[LadyRuby]

This is not good for my health. Since I've really found out about peak oil I've become a little obsessed, mostly because it seems the peak may be here soon. I am at turns convinced that this is a real, extremely serious, imminent problem. Then at other turns I'll really doubt myself and wonder if I've been suckered into believing the peak will be here soon by a handful of influential (and intelligent, I think) writers and analysts.

I like to think I'm just a regular person, not susceptible to bizarre conspiracy theories or dire predictions of the end of the world. Pretty level headed, etc. I've never been preoccupied like this before.

Am I sane to believe the handful of people who are saying the peak is near? Are those people who are saying this sane? Or instead looking for attention? Trying to sell a book? If you're someone out there who also is not generally susceptible to conspiracy theories or apocalypic predictions, I'd love to know I'm not alone...

[jato]

Just study the United States' peak in oil production and subsequent decline. You will see that the issue is very real. As to when global peak oil will occur, you need to read all points of view and decide for yourself. I have digested the information and concluded that global peak oil is here now or will be here by 2010 at the latest.

We are obviously dealing with a disinformation campaign coming from OPEC, etc. Since the data on oil reserves is sketchy, I like to think in terms of date ranges as opposed to a specific point in time.

[Aaron]

Well the jig is up...

I'll contact Dr. Smalley and Mat Simmons and Colin Campbelland tell them Ruby figured out our little joke, and they can stop speaking & publishing about peak oil.

Smalley faked all that Nobel Prize Nano stuff anyway...

Man... Whew!

We really had you going...

[RonMN]

Ruby...i spent 4 or 5 months studying PO just so i could DISPROVE it. Turns out the joke was on me...because i couldn't. Even if "peak" doesn't happen in the next year...we are wittnessing - right now- demand exceeding supply...and that's enough to spell a disaster.

I don't know what more i can say...except that i read a thread under the PSYCOLOGY section where a person asked "Why can i see this and all of my freinds/family can't? What is so special about me?".

I really liked that thread!!!

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'T')his is not good for my health.

[LadyRuby]

Aaron said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ll contact Dr. Smalley and Mat Simmons and Colin Campbelland tell them Ruby figured out our little joke, and they can stop speaking & publishing about peak oil.

[cat]

I can relate to you LadyRuby. I've been a bit obsessed myself since discovering this whole thing. The obsessive part may be a bit unhealthy, but I do believe this is a real crisis. I don't know what the time line of PO is going to be, and I don't know how things are going to play out exactly. But, I truely believe we are headed for disaster. Our problems with oil are not just PO, but instability in the countries that supply us with oil, and the huge threat of global warming. Add oil issues in with other problems facing our economy, (i.e. debt, bubbles, social security) and things could blow up at anytime. All of these things are screaming at us to live differently. Even if peak is 20 years away there is still much urgency. If it is later rather than sooner maybe we can prepare and soften our landing a bit.

I have three small children and have been in a surburban fog for the last eight years. I think that PO has caused my brain to start to function again, maybe a little anyway. In school I focused on envionmental issues, "overshoot" and sustainable communities, when I graduated I worked as a social worker. When I got pregnant with my first I quit my job and my husband and I moved into exurbia. Since, I have pretty much gotten myself caught up on the surburban tredmill (husband works 60+ hrs; house must look like it came out of a Pottery Barn catalog; SUV; etc.) I think this is really a good thing for me because it has kicked me back into reality. It has caused me to start to think and learn about my world, beyond my local paper. Most importantly, it has made me ask very important questions about the way I am living and about how I want to raise my children. In 20 years my kids will be 28, 25 and 22, just beginning their lives - how can I prepare them for the world that lies before them? How can I change my lifestyle to insulate my family and do what is right, or at least better for our world? Even without PO, couldn't that lifestyle possibly be a healthier one? I have now begun the journey to figuring out the answers to those questions, and that may take a little obsessing.

[Bas]

don't worry too much Ruby, alot of our fellow posters here are armageddon-horny (any Jehovah Witnesses here?) but that's really not going to happen, think of it like this; the glas is still half full. Also demand slowdown will start outside of the western world first if prices rise a litlle further. People are starting to look for efficient cars and biodiesel/alcohol will be economically viable before you know it. Also plastics out of biomass are making an entrance into the market.

Ofcours the economy will stall ,people will lose jobs and inflation may be high at times. This all will result in real wages dropping which in turn will generate jobs again. The economic crisis will accomodated much better than in the past but a recession or two will occor for sure as those are the necessary evil of an economy that is restructuring itself.

Hope this makes you feel a little better.

Bas

[UIUCstudent01]

At various times, I felt like that it was an elaborate hoax. Recently though, a friend stopped joking about Peak Oil and mentioned that oil reached almost $60, he seemed worried even though he doesn't know too much about it... and my brother's wife's father is an optimistic Peaker (He believes that thermal depolymerization will be huge )...

It seems as if when other people start validating my fears by starting to speak to me about it - it starts becoming real no matter how abstract 84,000,000 million barrels of oil seems to be. (Maybe that's how religion is...)

Alot of people I think won't be personally acting until it is too late. I'm probably one of those not doing 'enough' (some of these people on this site growing their own food, and out of debt, and such make me jealous...)

[MD]

Lady Ruby, my response was similar to yours. I have always laughed at doomers, and conspiracy theorists, Y2k doom was silly nonsense to me. Peak oil came along, caught my attention, then my skepticism.

Then I chose to dig, and dig deep for data. Hard numbers of data without associated commentary or analysis. I dug through industry reports, spreadsheets, petroleum review, alternative energy, etc etc and spent hours going through numbers, building my own spreadsheets and graphs, and my own conclusions.

Do so yourself, for your own sake.

[Cool Hand Linc]

When I first heard of PO. I thought, "What a bunch of nuts." Several other thoughts along the same lines. I quickly saw logic behind the concept. Then I too began looking at data. I thought I would find problems with the data being used. I did too. Not ASPO and the many others who have been correcting for the false reporting.

It's a cycle that many go through I think.

Through out history every generation, every population, every group will has had a challenge to meet. Mankind is still here. Man will survive this as well. The world will change but it will not end.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') like to think I'm just a regular person, not susceptible to bizarre conspiracy theories or dire predictions of the end of the world. Pretty level headed, etc. I've never been preoccupied like this before.

[Claudia]

Ruby, I feel the same way. I think you mentioned on another thread that your husband thought you were getting involved with a bunch of crazy Ted Kaczynski-like conspiracy theorists (?). I think that's an inevitable atmosphere that comes off a group like this one, where a bunch of people feel they know the truth about a coming disaster but the rest of the world is ignoring it. MD, you said the following here, which I thought was pretty insightful:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nfortunately, our posts clearly display the psychological response seen in new members of any common cult!

Sorry about that, it really ticks me off too, but that's the reality.

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m pretty convinced about the basic facts of peak oil, but this is because of things written by geologists and economists. If I ever have to talk to doubter friends about peak oil, that's the kind of information I'll refer them to. Once I understood the physical reality of peak oil from a geological perspective, and thought through the inevitable economic ramifications of this event, it was like a thunderclap. It was starkly undeniable. Kind of like when they discovered that bacteria were the main cause of stomach ulcers. It sounded crazy until you saw the data, and then all of a sudden it was not crazy at all. Now it's the standard teaching in every medical textbook.

[Claudia]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m glad I'm not the only one a little wary of the cultish feel that I sometimes find on this board!!!

[Grimnir]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'I')f you're someone out there who also is not generally susceptible to conspiracy theories or apocalypic predictions, I'd love to know I'm not alone...

[Madpaddy]

LadyRuby,

PO is true and you need to confront it as soon as possible. When the germans invaded Russia in 1941, Stalin locked himself in a room for 10 days because he just couldn't believe it. The lack of any clear decision making in those early days made the invasion even more costly for the Russians.

Don't bury your head in the sand.

[skiwi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grimnir', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'I')f you're someone out there who also is not generally susceptible to conspiracy theories or apocalypic predictions, I'd love to know I'm not alone...

[Cool Hand Linc]

Claudia wrote:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')It seems like a sane response to me! Your husband's reaction does too. I think it's very important not to fight skepticism. Fighting skepticism is a very cultish thing to do and just reinforces people's wariness. Like, "Why don't you believe?!?!?! Let me barrage you with information until I force you to agree with me."

Most of the people I like and respect are natural skeptics -- it's a healthy reaction that says, basically, "you have not yet shown me convincing facts," or, "I haven't digested your information yet, give me time," or, "your tone of voice is warning me you're trying to manipulate me toward a desired conclusion, and that makes me suspicious of your motives."

It's not that I won't try to tell people about this stuff -- but I try to work with the skepticism, not against it. It's the people who are not skeptics at first who scare me, honestly.

[CarlinsDarlin]

Sometimes it's good to bump up an old post , particularly, if you didn't get a chance to read it the first time around.

This past weekend, I had a bit of the "wacky" feeling myself. We had a family reunion. Now don't get me wrong, I do love my family, but they drive me insane from time to time too. Back to them in a minute...

I first stumbled upon peak oil from Matt Savinar's site as well. It scared the bejeezes out of me at the time. I didn't even discuss it for some time with my husband, because I wanted to be convinced before I brought it up. I'm one who has never believed in conspiracy theories, and I generally must do a lot of research on any topic before I'll believe what is being said. I followed links from Savinar's site, ordered the book and read it, and did a lot of research on line before I started to buy the argument.

At the time I learned about Peak Oil, I was already on my land and trying to determine what I could do to be as self-reliant as possible. I had a nagging feeling that things were heading down hill, but I couldn't quite put my finger on exactly what would be the mechanism that caused the "collapse" (for lack of a better term). I had read The Fourth Turning, and agreed with a lot of what was presented in that book. My learning about peak oil just filled in some missing pieces for me.

I'm doing what I would be doing anyway, regardless of my knowledge of peak oil, but that knowledge has sped my plans up considerably. We try to provide for as many of our needs as possible, and have a well stocked pantry, a large garden yearly, chickens, ducks, dairy goats, and rabbits. I try to do things in a sustainable manner, not using chemical fertilizers for example, but we are a long way from self-sufficient (if that is even possible).

Now back to the family. My cousin was making pizzas this weekend, and asked how I liked the pizza sauce. She said she'd made it herself from home canned tomatoes. I chuckled and replied that we were being buried in tomatoes (we put in 92 plants this year), and I'd already canned up over a hundred quarts. Her husband said, "Oh, so in the case of nuclear war we should all come to your house, huh?" I just smiled and said, only if you're willing to work.

We supplied 12 dozen eggs for the family reunion's breakfasts - from our hens. I would have supplied milk, too, but you'd think I was asking people to drink urine the way they turned their noses up at goats milk. I dread the day when they will come knocking on my door wanting some of that milk - I'm not quite sure how I will react, to be honest.

I resent being looked at as some survivalist wacko. That's the attitude I get from some people, both in the family and outside of it. It seems that if you feel you must take some responsibility for your own needs, rather than living like a parasite without giving anything back, then you must be crazy. IMO, crazy is taking continually without ever giving back. Sitting around waiting for manna from heaven generally results in starvation. No thanks, I'll try to produce my own little batch of manna here - or as close as I can get to it.
Kathy

[elgayna]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'd')on't worry too much Ruby, alot of our fellow posters here are armageddon-horny (any Jehovah Witnesses here?) but that's really not going to happen,

Bas