disturb me is the flaring of gas in North Dakota. How much would it cost per unit to capture and liquify that gas to allow it to be marketed? Wasting that gas is akin to cutting the last tree on Easter Island.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'N')otice the second row graphs showing a continually increasing decline in legacy fields.