[ROCKMAN]

Max - Actually many tens of millions have died since 2008. And I think it's a safe bet most of the rest of us will die in time.

[AirlinePilot]

Nobody gets held accountable in the media anymore for what they print. The headline is almost anyone ever reads anymore. folks barely just skim through the articles.

Folks I know...even the intelligent ones.....can never seem to figure out the difference between what crude oil and total liquids mean. Since the classifications changed years ago, at least in the reporting arena, it is the most important piece of information to understand. Its also the most abused and manipulated number by everyone.

I try to point out the difference, but because all I am is an airline pilot, and not a trained geologist, or oilfield engineer, I obviously have zero credibility, so I never get anywhere with the explanations and why articles like this are INTENTIONALLY misleading.

[Byron Walter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'B')yron - "I became a 'peaker' back around 1999". You're a tad late but welcome to the party anyway. LOL. I was tutored on the harsh reality of PO in 1975 by my first mentor at Mobil Oil...

[ROCKMAN]

In a while, crocodile... LOL. I agree. The vast majority of folks don't realize the leverage fossil fuels have provided them. If you're old enough maybe you remember cutting the grass with a manual rotary mower. Perhaps if we banned gasoline powered mowers folks would better appreciate the gift of hydrocarbons. But in time many will begin to learn that lesson one way or the other. Some already have.

[Byron Walter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I')n a while, crocodile... LOL. I agree. The vast majority of folks don't realize the leverage fossil fuels have provided them. If you're old enough maybe you remember cutting the grass with a manual rotary mower. Perhaps if we banned gasoline powered mowers folks would better appreciate the gift of hydrocarbons. But in time many will begin to learn that lesson one way or the other. Some already have.

[ROCKMAN]

That's OK AP: being a petroleum geologist with 4 decades of experience doesn't give me much credibility with some either. As has been said many times: no one is more blind then he who REFUSES to see. And thus some readily latch on to any belief system that conforms with what they disparity hope is true.

As a general rule I'll provide as much insight as I can to those who seek understanding. But I will not suffer fools for very long.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 's')ix - Before the shale boom you were paying 1/3 the cost to fill your gas tank up. So you're happier now producing the shales since doing so required you to pay 3X as much for oil? I'm pretty sure you and most here understand that if you weren't paying so much for gasoline we wouldn't be drilling the shales. Or dies someone believe the shale boom would continue with $35/bbl oil?

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '[')b]PO argument: yes we are producing more oil- but look at the costs!
Counterargument: oil prices have been stable the last 3 years and are lower than $140 a barrel over 6 years ago- besides which, given what oil can do and how concentrated and energy source it is- it is still a killer bargain at this price. And BTW- inflation has raised the price of many things- why do you still expect oil to be $30 a barrel?

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('forbin', 'j')ust remember PO is the peak of production , nothing more , nothing less, running out is something else
and you can speculate as much as you like with the rest of them - good luck

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I')f you're old enough maybe you remember cutting the grass with a manual rotary mower. Perhaps if we banned gasoline powered mowers folks would better appreciate the gift of hydrocarbons.

[farmlad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') became a 'peaker' back around 1999 after reading two opposing articles. One was the Economist article about the world being awash in oil and suggesting that the price could even drop to five bucks a barrel. The other was the Sci America article about global production peaking in the near future. Both articles proved incorrect but I believed that the Sci American article was on to something that I had never considered.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '[')b]Folks I know...even the intelligent ones.....can never seem to figure out the difference between what crude oil and total liquids mean. Since the classifications changed years ago, at least in the reporting arena, it is the most important piece of information to understand. Its also the most abused and manipulated number by everyone.

[JV153]

Yes, the US also has the majority of the drilling rigs in the world. A large amount of fuel is used to provide the energy used for tight oil production , i.,e, drilling, road construction to wells, delivery of well casing materials and fracking material ( 1 million gallons per well?) to construct wells and remove produced oil. Roughly about 4-5000 heavy truck sorties per well over a wells lifetime, as per Statoil.

http://www.statoil.com/annualreport2012 ... htoil.aspx


As tight oil well drilling increases just to maintain production at current rates, the amount of external diesel fuel use just to do this will increase.
Walking rigs at least decrease the amount of fuel use sine assembly disassembly is reduced.

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll the comments in response to this news really hammer home that Peak Oilers
are not characterized mainly by the belief that we will run out of oil-
but the desire that we run out of oil.

[forbin]

Max , thats still WIP

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')Who could have ever predicted such a thing?

Or, things like 3d printers -- who could ever have thought that up, years ago. And next is 3d food printing. It's practically the Jetsons lately, just missing the flying cars and fusion power.

[Longtimber]

From the Bloomberg link the image is " Oil pumps stand at the Chevron Corp. Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California." Can't they find a LTO production image? 3800+ plus comments.

[ROCKMAN]

Six - And that brings us back to chicken vs egg dynamic: are oil prices stable thanks to shale production or is shale production stable thanks to high oil prices? So I'll ask the same simple question: if oil prices were to fall significantly for an extended period time would we still have as many rigs drilling the Bakken and EFS? I've yet to hear from a single person who believes the rig count wouldn't also drop significant. Which would guarantee, thanks to the high decline rates of fractured reservoirs, a significant drop in US oil production. Now take the opposite position: if the shale plays tap out because they reach their geologic limit would oil prices increase significantly? The first instinct would be to say yes. And this could lead to the assumption that those higher prices would make new unconventional sources more viable. But we've seen what much higher oil prices do to the US/global economies: recession which creates significant demand destruction just as it did in the 80's. And that decreases the price of oil which destroys much of the financial incentive to drill.

[AirlinePilot]

Six,

Il try to make this simple for you...Oil is Oil. You cant use a bunch of that "other stuff", meaning the part of what they call total liquids that ISNT OIL, for the big issue, which is transportation. Thats both commercial and private.

IT MATTERS significantly. It matters to economies and it matters to the oil producers/extractors/refiners. It means COSTS will keep going up for all of that as we move OFF the CRUDE PLATEAU.We may or may not be the largest total liquids producer but it doesnt really matter other than to soften the blow of the plateau and coming decline in Crude production.

The increases in "Not Oil" wont go on forever and right now they are MASKING the POD or the real effects of peaking/plateauing crude production. Its when we cant make up the difference in crude declines with all that "other stuff" that this will really get interesting.

When it comes to cost, I dont know about you..but Im seeing steadily ratcheting prices over the last 10 years, and while it seems we have leveled off the trend continues.

You are a boiling frog and you dont even know it Six!

[ROCKMAN]

Longtimber - Here's an excellent one: http://www.oilandgaslawyerblog.com/Frac ... 20Well.jpg. Better than a pump jack: shows all the pump trucks lined up to frac an EFS well. Maybe it's a copyright issue for them.