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THE James H Kunstler Thread pt 4

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby Sixstrings » Tue 08 Jul 2014, 16:21:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'K')unstler is right. The long swim trunks and baggy long shorts look like clown clothes. And the oversized untied shoes look like clown shoes. And the baggy droopy hats look like clown hats. :)

Image


Oh brother, is that stuff coming back in style again?

I remember that from the '90s. Huge oversized tshirts, shorts like that. We need to recycle the '70s again, instead:

Image

Or, maybe we are in collapse -- was there a "2000s" style? I can't seem to think of any. Now we're halfway into this decade, and still no new style. '50s had their styles, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, then it just stopped. What happened? Peak fashion?

Ok, I guess there's hipsters but that's just rummaging the consignment store of all the previous decades, mixmatching, wearing some glasses and growing a beard. And they're a bit like yuppies with their foodie and wine stuff, but the yuppies had jobs while hipsters have trust funds.

And by the way, the baggy urban styles come out of prison culture. Like sagging pants, that's from oversized prison uniforms that never fit right and sag down.
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby PrestonSturges » Wed 09 Jul 2014, 01:17:51

GF said she liked one of my very old cotton casual shirts, and with my fingertips I tore it to pieces like it was a wet paper towel. I said "See? My clothes are rotting off my back! Bring me back some shirts from Goodwill!" and she brought an arm load of nice casual shirts. The next week we were at the mall and the intentionally faded fabric of the $50 casual shirts looked older than the ones she'd brought from Goodwill.
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby PrestonSturges » Wed 09 Jul 2014, 02:26:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')Getting on and off flights the other week it kind of struck me as well just how slovenly the bulk of the passengers looked. Not, neat casual, but more like Walmart shoppers. The kind so many web sites make fun of.

Well airplanes used to be a lot nicer also! Now the seats are tiny and often as shabby as old bus.
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby Strummer » Wed 09 Jul 2014, 03:19:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')nd by the way, the baggy urban styles come out of prison culture. Like sagging pants, that's from oversized prison uniforms that never fit right and sag down.


The "land of the free" USA has the biggest part of its population in prisons, more than any other country on the planet, so it shouldn't be surprising. You're a nation of criminals and your fashion simply reflects that.
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby Lore » Wed 09 Jul 2014, 08:21:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')Getting on and off flights the other week it kind of struck me as well just how slovenly the bulk of the passengers looked. Not, neat casual, but more like Walmart shoppers. The kind so many web sites make fun of.

Well airplanes used to be a lot nicer also! Now the seats are tiny and often as shabby as old bus.


Maybe the airlines figured it out. If the people don't care about themselves why should they.
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby Outsailing » Wed 09 Jul 2014, 19:02:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')nd by the way, the baggy urban styles come out of prison culture. Like sagging pants, that's from oversized prison uniforms that never fit right and sag down.


The "land of the free" USA has the biggest part of its population in prisons, more than any other country on the planet, so it shouldn't be surprising. You're a nation of criminals and your fashion simply reflects that.
a nation wi

We're a nation with a high percentage of dopers, who then end up in jail because...we aren't happy with dopers.

So sure, "criminals" in a way...other countries would have similar issues if they criminalized petty stuff.

Our fashions suck just because they suck, children imitating European styles or something.
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby dinopello » Wed 09 Jul 2014, 19:17:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')nd by the way, the baggy urban styles come out of prison culture. Like sagging pants, that's from oversized prison uniforms that never fit right and sag down.


The "land of the free" USA has the biggest part of its population in prisons, more than any other country on the planet, so it shouldn't be surprising. You're a nation of criminals and your fashion simply reflects that.


Whatever, baggy clothes are so out in urban culture. It's all about the skinny jeans now

Image

This guy doesn't want his son in those skinny jeans!
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby Sixstrings » Wed 09 Jul 2014, 19:17:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', 'T')he "land of the free" USA has the biggest part of its population in prisons, more than any other country on the planet, so it shouldn't be surprising. You're a nation of criminals and your fashion simply reflects that.


The high incarceration levels are mostly for drug crime. And then people get locked into the system like a cycle. Someone getting in trouble from drugs isn't likely to meet probation requirements and show up for the PO officer appointments, and get a job, so back to jail they go.

Then it becomes self-sustaining and generational -- if dad was in jail and your uncles too, then that's likely to be your lifestyle too.

Really there's a lot of damage done putting people in prison, if they aren't violent, just starting them down that path. Prison is like a university for crime so what good does that do.

OTOH.. keeping 3 strikes violent offenders locked up has helped.. it dramatically reduced street crime over these last 20+ years.

I think things are starting to change a bit -- cannabis is going legal, for example. But I am ALL FOR 3 strikes type of laws, don't tolerate this crap people using guns and robbing people, off to jail they go, if they've done it 3 times then screw it they deserve to be put away a long time for crying out loud. Society needs protected from them, and it has worked.

So yeah Strumm we have problems over here, systemic ghetto problems and you want to know something? It's from lack of jobs and income inequality and that caused breakdown of the family. And Russia has the same darn problem.

Russia has all its problems too -- drugs, mafia, massive blatant gov corruption that we do not have, hackers.

I don't know the numbers, but I suspect common street crime isn't bad in Russia. They've got a more conservative culture. It's a bit further back in time, culturally, more like a 1960s America.

But then, in Russia, you hear about some really horrible gay bashing and awful things and intolerance and these Russian facebook sites where people trade videos of taunting and assaulting gay people. <-- that stuff is just wild to me, forget about law where is the common decency and revulsion at violence like that? That doesn't happen over here, you can't just put up a video of assaulting someone -- for any reason -- and that's just "okay."

Russia overall has the "tough guy" thing, I think I've read there's a lot more abuse of women and domestic violence over there -- Russia just doesn't have the social system infrastructure to step in on things like that. It's like the US back before the 1980s, when a man could beat his wife and nobody does anything about it.

Conversely, because Russia doesn't have the criminal justice system we do with all the social workers and probation system, that's why Russia doesn't have so many prisoners.

Anyhow, Strumm -- don't dislike me over my Russia posts, please, the truth is that both places have problems. And Russia's a great place other than they need to be a little more liberal and get some liberal attitudes where you can't just post a video beating the sh*t out of somebody and that's alright. And would be nice if Russia got some liberals -- a place needs both, conservatives and liberals.

Democracy and full human rights and rule of law will come to Russia, one day, because freedom always wins, eventually.

It'll come to the middle east too, eventually, and China and everywhere. This is just being modern, it's just progress. Will take more time in some places than others.
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby Sixstrings » Wed 09 Jul 2014, 19:44:17

What Russia REALLY needs is a WOMENS rights movement. Our conservatives used to joke about "feminazis," but you know what?

A man could grab his wife by the arm and slap her around back in the 1950s and before, and his kids too, and people would look the other way.

There were no "domestic violence" calls, decades ago. That was considered a family matter, how a husband treats his wife and kids.

When Russia gets a womens' equality and rights movement going, then that will temper all this macho stuff in Russian culture.

Remember that pussy riot video? That cossack just pulled out a horsewhip and whipped that girl right in the street, under the Sochi sign.

Female equality isn't so bad, by the way. I'm a man. But I'm objective -- more women in government and corporate management has been a good thing. It's we men that start wars, not women. So I'm okay this has happened over here, full equality for women, and handing the reigns over to them more and more.

And I do get why conservatives prefer a patriarchal culture, where we men are just in charge 100% in the home and everywhere, but Strumm, America used to be that way and there was untold abuse that went on. Women just stifled. And more common abuse, with no police or gov to do anything about it. There are pluses to conservative patriarchal culture, but overall in the aggregate, I think a world with womens' eqaulity is for the best -- and it's the right thing anyway, nobody has a right to step on others' rights just because he's a white male and the other is a woman or a minority or whatever.

We are all equal, that's the best way, now we just need to get Russia and the US onto a track of living wages for the working and middle class and we both need to cut down on the oligarch stuff. :-D
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby Sixstrings » Wed 09 Jul 2014, 20:38:10

And another thing, about fashion, by and large Russians and Americans both dress like slobs. (from what I see in pics from Russia anyhow)

It's ok. Who wants to be so snooty like the French anyway.

I went way off topic in my response to Strumm, but an interesting note about American "ghetto" street style: American culture is so influential, that people in the rest of the world actually adopt the ghetto look too, even when they aren't poor. :lol:

Personally I don't care about fashion. It's hot where I live. I wear tshirts and shorts and tennis shoes. I do like suits, but it's been many years that my employment required wearing one.

If I got on a plane though, or doing business, I wouldn't be dressing walmart style. I'd have some dockers and a polo shirt on.

I don't know, do we really care about this topic? Fashion? Style just changes. Times change. Even billionaire tech entrepreneurs hate suits. Our culture is less formal now than in decades past. Does it really matter? Our brains can only handle so much. We're all linked into online now, forums and facebook and online personas and that's expression enough for our narcissism so who needs spiffy clothes.

Actually I think that's part of it there, who is it Zuckerberg that just has a closet with the same shirts and hoodies? And Steve jobs wore the same jeans and turtleneck. Elon Musk is like that, though he knows how to wear a suit but he just prefers not to. People have too much going on these days, your brain can only do so much.
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby AgentR11 » Thu 10 Jul 2014, 03:12:14

For 6.. even a post on saggy pants and floppy shoes has to be turned into a commentary on Russia....
Really. Obsession much?
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby Strummer » Thu 10 Jul 2014, 04:21:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'O')TOH.. keeping 3 strikes violent offenders locked up has helped.. it dramatically reduced street crime over these last 20+ years.


No it didn't. That decline of violent crime is happening everywhere around the world, regardless of local legislation, and is most likely caused by the removal of lead from gasoline:

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/ ... k-gasoline
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby Ibon » Thu 10 Jul 2014, 08:17:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'O')TOH.. keeping 3 strikes violent offenders locked up has helped.. it dramatically reduced street crime over these last 20+ years.


No it didn't. That decline of violent crime is happening everywhere around the world, regardless of local legislation, and is most likely caused by the removal of lead from gasoline:

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/ ... k-gasoline


That was interesting. Thanks for posting that. Not only because the body of evidence is persuasive but also because this is one of those examples of an explanation that comes from outside the narratives that have been hammered over and over again as fact.
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby Sixstrings » Thu 10 Jul 2014, 16:22:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'F')or 6.. even a post on saggy pants and floppy shoes has to be turned into a commentary on Russia....
Really. Obsession much?


Strummer's an expat in Russia, he threw it out there that America is just a nation of criminals blah blah..

So I don't respond to that?

And point out the OTHER side, that Russia has horrible drug addiction in its hinterland, and mafias, and hackers, and honest-to-goodness criminals right in the government.

Sorry Agent, I'll never just sit here while Canadians and Australians and Kiwis and Russian peanut gallery start in with their anti-Americanism.

"You're a nation of criminals" is not a nice way to start a discussion.

Agent, just posting "you're a nation of criminals" was rude and inflammatory. That kind of statement isn't looking for a real conversation, it's someone with a bias and agenda so I addressed his bias and where he's coming from. I was not rude in my posts.

And anyway, talking about crime and the prison industrial complex is more interesting than swimming trunks.

Okay forget Russia, Russia is just a patriarchal religious conservative culture. There are pluses and minuses to that. We can do a comparison with muslim cultures, who are even more conservative and the "man is in charge."

Different systems, different ways of handling things: more government in the West, vs. a Russia or middle east (and maybe Asia) where it's the family handling things. They have fewer prisoners because things don't get reported and prosecuted as much, that's why.

It's actually an open question which is better, overall. In a conservative religious culture, every man is king of his castle and handling his family. There's no nanny state or a huge parole officer system, there are no "domestic violence" calls, it's handled in the family.

That results in strong families and some good things, but then you also get the domestic violence and abuse of women and abusing minorities -- as individuals take morality enforcement (as they see it) into their own hands.

A Russia or middle east or parts of Asia and the 3rd world don't have masses of people in prison, but, it's just that government isn't so involved that's why. Drug crimes are perhaps less prosecuted, in Russia. I don't know for sure, these are interesting questions.

For example, a place like Saudi Arabia is very oppressive but it's just a different culture, so different to us it may as well be another planet. There are lots of things a Westerner wouldn't approve of looking at that place, but, they have low crime anyway. And they actually do have very strong family life, and close families, that we've lost in the West. Overall our way is best though -- more freedom for every individual, especially women, and more progress and innovation with all this cultural freedom we have.

We're talking about crime here and different ways of handling that. It's not really about Russia, they do things a different way, Saudis do things a different way, and Norwegians do things differently than we on the other side of the spectrum -- with a lot more rehabilitation and such.
Last edited by Sixstrings on Thu 10 Jul 2014, 16:53:58, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby Sixstrings » Thu 10 Jul 2014, 16:50:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'T')hat was interesting. Thanks for posting that. Not only because the body of evidence is persuasive but also because this is one of those examples of an explanation that comes from outside the narratives that have been hammered over and over again as fact.


It seems a bit of a stretch that lead in gasoline was causing criminality.

It's an interesting question WHY crime is down -- is it really down worldwide? I didn't know that.

In the US, some point to the 3 strikes laws / locking up drug offenders that are likely to get in trouble generally.

It's really grim, but some point to abortion -- so many unwanted children have been prevented from coming into the world, and otherwise it's unwanted children that often grow up to become criminals.

So now Strumm says it's because the lead is out of the gas.

Or others say, it's globalization and higher living standards. Maybe everyone is too busy smoking dope now and playing xbox / on Facebook / mobile phone to get mixed up in crime.

I don't know what's going on and what the reason is, but, it's true that crime has been going down ever since the 90s at least.

I sure wouldn't be in favor of removing 3 strikes laws though, as some kind of experiment.
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Re: Kunstler: Swimming Trunks are Too Long

Postby Sixstrings » Thu 10 Jul 2014, 17:24:38

Okay Agent you're right, I'll take it as an intervention.

I should have stopped that post at the point of talking about the revolving door with the prison and parole system over here, and not gone into Russia.

It gets annoying for me in general though that everyone always has a comment about the US, but you won't hear an Australian ever talking about China, and Russia's got itself lined up with all the anti-American people -- and actively spreading that with state funded RT and an intentional propaganda campaign that always makes the US look bad but says nothing about Russia, and you've got that massive "putin army of bloggers" campaign on the web that sounds like a conspiracy theory yet there's one mainstream article about it after another. (I think it's organic and not state-controlled)

But anyhow I guess it's Voice of America's job to counter RT and not mine.

And this forum is not the place for it.

So you are right Agent, I'll drop it about Russia.

I would just ask that those of you that are so kneejerk anti-American, try to have a more nuanced view.
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Kunstler: Forecast 2015 — Life in the Breakdown Lane

Postby GHung » Mon 05 Jan 2015, 15:10:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')Don’t look back — something might be gaining on you,” Satchel Paige famously warned. For connoisseurs of civilizational collapse, 2014 was merely annoying, a continued pile-up of over-investments in complexity with mounting diminishing returns, metastasizing fragility, and no satisfying resolution. So we enter 2015 with greater tensions than ever before and therefore the likelihood that the inevitable breakdown will release more destructive energy and be that much harder to recover from.

I don’t know how anyone can trust the statistical bullshit emanating from our government reporting agencies, or the legacy news organizations that report them. Yet the meme has remained firmly fixed in the popular imagination: the US economy has recovered! GDP grows 5 percent in Q3! Manufacturing renaissance! Energy independence! Cleanest shirt in the laundry basket! Best-looking house in a bad neighborhood…!

¡No hay problema!

This is simply the power of wishful thinking on display. No one — with the exception of a few “doomer” cranks — wants to believe that industrial civilization is in trouble deep. The staggering credulity this represents would be a fascinating case study in itself if there were not so many other things that demand our attention right now. Let’s just write this phenomenon off as the diminishing returns of career log-rolling in politics, finance, media, and academia. All the professional “thought-leaders” pitch in to support the “hologram” of eternal progress that issues their paychecks and bonuses. This culture of pervasive racketeering that we’ve engineered has made us obtuse. The particular brand of stupidity on display also points to another signal vanity of our time: the conviction that if you measure things enough, you can control them.

I’m of the view that the measurers only pretend to measure and can only pretend to control things, especially in the most fragile of the systems that we depend on for running all the other systems of techno-industrial economic life: finance. The pretense has endured a lot longer than many of us had expected. The legerdemain employed by banking officials and their handmaidens was greatly augmented by the sheer wish that fragility (i.e. risk) had been successfully and permanently banished from the universe. That “magic” at least sustained a universal faith in currencies until the middle of last year when so many monies went south — except the dollar, levitating on blowback of the deflationary wind flattening everything else.

All this unreality in money and markets should be expected in the conditions just preceding systemic collapse of an entire trans-national industrial civilization, just as one should expect societies to construct their most grandiose monuments to themselves shortly before collapse. The Mayans R us. One year, they were cavorting bloodthirstily atop their garish painted pyramids and a generation later the jungle was stealing back over the temple steps and the population was a tenth of its former size. The same thing is going to happen to us, except there will be a hell of a lot more worthless, toxic debris left on the landscape.

Of course, even that is a more long-term projection than the exercise at hand calls for, viz., the forecast for measly little 2015. So without further throat-clearing, permit me to break it down for you:

http://kunstler.com/forecast/forecast-2015/
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Re: Kunstler: Forecast 2015 — Life in the Breakdown Lane

Postby Loki » Tue 06 Jan 2015, 00:58:50

I love me some Kunstler rants, and this was a good one. But he's not very good with his forecasts. He wants the Great Decline to be on a much faster timetable than it is. Needs more patience.

His predictions about the short-term future of global politics were less than persuasive. Citing Dmitri Orlov's blog on Ukraine and Russia? LOL. Might as well quote Pravda, it'd be more fair and balanced. Orlov is an idiot.

Also don't think there will be some grand conspiracy to chop the American economy down by China et al. Russia may try (and fail, as usual), but China has no reason whatsoever to go out of its way to undermine the US, which is their largest trading partner and the only major mature economy that isn't spiraling down the deflationary black hole (yet).

Russia is not as likely to shake off the sanctions and low oil prices as he thinks. He's obviously reading too much Orlov.

He also vastly overestimates the power of ISIS. I'd venture to guess we're at Peak ISIS and it'll be downhill from here.

"Open ethnic warfare breaks out in France, Britain, the Netherlands, Sweden." LOL. Highly unlikely. I do agree with him that the Eurozone economy will continue to float tits up.

Surprised he didn't say more about Ebola. The Archdruid alluded to it being one of the catalysts that leads us into the New Dark Age. Of course it didn't even amount to a mild case of the sniffles at a global scale.

And India occupying Pakistan? LOL. No.

This hits a little closer to home:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or one who has been a close observer of the US socio-political-economic scene since the Kennedy era, the nation has gotten itself into a pretty sorry state. The pervasive racketeering that poisons American life from the money-in-politics farce, to the shameless, chiseling medical-pharma cabal, to the SNAP-card and disability rights empire of grift, to the college loan swindle, to the disgusting security state apparatus, to the corporate tyranny of local life and economies, to the delusional techno-narcissism of the media, to the despotic and puerile gender preoccupations of academia — all of it adds up to a society that cares as little for the present as it does for the future. And that’s aside from the pathetic digital device addiction of the generation coming up, and the sheer sordid behavior of the tattooed, drug-saturated, pornified masses of adults now forever foreclosed from a purposeful existence or a decent standard of living.


Spot on there.

Not so sure about his domestic predictions:

Peak shale oil, maybe.

Continued "race riots," maybe, but not at the level he predicts.

"Anti-immigration sentiment in Europe spreads to the US"---one could only hope, but I doubt it.

Collapse of Bank of America and Citibank---not likely this year.

"Hillary is loudly booed and hectored at campaign stops as 'a tool of Wall Street.'"---if only, but exceptionally improbable. He vastly underestimates the shrillness and hypocrisy of the gonad wing of the Democratic Party.

This was a good one, and very likely will come true:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')efore mid-century, Las Vegas will be as desolate as Egypt’s Valley of the Kings. Try to imagine the money that went into building all that stupid shit in the desert.
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Re: Kunstler: Forecast 2015 — Life in the Breakdown Lane

Postby GHung » Tue 06 Jan 2015, 09:56:59

Loki: "He also vastly overestimates the power of ISIS. I'd venture to guess we're at Peak ISIS and it'll be downhill from here."

ISIS/IS/ISIL.... whatever,, isn't an army; it's not just a group of militants or terrorists, clearly not what you seem to reduce it to. ISIS is an idea whose time may have come. It is millions of unemployed, underserved, marginalised youth with no loyalty to one country; dispersed throughout many. Weather or not this idea has legs has yet to be seen, but if you study the history of this kind of movement, it has the potential to redraw the map of the most oil-important region on the planet.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alastair- ... 48744.html

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