[dashster]

Steven Kopits, of oil field services consulting firm Douglas-Westwood, gave a talk recently in which he stated that conventional crude oil production had peaked in 2005 (he is not including tar sands or tight oil). In the current news item list, they have an article that says crude oil production - not including shale - has fallen back to 2005 levels, and shows EIA graphs supporting that. Why is there a discrepancy? Are tar sands included in the crude oil figures of the EIA?

[sparky]

.
Here we go again , it doesn't matter what is included in "oil"
if it can be refined and power a jet , a truck or a plastic syntetiser it IS oil
sure the "conventionnal crude is depleting , that's not exactly a surprise
but if the not so good , not so sweet , stuff cut the mustard , it's "oil"

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
Here we go again , it doesn't matter what is included in "oil"
if it can be refined and power a jet , a truck or a plastic syntetiser it IS oil
sure the "conventionnal crude is depleting , that's not exactly a surprise
but if the not so good , not so sweet , stuff cut the mustard , it's "oil"

[peterjames]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
Here we go again , it doesn't matter what is included in "oil"
if it can be refined and power a jet , a truck or a plastic syntetiser it IS oil
sure the "conventionnal crude is depleting , that's not exactly a surprise
but if the not so good , not so sweet , stuff cut the mustard , it's "oil"

[AndyA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')He just has to be thankful that conventional oil has produced sufficient net energy for the metal to be dug up to allow said plane to be built.

[peterjames]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AndyA', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')He just has to be thankful that conventional oil has produced sufficient net energy for the metal to be dug up to allow said plane to be built.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dashster', 'S')teven Kopits, ... stated that conventional crude oil production had peaked in 2005...
In the current news item ... says crude oil production - not including shale - has fallen back to 2005 levels ...
Why is there a discrepancy? Are tar sands included in the crude oil figures of the EIA?

[ROCKMAN]

Pops makes a good point. And as much as I hate to jump into the middle of a good pissing contest I'll remind everyone that in the oil patch there is no such thing as conventional or unconventional OIL. There are conventional and unconventional RESERVOIRS. Which is the point Pops is making. There are heavy and sour oils coming out of CONVENTIONAL reservoirs that are worth much less that the production coming out of the UNCONVENTIONAL oil sands reservoirs. And there are medium sweet oils coming out of the UNCONVENTIONAL carbonate reservoirs in Alabama that are much more valuable than oils coming out of CONVENTIOANL reservoirs in Mississippi and the UNCONVENTIONAL Eagle Ford Shale reservoir. And the reason for that is due to the AL oils having a much more lucrative motor fuel yield.

I know this little post won't stop anyone from using the terms unconventional/conventional when referring to oil but I make the point that making generalizations based on such distinctions are going to be confusing and at times contradictory. But such is like, eh? LOL.

[Ron Patterson]

Pops wrote: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ar sands are also "unconventional" because they can't be produced from a well and don't flow without dilution. They are essentially undercooked crude and in Canada I guess they are near the surface due to glacial action. The EIA counts them as crude after they are diluted just like it counts LTO after it is fracked so it can come out of a well.

[zaphod42]

Considering that oil price (WTI) in 2013 was at a record high, and that today it is somewhat higher than it was in '13 (http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa ... 000__3&f=a), it really does not seem to matter what you call it. If adding 29% in 2 years via frac'ing has not moved the price, and the need for more and more wells due to higher depletion rates threatens supply in the near term, I would say we are in deep stuff.

I've been avoiding PO sites lately simply because they have not really made much of a difference that I can see, from any practical standpoint. No one at any significant level of government acknowledges the impact of oil price on the economy; most AGW advocates are more interested in coal (as they should be); and, no one has offered a clear idea on what to do that is plausible in the least degree.

At least Rockman is doing something about the need for oil today. And he can't really do much about geophysical reality, now, can he? Truly unconventional production remains expensive; there seems no way to avoid that. What is the present cost for new conventional oil, including exploration, proving, and production cost? How does that compare with frac'ing, or oil sands production? Those are the questions that point the way to our future. I suggest that people make serious plans on how to deal with that, rather than bandying about terminology.

Craig

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dashster', 'S')teven Kopits, ... stated that conventional crude oil production had peaked in 2005...
In the current news item ... says crude oil production - not including shale - has fallen back to 2005 levels ...
Why is there a discrepancy? Are tar sands included in the crude oil figures of the EIA?

[Ron Patterson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow can they possibly be saying the same thing? One says peak in 2005, once says peak after 2005 - FALLEN BACK TO 2005.
How do you not see a discrepancy in those two statements?

[zaphod42]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow can they be saying the same thing? One says peak in 2005, once says peak after 2005

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ron Patterson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow can they possibly be saying the same thing? One says peak in 2005, once says peak after 2005 - FALLEN BACK TO 2005.
How do you not see a discrepancy in those two statements?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dashster', '
')What does LTO stand for?

If somebody using IEA data is saying "without tar sands and tight oil, crude oil product has fallen back to 2005 levels", then they aren't saying the same thing as Kopits. Kopits says that without tar sands and tight oil, crude oil production peaked in 2005. It hasn't fallen back, to 2005 levels according to Kopits, it has fallen from 2005 levels.

[Pops]

Thanks Ron I was confused as usual.

Dashter, I think you are missing the forest looking for a tree. There is more variance between the different estimates of production than there is growth reported the last 10 years.

In the 2-300 year history of oil, a particular year, month and day are not of great importance. In fact I doubt there will ever be agreement on a date simply because the data is too obscured by politics and profit-motive. What is important here in real time is not a specific date but the trend, and the trend is increasing cost and stalled growth.

[Pops]

Here is an example of why it will be hard to ever put a definitive date on PO - even in hindsight. This is from EarlyWarning, Staniford's blog. It shows that KSA's estimated production sometimes varies nearly a million barrels a day depending on who's counting and that's just one producer.

[Ron Patterson]

Okay we need to define what oil is in order to determine when it peaks. I regard oil as what the EIA calls Crude + Condensate. That is as near as we can get from the published reports to crude oil. I do not regard propane and butane as oil. Hell, they even count ethane as a Natural Gas Liquid. They are bottled gas, not oil. The EIA includes them in their "Total Liquids" category and calls them Natural Gas Liquids.

But there is no general agreement as to whether oil peaks when C+C peaks or when Total Liquids peaks. For me I only track C+C and peak oil will be when C+C peaks. And that includes LTO, (Light Tight Oil) and tar sands. Sorry but they are both oil, not bottled gas like propane and butane and most certainly not ethane which is usually treated just methane.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')atural gas liquids (NGLs) are hydrocarbons—in the same family of molecules as natural gas and crude oil, composed exclusively of carbon and hydrogen. Ethane, propane, butane, isobutane, and pentane are all NGLs.

[zaphod42]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')kay we need to define what oil is in order to determine when it peaks.

[Ron Patterson]

Craig, I agree with Jeffery that "Peak Exports" is the true peak oil for net importing nations. However I must use peak production as peak oil. That is the point where C+C peaks and begins to decline... forever.

I think that point will be sometime between 2013 and 2017.