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OMG! Possible PO Scenario?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

OMG! Possible PO Scenario?

Unread postby turmoil » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 11:35:51

Price of oil hits the ceiling ($200-$500 a barrel). Everyone goes bankrupt!?!?!?!?!?!?! :lol: that would be great!!!! no more debt for anyone. By everyone i mean citizens that are already in debt, not governments (they will never be out of dept :roll:).

The economy tanks, jobs are lost and less and less money will be spent. Oil demand will fall, only the necessities (foods, weed, alcohol :lol:) will be bought because they are so expensive. Price of oil is $100 - $150 a barrel (anything higher doesn't make sense because demand has fallen). Everyone who is laid off searches for jobs but there are less and less because no one has money to buy anything, thus entire sectors (entertainment) are worthless (sorry no more movies-for now).

Enter ACTUAL 21st Century 8). New jobs are formed in the renewable energy sector because it's the only thing that investors will invest any money in, besides helping to support the farming industry (and really efficient refrigerators and other appliances. :shock: yes i know, i can't believe it either). Huge numbers of people are trained to work in the new world like in the mid 1900s when machines were taking over (thank Kennedy-yep saved your life twice, one dealing with your job and then dealing with those damned cuban missiles). Except this will happen much faster because of major shifts in priorities. Beef and other meats will be too expensive to consume the quanitites that are consumed now, so we will see a major demand drop there. Major jobs grow in the organic food industry because it's cheaper now that pesticides are more expensive.

Scenario summary: growth will remain the prominent economic model, it's the priorities that will change due to the mainstream realization that we are on the right side of the curve. Many people will not die, they will just be forced to consume a lot less and take part in the job growth in the booming sectors. All this works because there is indeed a lot of oil left, and the priorities will shift when the right side of the curve is visible.

:roll: yes, i know... too good to be true (or is it). There are plenty of gaps to be filled. I'd like to make a chart of all the things that will lose value and all the things that will gain value.

:shock: yes, and then it's onto more unrealistic things like moving planets away from aging suns, although we do indeed have plenty of time to deal with that.
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Unread postby Nano » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 15:03:13

I also think often about the possibility of your scenario. I'm trying to imagine how reduced wages (working in renewables will not pay well if millions of jobs are to be created) and increased prices (renewables will always remain very expensive, that expense filtering through the entire supply chain) might be made to coexist.

Consumption will falter: growth will falter. Basically, people will have to get along with the idea that there will be less 'stuff' available to them. Until they start getting the idea they might eventually have less 'food' or 'water' available too, there might be some acceptance of the new frugal life.

Perhaps though the gap between rich and poor will negate this scenario. That gap will widen as the rich can afford to stay rich, while the average family will impoverish, not to mention those already poor. A widening gap reduces the overal quality of life and may lead to revolution or civil war.

Disregarding 'peak oil' I believe that exponential population growth as per the last century must lead to overshoot and pullback. I expect that peak oil and climate change might cause that pullback sometime in the next decade or two. The question is how, when and where the pullback will manifest itself: malnourishment, disease, war, or a combination of factors?

Your scenario is essentially an example of a possible ending of population growth without pull-back. All positive outlooks on PO or climate change are. I guess in the end it depends upon the disposition of the populace. If the populace chooses to fight for survival by undertaking sustainable living then we might not have a pullback. But if the choice is for the status quo and competition over resources then pullback appears certain.
Last edited by Nano on Mon 20 Jun 2005, 18:21:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby jdmartin » Mon 20 Jun 2005, 16:54:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', '
')A widening gap reduces the overal quality of life and may lead to revolution or civil war.


This, I have thought for a number of years, is the real truth. Though I have also thought that Americans may have become too fat and lazy to care in numbers large enough to equal peasant revolt, ala France or Russia. But who knows? One thing is for sure - it will be interesting.
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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