[deconstructionist]

So i'm sitting on the train the other morning, and i glance over at the person sitting in the next row over, and she's reading an article in the Metro titled "Oil Gone," which in and of itself as a title is a horrible misrepresentation of the peak oil problem. but as i found when i flipped my own copy to said article, overall--the article was pretty good. Obviously with only a page of editorial and pictures and such it didn't really get too in-depth, but it was really pretty accurate and informative. I'm sure it was the first exposure many folks ever had to "peak oil," and for that purpose, it's not bad. it's not full of scare tactics and doomsday scenarios, like www.LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net --which was the first peak oil information that i ever saw.

let me break it down for you. and believe it or not, this is a bright and cheery outlook. you can check my numbers. they're correct. globally, we consume close to 82 million barrels of oil per day. that number gets higher and higher every year. and with a huge industrial and economic upsurge hapenning in China, expect it to grow even more rapidly. at peak operating capacity, we can "produce" about 84 million barrels of oil per day. we have extracted about half of the original 2.2 trillion barrels that were originally in the earth before we started extracting it in large quantites. so if you take what's left over, that's 40 years worth in the ground. plenty of time to get alternatives up and running, you'd think. yet over the life of an oil well, after half of the oil has been extracted, the maximum production of the well declines exponentially. recent technological improvements have allowed us to pump oil out of the wells at the same rate even after we've extracted half. so we've been able to maintain a longer period of maximum production. but still--there's only so much the world can pump out in a day, and we've reached the point where that number--maximum production--is never going to increase. at the same time, global demands will very soon be larger than global supply. remember the oil shocks of the 70s? well neither do I (i was born in '75) but i hear they sucked. and that was something like a couple of percentage points of oil shortage for a reletively short period of time. imagine that sort of economic unrest but over a longer period of time and getting worse and worse every year. unless we start to use LESS oil instead of more... well... soon we will have no choice. and it will start to happen as soon as supply outgrows demand--not in 40 years or so when what we are using mathmatically equals what we have left... how much can be produced in a given time compared to what our economy demands? when those numbers no longer match... well, we're kinda screwed.

the fact remains that while demand keeps going up and up, supply is not going to be physically able to match it for much longer. we have been discovering less and less new oil every year since the 70s. the maximum amount of oil that can be pumped out of the planet earth over a given peroid of time has reached its peak and it will NEVER increase, ever again. the 13 billion barrels recently opened for extraction in alaska? 13bil/82mil=159 days. america itself consumes about 20 million barrels per day. that 13 billion barrels that the "American Government, LLC" wants to destroy the arctic for? it's less than two years of oil for the US alone at our current rate of consumption. that seemingly HUGE amount of oil is a drop in the bucket. not to mention-- how much of that oil is going to be available on a daily basis? will the peak production of the new extraction make a dent in the supply vs. demand issue? not much of one...

think it's just about gasoline prices? what gets food from the farm to the store? trucks. what runs trucks? diesel. hmm... what fertilizes the crops? petrolium based fertilizers. what keeps the bugs off? petrolium based pesticides. what drives the tractor that plows the fields? petrolium... of course agricultural science has alternatives to petrolium based fuel (biodiesel) and fertilzers, but they're not widely used by large farms. anything plastic (your computer)? made from oil. where do you think natural gas comes from? it's largely a by-product of oil extraction. where do you think electricity comes from? natural gas, coal, very little nuclear, almost negligible wind/hyrdo and virtually no solar. our dependance on fossil fuels needs to stop now, or it will stop later without our consent.

the solution? EVERYONE needs to do what they can to consume less. walk/bike more, drive less. and i say this in full hypocricy because i have just received a gas guzzling used toyota 4 runner as a gift (which i do plan on trading in for a prius as soon as i can afford to pick up the payments)--drive more fuel effecient cars!! we also need to start getting more involved in local economies. stop shopping at the megastores and keep your business local. especially food--go to the farmer's market and support local argiculture. megastores use huge amounts of resources and funnel money spent in local communities into the coffers of businesses not located in the communities they serve. and their size allows them to outcompete and undersell local businesses and put local business owners at a disadvantage. oh but megastores employ so many local people!! most of the local employees who work at a megastore earn very low wages... we need to change our current system of agriculture and stop eating so much fast food. a huge majority of the amount of land currently devoted to agriculture is used for grazing land or feedstock for beef. the use of this land is highly energy intensive if the same amount of land were devoted to a mixture of organically grown veggies, grains, biodiesel crops (not soybeans, they're SO innefecient for biodiesel production), and free-range meat, we'd have more than enough food to go around and our oil consumption would decrease.

the biggest change we need to make? we need to overthrow corporate america. sorry, capitalism doesn't work over the long haul... the reason these other changes haven't started to happen is that for the time being, there are HUGE profits in oil and factory farms. and huge profits in other industries that are dependent on the availability of cheap fossil fuels. there are some very selfish and shortsighted people making some very bad decisions. and if you think i'm generalizing... there ARE individuals who make these decisions. i would say it to their faces if i was granted an audience... "Mr or Ms. CEO of whatever random company that put profits over people: your business practices are shortsighted. you're making huge profits and your workers may even being doing well, but your profits are not sustainable and your business practices are pushing our economy and our global resources to the limits of its extent to produce more profits for you. even in the face of this knowledge, you do nothing but endeavor to increase those profits ever higher while you still can. your greed is contributing to the downfall of our civilization. you disgust me."

i'm just happy to see some coverage in the mainstream media. the sooner people realize that we're going to have to make some changes and compromises to avoid a complete economic collapse the better. i know some very intelligent and worldly people who simply refuse to accept the facts and trust that the system will fix itself, because humans are really smart and determined to survive. well, many of us will survive. but the fact remains--a system that requires constant growth to prosper is not sustainable in a world with finite resources.

[spot5050]

What's your point?

[deconstructionist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spot5050', 'W')hat's your point?

[ejacob3]

You'll be the only one trying to tred water in freezing conditions while the the rest of the captitalist drones go down with the ship.

You suggestions to pull to geather and make change is novel but unrealistic.

Enjoy it while it is here and try to make the shock if you can through careful planning. After 20 years or so, a new system will evolve or just kiss your ass goodbye.

Don't waste your time fretting about peak oil.

[cat]

ejacob3 wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')on't waste your time fretting about peak oil.

[spudbuddy]

Good post, Andy.

A number of points (while perusing the disgruntled replies)
I'd like to think that people come here to talk shop, swap notes and ideas, and basically begin the process of becoming comfortable with the issue -
and I mean exactly that.

Hysterics and cynicism get us exactly nowhere.
In "The Long Emergency", Jim Kunstler ponders the dark side of post-modernist denial (including the fundamentalist tendencies rampant in his country) and I have to wonder about that myself.

However - It's easy enough to see that some tough legislation will be needed to turn the thing around.
(read: preparation - as any good ol' boy scout knows.)

We need time, people. Times buys research and development, to create an alternative plan.
Time buys a long slow gradual shift....far less painful than hitting the brick wall at 85mph. (I love that analogy!)

But you're absolutely right, about the corporate thing.
I don't want to hear Cheney or anyone else blathering on about America's right to preserve their "sacred" way of life. (say what?)
What is so sacred about living so wastefully?
I laugh at the idea of the youth of this nation blaming boomers...(they grabbed it all)...etc. etc.

Take a good look at corporate history and its development over the past 4 or 5 decades.
The restraints came off.
Capitalism is like a good attack dog on a leash (preferrably a short one!)
Nice big white fangs...a lot of damage there on the business end.
Like putting up a sign "Welcome weasles!" next to a chicken farm.
This has gone on for some time now...and we are seeing the results.

What's my point?
Simple comprehension and a few basic reading skills should deliver the punch:
The way we have used energy for the past 60 years really sucks, man.
We are a pathetic species if we can't see that, and make the necessary changes.
The economy has run on the basis of ramping up oil consumption - period.
Why else do you think anyone in America still considers an SUV a good thing? They sell for a lot of money, and burn a lot of fuel.
McMansions burn a lot of fuel....in home heating, and especially if they're located in 100 -degree-plus locations (read: Sun City Arizona).
Henry Miller's Air-Conditioned Nightmare.

Imagine: The same amount of energy used to heat and cool a lawyer foyer comprising the same square footage that a pre-WW2 family of four used to live in quite comfortably. (And it is ALL wasted space!)
The reason that corpo-bandits and their crony politicians are so reluctant to endorse any real change in the way we do things, is that our entire economy has been running on the proceeds from the creation of all this wastefulness.
One day not so long from now, they're all going to look like a bunch of sheep-faced rowdymen caught with a wallet full of maxed out credit cards, having to go home and face the missus after gambling away the kids' college funds at the racetrack.
And these are the ones running the show?

I mean: (with open eyes) take a good look around...a real good look - at what it is that we have created.
The golden holy society - partying like Romans...(hand me that fiddle, Nero).
Rant, you said?

Duh, gee...I dunno...my Wallyworld paycheck dribbles down to me from the debacle above, and what would I do without it?

A good economist who knows what they are about considers this dark time of job insecurity, not to mention the absolute waste of human endeavor that has been the legacy of corporate social takeover.
We are indeed a franchised nation.

Consider this: Fuel costs in 1962 consumed approx. 2.5% of a middle class income to service the family car.
In southern California, as I write...this percentage has climbed from 12 to 15%, and is chugging inexorably toward 20.
Something has to give.
(Status symbol of the 22nd century? A drive to Walmart.)

Personally, I wouldn't mind a train trip from NYC to Chicago (compared to the cost of jet fuel to move the same number of people...a savings in fuel of two thirds.
I wouldn't mind organic grown food replacing the McFood we now consume. (Cheez Doodles make good packing filler.)
I wouldn't mind cleaner air. (neither would those hundreds of thousands of Asthmatic kids out there.)
I wouldn't mind a restructured public domain (say what?) um...that would be Main Street.
Suburbia has never known Main Street. (an old American tradition.)
Pathetic...that so many can only focus on what we LOSE.......................
What we stand to gain, has a value that many have forgotten, many others have never known.
(Daddy, what's a caboose?)

I'm constantly amazed at how many truly believe we are not capable of doing this little chore.
(As if somehow China will beat us to the punch...)
Imagine the quality of their air and water, when their post-industrial hiccup kicks in....they will need a Canadian Health Plan then, big time.)
Europe (somewhat) planned for this eventuality after the 70's oil crises.
America went through the motions, then jumped back on the bandwagon for basically the past two and a half decades. ( read: 5 Republican administrations out of 7)
Well, that's what we got for hiring a movie cowboy to look after our affairs.
Ever notice how much world politics resembles Star Wars these days?
Ever notice how much middle and high school dudes resemble soldiers in training?
I grew up thinking that the youth of this nation served their main purpose: which was to rattle the chains and bars of the insitution.
Of course it's a prison. Always has been.
shhhhh
walk softly and carry a small cellphone.....become loud and visible only when privatizing the public space.
Well....they're only imitating corporate America, anyhow.

By the way...when the cost of plastic becomes prohibitive, will that mean we'll commence digging up all the hardware buried in landfill?
What a marvellous new growth industry!

jp
just let me laugh when it's funny
and when it's sad, let me cry

[highboom]

Good Job:) That was a very good rant... do you mind if I repost it (with due credit) on my blog?

[deconstructionist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('highboom', 'G')ood Job:) That was a very good rant... do you mind if I repost it (with due credit) on my blog?