[Subjectivist]

What Ibon said over in his hardening-narratives-with-increased-external-consequences-t69356.html thread struck a chord with me this morning and caused me to look up an old favorite of mine for discussion. I saw this lecture way back when it came out and always thought it was a much more believable scenario than the Hollywood Mad Max collapse theories.

http://youtu.be/hN7Z95cqZx0

Please watch it and really think about the trap our paradigm of civilization has become.

[Tanada]

James Burke is a genius at presenting things like this. It might feel a bit dated, but if anything it is more true today than it was in 1980.

[Subjectivist]

Those who do not know history repeat the exact same mistakes over and over. Civilizations fade because of those mistakes, often because what is flashy is more interesting than the basic work of maintaining the infrastructure.

We are not investing in upkeep, this year th City of Toledo, one of the top 100 in the US, had hundreds of water mains rupture because many of them are a hundred years old and the climate is not gentle on infrastructure. The streets in many places are nothing but potholes and in other places the asphalt is worn through to the old brick paving below.

Toledo is still home to major GM and Fiat/Jeep manufacturing plants, but the port and rail, airport and road are all falling into disrepair. The police department is under strength by at least 15% and the fire department can barely keep up with emergency calls. Take away even more infrastructure money by raising the fuel costs of the Police and Fire Department and things will get even worse very quickly.

[ralfy]

The global population, resource and energy consumption and requirements, arms production and use, extent of environmental damage, etc., were much lower during the 1970s.

[Poordogabone]

I had forgotten about this series. I watched this one and admit it is brilliant, however, early cultivators could sustain themselves with out the use of plows but would get dominated by tribes that could produce surplus food.
Food = Energy = Power = greed. Civilization is a by product of greed (you can quote me on that).
Native americans and other cultures did well with out bothering with plowing the land at least until the plowers showed up at their doorsteps.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Poordogabone', 'I') had forgotten about this series. I watched this one and admit it is brilliant, however, early cultivators could sustain themselves with out the use of plows but would get dominated by tribes that could produce surplus food.
Food = Energy = Power = greed. Civilization is a by product of greed (you can quote me on that).
Native americans and other cultures did well with out bothering with plowing the land at least until the plowers showed up at their doorsteps.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')he global population, resource and energy consumption and requirements, arms production and use, extent of environmental damage, etc., were much lower during the 1970s.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'W')e are not investing in upkeep, this year th City of Toledo, one of the top 100 in the US, had hundreds of water mains rupture because many of them are a hundred years old ...

[Pops]

P.S. Should have mentioned social and defense spending sprees as well..

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'W')e are not investing in upkeep, this year th City of Toledo, one of the top 100 in the US, had hundreds of water mains rupture because many of them are a hundred years old ...

[Pops]

No doubt we've ridden this paradigm into the dirt and need a change. I hope the Energy Fairy is starting to beat us about the head and shoulders with her PO-wand to force us to come up with some great new idea, fusion maybe or DiLithium Crystals or heaven forbid: conservation. LOL

The population explosion has been about the death rate falling faster than the birth rate. Personally I'd like to see the birth rate continue to fall rather than the death rate start to rise:

[Tanada]

Imagine what the world would be like if energy resources followed the Sigmoid curve instead of the bell curve. Oh wait, Nuclear and Solar do follow the sigmoid function, they are effectively so large in potential that our entire civilization consumes a trivial amount of the potential available.

Too bad we decided to go with the easy make a fire out of chemicals formula of energy supply.

[Poordogabone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Poordogabone', 'I') had forgotten about this series. I watched this one and admit it is brilliant, however, early cultivators could sustain themselves with out the use of plows but would get dominated by tribes that could produce surplus food.
Food = Energy = Power = greed. Civilization is a by product of greed (you can quote me on that).
Native americans and other cultures did well with out bothering with plowing the land at least until the plowers showed up at their doorsteps.

[Perfector]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he population explosion has been about the death rate falling faster than the birth rate. Personally I'd like to see the birth rate continue to fall rather than the death rate start to rise.

[Subjectivist]

The paradigm of peak oil is, if we lose our current civilization it will tke centuries to recover. We have used up all the easy to access raw materials, other than scavanging our descendents won't have much to work with.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'R')egarding the blackout; the phones worked, wouldn't now. And those people in the subway with the birthday cake, candles, cheap wine? The outcome would be very very different today. Not a 'Blackout Party' but rather a bloodbath. Many now have concealed weapon carry permits.

I was a kid then, just home from school/friends house and alone. The power went out, the house went dark, and the TV and radio turned off. I lived 33 miles from NYC (east out on Long Island) and was aware the TV/radio transmitters were in NYC. My tiny rational mind concluded that only a nuclear war could cause such widespread electrical damage. I went up to the attic to look west expecting to see a mushroom crowd. I was alone. It was scarwieeee.

[Tanada]

I think the modern generation is much more fearful of losing their electronic connection to reality because they have always had it from childhood. I fear not having a car because for my generation a car was freedom, the opportunity to just drive over the horizon and start all over if I really made a mess of my life. For my parents who grew up during the Great Depression it was fear of not having enough to eat, ever. I don't know about my Grandparents fears they all died before I was old enough to be accepted as an adult discussing adult topics. I think disease was probably the major fear because their siblings had gotten illnesses like Polio and been crippled for life, or outright died from childhood illnesses we immunize against now.

Take away the technology and we will go back to fear of disease, no complex civilization means no immunizations, no economic collapses, no cars and no electronics. We would be back on an equal footing with a century ago, at best.