[Graeme]

Dangerous climate change: Myths and reality

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ew would disagree that the world should avoid "dangerous" (or unsafe) climate warming, but what does that term mean? What does climate safety mean? Is climate change already dangerous? Are greenhouse gas levels already too high? This report surveys some recent developments in climate science knowledge as a way of discerning the gaps between myth and reality in climate policy-making.

Scientific and political reticence

Amongst advocates for substantial action on climate warming, there is a presumption of agreement on the core climate science knowledge that underlies policy-making, even though differences exist in campaign strategy.

But the boundaries between science and politics have become blurred in framing both the problem and the solutions. Amongst advocates, advisors and policy-makers there are very different levels of understandings of the core climate science knowledge, how it is changing, what constitutes "danger", what needs to be done, and at what pace.



Myth 1: Climate change is not yet dangerous

In 2008 John Holdren, who was then senior advisor to President Barack Obama on science and technology issues, told the Eighth Annual John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture on Science and the Environment: "… the (climate) disruption and its impacts are now growing much more rapidly than almost anybody expected even a few years ago. The result of that, in my view, is that the world is already experiencing ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system’ " (emphasis added) (Holdren, 2008).

“Dangerous” climate changed is broadly characterised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the “burning embers” diagram as including five “reasons for concern”: risk to unique and threatened systems; risk of extreme weather events; distribution of impacts; aggregate (total economic and ecological) impacts; and risk of large-scale discontinuities (that is, abrupt transitions or “tipping points”). See Figure 1.

From this perspective, tipping points have already been passed, at less than 1°C of warming, for:

The loss of the Amundsen Sea West Antarctic glaciers, and 1–4 metres of sea level rise (Rignot, Mouginot et al., 2014; Joughin, Smith et al., 2014). Dr Malte Meinshausen, advisor to the German government and one of the architects of the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathways, calls the evidence published this year of "unstoppable" (Rignot, 2014) deglaciation in West Antarctica "a game changer", and a "tipping point that none of us thought would pass so quickly", noting now we are "committed already to a change in coastlines that is unprecedented for us humans" (Breakthrough, 2014).

The loss of Arctic sea-ice in summer (Duarte, Lenton et al., 2012; Maslowski, Kinney et al., 2012), which will hasten regional warming, the mobilization of frozen carbon stores, and the deglaciation of Greenland.

Numerous ecosystems, which are already severely degraded or in the process of being lost, including the Arctic (Wolf, 2010). In the Arctic, the rate of climate change is now faster than ecosystems can adapt to naturally, and the fate of many Arctic marine ecosystems is clearly connected to that of the sea ice (Duarte, Lenton et al., 2012). In May 2008, Dr Neil Hamilton, who was then director of Arctic programmes for WWF, told a stunned audience (of which I was a member) at the Academy of Science in Canberra that WWF was not trying to preserve the Arctic ecosystem because “it was no longer possible to do so”.

[americandream]

Personally, I don't think anyone knows for sure as the climate is a complex mix of many elements. However, the core principle is that it is a system subject to shifts dependent on the concentrations of these elements. The current concentrations which are human friendly emerged around a particular set of terrestrial agents. This set is being and continues to be changed to a new dynamic as we develop and alter them. Our activities are exponential, being global and based around infinity, ie capitalism. On that basis, I reckon climate change is pretty much a done deal unless we quickly desist from expanding capitalism and shift to something that ends all consumerism, business and related toxicities, like yesterday. We need not abandon modernity, but its use in capitalism will take us one way, and that is to a collective grave.

[SILENTTODD]

The extreme (scary) or "accurate" version of this discussion is held by former University of Arizona professor Guy McPherson (guymcpherson.com).

Those of you who don't know who this guy is be prepared for a scary ride. He predicts, due to global warming, the extinction, of Homo Sapiens by around 2030.

He continues to follow current scientific journals and sees only support of his point of view.

At 59 I am not terrified by this prognosis, but I grieve for my son's (33) generation.

[Paulo1]

While I certainly agree with climate change, I am quite sure humans will still be around after 2030 and 2130, and that is taking into account the proliferation of wars and upheaval and WMD. The problem with such drastic predictions is the effect it has on the mainstream of society accepting CC at all. I can see it now, "see, they (whoever they might be), said we would be extinct in 2030 and here I am filling up at the fricking gas station. What a bunch of crap". It is the other side of the deniers.

There is change baked into the cake for sure, but there are certainly both good and bad unforseen feedbacks that will also occur. With the increase of Rosby Waves, (what do they call them now? Polar Vortex? oooh right out of the B movie title list) there will be areas of drastic cooling and perhaps even huge cold events prompting warnings of new and rapid ice formation...for awhile. If the Gulf Steam slows, which it probably will, Europe will be hit hard.

I can't really see much being done until Chinese and NA cities start to really see some destruction from flooding and wind....many Katrinas if you will. Until then, BAU and folks need jobs and are barely getting by. Of course for those not getting by they will migrate elsewhere and no fences or border guards on earth will be able to stop it.

As an aside, I have researched putting in a solar powered water transfer system to keep a cistern full from a deepened pond. The purpose is for watering some remote gardens. Because of the site requirements the system will cost upwards of $1500.00, with me doing all work and installation. Or, I can buy a brand new honda powered water pump for less than 1/2 that. I will probably use 2 gallons of 80/87 per summer to keep the cisterns full. Guess which one I will be getting?


regards...Paulo

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Paulo1', 'W')hile I certainly agree with climate change, I am quite sure humans will still be around after 2030 and 2130, and that is taking into account the proliferation of wars and upheaval and WMD. The problem with such drastic predictions is the effect it has on the mainstream of society accepting CC at all. I can see it now, "see, they (whoever they might be), said we would be extinct in 2030 and here I am filling up at the fricking gas station. What a bunch of crap". It is the other side of the deniers.

There is change baked into the cake for sure, but there are certainly both good and bad unforseen feedbacks that will also occur. With the increase of Rosby Waves, (what do they call them now? Polar Vortex? oooh right out of the B movie title list) there will be areas of drastic cooling and perhaps even huge cold events prompting warnings of new and rapid ice formation...for awhile. If the Gulf Steam slows, which it probably will, Europe will be hit hard.

I can't really see much being done until Chinese and NA cities start to really see some destruction from flooding and wind....many Katrinas if you will. Until then, BAU and folks need jobs and are barely getting by. Of course for those not getting by they will migrate elsewhere and no fences or border guards on earth will be able to stop it.

As an aside, I have researched putting in a solar powered water transfer system to keep a cistern full from a deepened pond. The purpose is for watering some remote gardens. Because of the site requirements the system will cost upwards of $1500.00, with me doing all work and installation. Or, I can buy a brand new honda powered water pump for less than 1/2 that. I will probably use 2 gallons of 80/87 per summer to keep the cisterns full. Guess which one I will be getting?


regards...Paulo

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'T')he extreme (scary) or "accurate" version of this discussion is held by former University of Arizona professor Guy McPherson (guymcpherson.com).

Those of you who don't know who this guy is be prepared for a scary ride. He predicts, due to global warming, the extinction, of Homo Sapiens by around 2030.

He continues to follow current scientific journals and sees only support of his point of view.

At 59 I am not terrified by this prognosis, but I grieve for my son's (33) generation.

[americandream]

This reply is aimed at everyone but Graeme whom I have pretty much given up on as being at the height of subjective folly.

As regards the precise dates for the earth's climate shift, if anyone of us could predict that with any certainty, then you are advised to try next weeks lottery. However, the risk of sudden climate change is increasingly with us UNLESS we abandon capitalism, business and all that entails in the matter of infinite growth (you can couch this in any number of delusions....closed loop infinite growth, circular infinite growth, even infinite growth blessed by the Pope himself or the Dalai lama, depending on your preference), we are raising the stakes, minute by minute irrespective of what the talking heads may say.

A finely tuned planet wide life support system up against day by day growth in consumerism and all that involves (which even the stupidest should be aware of...just take a look around you), even were the light bulbs and food blenders of the world to be powered by solar panels, it does not take much to determine which will take precedence.

We are playing Russian roulette as long as we hang on to capitalism in any shape or form.

[Graeme]

The problem we have isn't with capitalism per se but with an extremely economically and politically powerful sector within that system. I am advocating green capitalism which is a different beast but this has to be well regulated to eliminate the greed of big corporates like FF conglomerates. This green utopia is far better than anarchism or Marxism. If we don't regulate FF companies then we face dangerous climate change.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'T')he problem we have isn't with capitalism per se but with an extremely economically and politically powerful sector within that system. I am advocating green capitalism which is a different beast but this has to be well regulated to eliminate the greed of big corporates like FF conglomerates. This green utopia is far better than anarchism or Marxism. If we don't regulate FF companies then we face dangerous climate change.

[Graeme]

If you want to advocate material dialecticism, do so in a different thread and forum (economics?). This thread is about dangerous climate change.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'I')f you want to advocate material dialecticism, do so in a different thread and forum (economics?). This thread is about dangerous climate change.

[Graeme]

As I said, this is the wrong thread. Please explain in a different thread how Marxism is going to save us all.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'I')f you want to advocate material dialecticism, do so in a different thread and forum (economics?). This thread is about dangerous climate change.

[Graeme]

Keith, If we are going to ignore economics in this thread, then please tell me and everyone else how are we going to stop dangerous climate change?

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'K')eith, If we are going to ignore economics in this thread, then please tell me and everyone else how are we going to stop dangerous climate change?

[Graeme]

Please read this partial list of regulations copied from page 13 in the PDF, which you can download from the OP.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t the risk of being either shot down for absence of detail or deliberately quoted out of context, a provisional and partial list of low-carbon regulations offers a flavour of what such an iterative de-carbonisation agenda may include:

• Strict energy/emission standards for appliances with a clear long-term market signal of the amount
by which the standards would annually tighten; e.g. 100gCO2/km for all new cars commencing 2015
and reducing at 10% each year through to 2030

• Strict energy supply standards; e.g. for electricity 350gCO2/kWh as the mean emissions level of a
suppliers’ portfolio of power stations; tightened at ~10% p.a.

• A programme of rolling out stringent energy/emission standards for industry equipment

• Stringent minimum efficiency standards for all properties for sale or rent

• World leading low-energy standards for all new-build houses, offices etc.

• Moratorium on airport expansion

• Technological and operational standards for shipping operating in UK waters

• A suite of iterative mechanisms to counter, or at least alleviate, issues of rebound, this may include
price mechanisms, progressive metering tariffs, etc.

• Revisit the viability of Personal Carbon Trading as a mechanism for improving societal engagement
in non-marginal change

• Appoint a senior minister with the principal responsibility for maintaining an equitable transition to a low-carbon society.”

[americandream]

It wont work and will just take another Reagan or Thatcher to return capitalists to full BAU.

[Graeme]

This information is now in the public domain. As more and more people realize that such draft regulations exist and see with their own eyes the deterioration of the environment then they will put increasing pressure on our business and political leaders to adopt such policies and ensure that they are accountable for their actions or lack thereof.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'K')eith, If we are going to ignore economics in this thread, then please tell me and everyone else how are we going to stop dangerous climate change?

[Graeme]

Sorry Keith. I was a bit harsh. BTW, I really appreciate your comments on this board; they have been very helpful.

To a large extent, there are already two threads on such a topic: IEA World Investment Outlook 2014 and Renewable Energy and Economic Growth threads. I mentioned it here because I was responding to AD's comments.

If the above-mentioned regulations were actually implemented, then we would go a long way to preventing GW adverse effects. They include economic aspects of climate change prevention like price mechanisms and carbon trading. Come to think of it, I will start one tomorrow because there isn't one. Thanks.