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Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 27 Feb 2014, 06:36:33

Those "freebies" are really one of the problems. The government gives them which effectively suppresses capital investment in nuclear power without the freebies to increase yield from the investment.

Another problem is REAL US currency inflation which has been running in double digits for a decade. Has anybody noted that all the major capital investments in Energy in the USA over the last decade all involve non-US money? That would include such diverse projects as the Cape Wind offshore turbine farm in Massachusetts (Barclay's Bank, UK), the five newly constructed coal-carrying Western railroads (Chinese money), and the Keystone pipeline (Canadian money).

Like it or not, there will not be any significant new energy investments in the US, either renewables, nuclear, or FF, until this rampant inflation ends. That in turn requires an end to the uncontrolled printing of money which seems kind of unlikely in this political climate - bend over and spread your cheeks for QE4.

But my main point would be that the financial restraints to investing in new nukes are EXACTLY THE SAME as those that prevent new investments in renewable energy. The implications are that now any money spent on urban real estate, on-grid housing, and EVs is all wasted. Because at TEOTWAWKI, the power grid goes down and stays down, there are no liquid fuels of any type to be had, everything you eat must originate withing 20 miles of your off-grid residence, and you better keep an eye out for roving bands of urban cannibals.

But really, we all know that already, don't we?
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Unread postby Lore » Thu 27 Feb 2014, 07:42:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')You just refuse to let go of your irrational prejudices, don't you?


Nothing irrational about it. It's not going to happen, physically and practicably impossible. I would call that realistic given the data. We could disagree forever about the danger, doesn't change the outcome.


There is plenty irrational about someone who has a preconception, totally unsupported by any facts, who persists upon clinging to that preconception even when presented with credible evidence to the contrary.

But obviously, to someone whose mind is already closed on a particular topic, further conversation is a waste of time.


Fact, without federal tax payer dollars nuclear power is going nowhere.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Why is the Obama administration using taxpayer money to back a nuclear plant that’s already being built?

If nuclear power is such a good idea, why does it need financial help from U.S. taxpayers?

This week, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz announced that the Obama administration would extend a $6.5 billion federal loan guarantee to cover part of the cost of building two new reactors at Southern Co.’s Alvin W. Vogtle site. Thursday he went to Waynesboro, Ga. to finalize the deal. Another $1.8 billion in guarantees could come soon.

The impact: Southern’s Georgia Power subsidiary, which owns 46 percent of the project, will save $225 million to $250 million because the loan guarantee will reduce interest costs. Instead of borrowing from a commercial bank, Southern can now borrow at rock bottom rates from the government’s Federal Financing Bank. And you, gentle reader, the taxpayer, take on all the risk if the project goes bust. Does the name Solyndra ring a bell?
----------
“This is a deeply subsidized project that will cost the taxpayers a lot,” said Ken Glozer, a former Office of Management and Budget senior official who is president of a consulting firm OMB Professionals.
----------
This is all part of a bigger picture. Less than a decade ago, the nuclear industry was anticipating a renaissance, fueled by hopes that climate concerns about fossil fuels would trump safety worries and would help rally support beyond the industry’s usual allies. Congress tried to do its part by approving in the 2005 Energy Policy Act a $17.5 billion program of nuclear loan guarantees.

But even with that help, building a nuclear plant is extremely expensive, and for a single utility, even a large one, to undertake such a project means betting the farm, as former Duke Energy chief executive Jim Rogers once put it. Moreover, costs rose since 2005. While Congress envisioned helping half a dozen reactors or more, the program is now expected to cover only three or four.

Then, if those challenges weren’t enough, the industry was hit by the recession, competition from low natural gas prices, and the Japanese earthquake and tsunami that destroyed three reactors at the Fukushima plant and fanned safety concerns worldwide.

It wasn’t just a perfect storm. It was three perfect storms.

But while five reactors are under construction, four others have closed down or announced plans to close down. Two cited competition from natural gas plants and two others faced large repair and upgrading costs. The renaissance seems to be stillborn.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/won ... ing-built/
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 27 Feb 2014, 10:13:55

Fact: Large renewable energy infrastructure is also going nowhere for the exact same reason.

You take a single biased story from an unreliable liberal rag and you draw a general conclusion that is also wrong.

There is reality, and then there are the erroneous pre-conceptions you hold dear between your ears.

You really should read a variety of sources, including some from sources which oppose your own politics. None will be completely correct, but you won't be deluding yourself wholesale as does someone who seeks out only materials matching his pre-conceptions and prejudices.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Unread postby Lore » Thu 27 Feb 2014, 11:17:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'F')act: Large renewable energy infrastructure is also going nowhere for the exact same reason.

You take a single biased story from an unreliable liberal rag and you draw a general conclusion that is also wrong.

There is reality, and then there are the erroneous pre-conceptions you hold dear between your ears.

You really should read a variety of sources, including some from sources which oppose your own politics. None will be completely correct, but you won't be deluding yourself wholesale as does someone who seeks out only materials matching his pre-conceptions and prejudices.


I'm confused as to where you think this is politics other then the lobby for continued funding? It sounds like financial reality to me?

That reality would tell me that we're better off to concentrate on public and private investment in projects that will have the best immediate return with the least amount of impact on safety and the environment. Since time is running out, an intelligent tactical solution would be to follow the path of least resistance for the maximum benifit. Not throwing money down a rat hole until the treasury is empty and our options are zero.

Also as mentioned, without a Manhattan size effort, there is no infrastructure available to mount a full scale buildout of plants in time to curb the loss of fossil fuels or slow the effects of CO2.

At the same time you're carping about the facts I've presented, you've failed to show any yourself that would illustrate a clear financial and technically feasible way forward to advance nuclear energy in time to make a difference.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 27 Feb 2014, 22:00:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')hose "freebies" are really one of the problems. The government gives them which effectively suppresses capital investment in nuclear power without the freebies to increase yield from the investment.
???????
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 28 Feb 2014, 07:41:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')hose "freebies" are really one of the problems. The government gives them which effectively suppresses capital investment in nuclear power without the freebies to increase yield from the investment.
???????


Sorry, sometimes I forget that everyone that is presently 50 years old or younger is a member of the post-calculator age, and lacks an intuitive grasp of arithmetic. You have NO IDEA how much this frustrates me with the younger engineers I have to mentor at work.

First a basic Civics lesson. I'm sure I don't need to remind you that Legislation has two parts. Simply passing Legislation is an act performed for publicity, to attract attention from the press and also typically to gain votes. It is in the second phase of the Legislative process - appropriations - where they separate the legislation they actually intend to use from all the useless chaff used to curry votes.

In the case of energy infrastructure, there is more Legislation intended to encourage investment in Nuclear Energy than there is available funding. It is the exact same issue that causes so called "government incentives" to have the exact opposite effect than the particular bill is apparently about. I will greatly simplify the numbers for brevity and clarity:

Nuclear plants A and B will both cost $10B for construction and startup. The power company for A applies for and gets a $4B Federal Grant under the incentive legislation for nukes. They put up $3B of their own money and get another $3B by selling bonds. After the first $6B in revenues, they will be in the Black. Say it takes 3 years at $2B per year, then becomes profitable.

Now it's the second half of the fiscal year and all of the funds appropriated to encourage nuclear energy have been awarded and spent. To construct nuke plant "B" requires another $10B, but without available incentive monies this can only be done by spending $5B of their own money and selling another $5B in bonds. No investors are interested in these bonds for B because the returns (profits) will only begin after all of the $10B investment is paid back - which in this case will take 5 years instead of 3. The second plant cannot sell the bonds they need.

Plant B can only be built the next time that funds are appropriated and available from the Feds. In the simple example, this can occur the following year. In the real world, Congress only appropriates funding for nuclear energy every few DECADES and for the last FOUR DECADES funding has been a trickle that only supported R&D of new reactor designs, and not the greater amounts that are required to actually build nuke plants. They got away with this because of the "nuclear hysteria" whipped up by an inflammatory press.

For similar reasons, government funding that is intended as a stimulus for solar energy actually has the opposite effect. Here in California, all the sales for this year's solar residential photo-voltaic roofs occur in January through April. I have learned to interrupt the phone pitch and say I already have a solar roof - else the same firm will call you multiple times per day, every day of the week. But by the end of April, all the year's funding from both the Feds and the California Solar Initiative is GONE, and they will not make another sale until the following year. The paperwork to get the Federal tax incentive, the California State tax Incentive, and the grant money from the power company, plus the permits, takes four months. The brief period when Solar PV construction is done is May through August. Then all is dead until the next year.

I'm NOT claiming this is a big conspiracy, either. The huge gap between Legislation that is passed for appearances sake and that which they actually fund and use is often present simply because there is not enough money to go around. The Federal and State governments may actually WANT to encourage things like Nuclear Energy, Solar Energy, Electric Vehicles, and other ecological wet dreams - but they don't want those things more than they want the appropriations for various entitlement programs, the lack of which would produce an immediate taxpayer riot and eventually Legislators hanging from lamp posts. But thus the environmental legislation that has passed often as not harms the environment. For example, the trickle of funding for Electric Vehicles over FIFTY-TWO YEARS has restricted their sales to a fraction of one percent of cars sold.

In truth, the only reason we have the few nuclear plants we have under construction NOW is that Obama made a priority of it and spent political capital to make it happen. Such political capital is in even shorter supply than Federal funding in many cases - which is the EXACT reason that he is no longer pushing such "shovel ready" projects as the Cape Wind offshore wind power facility, which is opposed by powerful Democrats like the Kennedys, who are ready to watch hundreds of Cape Cod residents die each year from the coal power plant emissions that Cape Wind would prevent. Because the downside is that for wealthy yacht owners, somebody would have to stay sober and steer the boat through the wind turbines. The annual deaths of a few hundred Massachusetts state residents can't compare to THAT.
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