[dixonge]

Howdy.

If you look at my board stats, you can see that I found this board after the LATOC forums closed, then spent a very brief time here (maybe a month?) back in late 2010. I wasn't here long, but I was here long enough to be irked by Graeme and to voice my theories on how he was some sort of techno-shill...

post1018361.html#p1018361

At the time, my general viewpoint was that we were, in fact, doomed, and that there was no salvation in technology. Here in early 2014, things look a bit different to me and I thought it only fair to come back and admit that I was wrong.

First, my apologies to Graeme. Even though I still dislike it when someone's participation is 95% link and excerpt posting, vs. discussion, I was ridiculously harsh on him for no good reason.

Second, about my change of heart re: technology. That one is a bit more difficult to explain. I guess I let the Doomer despair overwhelm my logic, or maybe political reality overshadowed my faith in technology. Either way, I was recently shaken out of this despair when this news article came in front of my eyes:

Texas Wind Power Sets New US Record

Not only was I surprised that this was going on in my home state, but this particular tidbit especially caught my attention:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll together, wind accounted for an impressive 29 percent of electricity on the ERCOT grid at the time the record was set.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dixonge', 'E')ither way, I was recently shaken out of this despair when this news article came in front of my eyes:
Texas Wind Power Sets New US Record
Not only was I surprised that this was going on in my home state, but this particular tidbit especially caught my attention:

[Beery1]

Dixonge, you were probably more right the first time than you are now. It's easy to believe in tech as the savior until you look at how the tech is created, built and serviced. Wind power is not a long-term energy solution unless it involves pre-18th Century technology and a massive dial back of power consumption. Modern wind power is not the future of energy - all it can ever be is a stop-gap measure in our journey back to the 17th Century.

[Lore]

In the future we will be diverting more of our financial resources to repairing and preventing. Which means there will be a shrinking portion for technological innovation.

During WWII the Germans invested heavily into technology. The V2 rocket, a production jet fighter, the tiger II tank. All of it came, too little too late, to do them any good. The lesson being, great need doesn't necessarily produce timely results. More often the course of events move at a far greater speed.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')But those jobs are kind of what? Make work?

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dixonge', 'W')ow! Somehow, while I was busy being apathetic and simply thinking that the whole world was going to just burn fossil fuels until we extincted ourselves, renewable energy made amazing progress! Over the last month I've consumed mass quantities of documentaries and news articles to catch up on the state of things.

[Pops]

If you can put any faith in the EIA they just aren't seeing renewables as any savior.

OTOH, they see nat gas increasing forever, LTO increasing for a decade and coal use on a flat line so take their guess at face value.

[dixonge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'D')ixonge, you were probably more right the first time than you are now. It's easy to believe in tech as the savior until you look at how the tech is created, built and serviced. Wind power is not a long-term energy solution unless it involves pre-18th Century technology and a massive dial back of power consumption. Modern wind power is not the future of energy - all it can ever be is a stop-gap measure in our journey back to the 17th Century.

[dixonge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'D')ixonge, you were probably more right the first time than you are now. It's easy to believe in tech as the savior until you look at how the tech is created, built and serviced. Wind power is not a long-term energy solution unless it involves pre-18th Century technology and a massive dial back of power consumption. Modern wind power is not the future of energy - all it can ever be is a stop-gap measure in our journey back to the 17th Century.

[dixonge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dixonge', 'W')ow! Somehow, while I was busy being apathetic and simply thinking that the whole world was going to just burn fossil fuels until we extincted ourselves, renewable energy made amazing progress! Over the last month I've consumed mass quantities of documentaries and news articles to catch up on the state of things.

[dixonge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '[')img]http://i61.tinypic.com/bd5j4.jpg[/img]

If you can put any faith in the EIA they just aren't seeing renewables as any savior.

OTOH, they see nat gas increasing forever, LTO increasing for a decade and coal use on a flat line so take their guess at face value.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dixonge', 'A')s this spreads worldwide it reduces the fossil fuel demand, pushing peak oil further out.

[dixonge]

well then let's look at Spain and Portugal

Spain's gas powered electric output fell 34% year-on-year, coal was down 27.3%, nuclear down 8.3%. If that's not a drop in FF I don't know what is. Wind was up 12%, hydro up 13%. Overall power use was down 2.1%. Installed power capacity now stands at 49.1%.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... CMP=twt_gu

Portugal hit 70% of its energy from renewables in 1Q 2013

http://www.juancole.com/2014/01/portuga ... sible.html

[Pops]

I think that's great.
But really, is there any doubt that given enough money you can do just about anything? For a while?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he energy deficit — the accumulated shortfall between the cost of power generation in Spain and what regulated rates bring in from consumers — has reached more than 26 billion euros (about $36 billion). For 2013, the government had targeted a full-year deficit of €3.6 billion. Instead, the shortfall reached €4.5 billion for the period to October.

[KaiserJeep]

I'm a little more pessimistic here than many posters. Germany's goals are very challenging, and they have handicapped themselves even more by retiring their nuclear power plants, they have to replace the lost nuclear capacity, add more capacity for growth, and retire fossil fuel plants all at once.

I think anybody would be lucky to achieve 25% renewables, barring a major advance in either renewable sources or bulk energy storage. Hydropower is typically already developed, and both wind and solar tend to be daytime-only sources.

[dixonge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') think that's great.
But really, is there any doubt that given enough money you can do just about anything? For a while?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he energy deficit — the accumulated shortfall between the cost of power generation in Spain and what regulated rates bring in from consumers — has reached more than 26 billion euros (about $36 billion). For 2013, the government had targeted a full-year deficit of €3.6 billion. Instead, the shortfall reached €4.5 billion for the period to October.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dixonge', 'S')o in spite of heavy government suppression of utility rates, which would impact generator profit and consumer use, renewables have made massive increases of late. But what part of that supports your assertion? How is this money, in the form of rate regulation, helping renewables?