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Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Lore » Tue 25 Feb 2014, 10:48:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Simon_R', 'A') Few Questions
How much nuclear fuel do we have currently (in years)
if we start to ramp up nuclear to replace FF ... how much
what if those pesky guys in the 3rd world want some of this .... how much

thanks

Simon


Good question, which leads to another dead end for nuclear power.

The NEA estimates accessible uranium resources could last more than 200 years at current rates of consumption. Today we have 65 plants with 104 reactors generating about 19% of the nations power. Doubling that would of course halve the remaining resources and there would be even far less if we're to include expansion by other nations around the planet.

There is the argument that we could someday extract further uranium from the oceans. Too expensive when compared to sustainable alternatives. Then there's breeder reactors which pose their own problems. They have major technical hurdles in that breeder reactors produce even more heat, and cannot be cooled by plain old water. Generally the cooling media preferred seems to be liquid sodium and since it catches fire on exposure to air you can imagine the nightmare that would happen if a nuclear accident were to occur as in Japan.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Simon_R » Tue 25 Feb 2014, 11:42:36

So According to the NEA, to have any meaningful reduction in CO2 emissions we need to take 10years and billions of dollars to build stations that can only have a life measured in years and those few years (call it 20) would be expensive (supply and demand).

Unless we can persuade the 3rd world to stay dark for us, doesn't seem a sound investment.

Makes you wonder why our president (france) tried so hard to stop those Iranians having nuclear power (tinfoil hat on !!)
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby yellowcanoe » Tue 25 Feb 2014, 11:59:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', ' ')Then there's breeder reactors which pose their own problems. They have major technical hurdles in that breeder reactors produce even more heat, and cannot be cooled by plain old water. Generally the cooling media preferred seems to be liquid sodium and since it catches fire on exposure to air you can imagine the nightmare that would happen if a nuclear accident were to occur as in Japan.


Sodium has a boiling point of 882.8 C while water has a boiling point of 100 C at sea level. For a reactor to operate efficiently you need to be able to heat the fluid in the primary loop to a fairly high temperature. If water is used the primary loop needs to be kept at a fairly high pressure to keep the water in a liquid state. Since sodium has a much higher boiling point the primary loop doesn't need to be operated at high pressure. High pressure piping is more prone to failure and when it fails water can escape quickly and the pressure in the primary loop will drop to the point that the loop contains a mixture of water and steam that isn't able to transfer heat out of the reactor quickly enough. This is basically what happened at Three Mile Island. The accident actually started with a pump problem in the secondary loop. Even though that problem was quickly identified and corrected by the plant operators it was enough time for the primary loop to over pressurize which triggered a pressure relief valve. Unfortunately, that valve stuck open so the primary loop was left operating at too low a pressure to contain liquid water.

You are correct that sodium will catch fire if exposed to air but using highly pressurized water to extract heat from the reactor has its own problems.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby ralfy » Tue 25 Feb 2014, 12:34:34

Given a global capitalist economy and the use of money, one can only earn if more spend. The implication is that if most in poor countries spend less, then the middle class and the rich lose.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Lore » Tue 25 Feb 2014, 13:06:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Simon_R', 'S')o According to the NEA, to have any meaningful reduction in CO2 emissions we need to take 10years and billions of dollars to build stations that can only have a life measured in years and those few years (call it 20) would be expensive (supply and demand).

Unless we can persuade the 3rd world to stay dark for us, doesn't seem a sound investment.

Makes you wonder why our president (france) tried so hard to stop those Iranians having nuclear power (tinfoil hat on !!)


Which is also why nuclear power is just a talking point and why there is little interest in further private investment.

I believe western governments were more worried about nuclear enrichment of uranium for nefarious proposes then Iran developing such plants for power.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Tanada » Tue 25 Feb 2014, 13:51:45

To put it succinctly, Horse Pucky.

We already have reactors designed to be at convertor level of efficiency. That means for every atom of Uranium or Plutonium they fission another atom of fuel is manufactured from a different isotope of Thorium or Uranium. To continue pretending that the 1965 designs that were only 0.65 convertors is modern technology is ridiculous in the extreme, that is like saying a 1965 Mustang is as good as automobile technology has ever gotten or will ever get.

We have plowed this ground about 100 times in the last 9 years, look up Uranium as a search term and you will get literally thousands of posts that include hundreds of links. Repeating miss-truths, half-truths and out right lies will not make them into truth.

1) modern reactor designs are extraordinarily fuel efficient compared to 1965
2) modern mining techniques are extraordinarily more efficient compared to 1965
3) nobody is building 1965 reactor designs or using 1965 mining technology any longer
4) spent fuel is a political issue, not a technology issue
5) reprocessing fuel is a political issue not a technology issue
6) fear mongering has delayed nuclear fission deployment in the USA for two generations and made GHG emission far worse
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby KaiserJeep » Tue 25 Feb 2014, 14:45:32

I agree on the above points Tanada made and I will add:

Nuclear Power does require a large capital investment some years before the plant goes online to produce power. It is unlikely that any country except the First World plus China, India, etc (i.e. the existing "nuclear club") will ever build one. Since the older designs produce Plutonium which is easily made into weapons, the nuclear club is not accepting any new members.....unless Vladimir Putin sells some in the Middle East.

That would be ...... very bad.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Lore » Tue 25 Feb 2014, 15:37:40

I agree too, why plow the same ole ground again about the issues which are meaningless in the light of the fact that we will do nothing to further any significant advancement in nuclear energy before its far too late. As I've said; private investment is just not there. It's not there, aside from the expense, but because every nuclear reactor, no matter what type, creates fission products, which are highly radioactive materials, some short-lived, some long-lived, to make energy. They all are complicated dangerous and expensive to manage no matter what the technology.

I'm talking about practical implementation in time to save our energy and environmental future. Nuclear power whether it's developing experimental breeder reactors or revisiting again alternative nuclear fuels such as thorium, which by the way is not a fissile material, you actually need either plutonium or enriched uranium to start it. does not get us to where we need to be in the time we need it to. It cannot and will not scale in time.

Whereas, wind, solar, geothermal, some bio, while more expensive, can be deployed right down to a private individual's needs. Not in ten years, but could be done today.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby careinke » Tue 25 Feb 2014, 15:45:47

I think nuclear reactors (especially pebble reactors), are way better from an environmental standpoint than other alternatives . However, there is one big BUT.........collapse.

Personally, I am not sure humanity is going to be around for the next 100 years without a major collapse. Who safely decommissions these things in the event of a major collapse? Do you really think in say, a smallpox type event (like the Native American went through, with a 90% mortality rate, those of us left could safely power these things down?

Now put the same question to solar, or wind, or even coal. For those, it would be a non event. When they stop working no big deal, a nuke on the other hand not so much.

Not that I can change things, but in the end, sticks will probably be our main energy source. Sustainable, easy to produce through coppicing, and if burned right, will also sequester carbon. :)
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Plantagenet » Tue 25 Feb 2014, 15:50:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', ' ')As I've said; private investment is just not there.


Very true. But that doesn't matter now. Thanks to O, investment in the US nuclear industry is coming back to life.

The O administration just awarded 8 billion in federal "loan guarantees." O is gaming the system so the private investors can't lose----if the utility can't pay them back then the federal government will. Private investment will happily step forward and invest now that there are federal loan guarantees securing their loans. :idea:
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Lore » Tue 25 Feb 2014, 16:12:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'I') think nuclear reactors (especially pebble reactors), are way better from an environmental standpoint than other alternatives . However, there is one big BUT.........collapse.

Personally, I am not sure humanity is going to be around for the next 100 years without a major collapse. Who safely decommissions these things in the event of a major collapse? Do you really think in say, a smallpox type event (like the Native American went through, with a 90% mortality rate, those of us left could safely power these things down?

Now put the same question to solar, or wind, or even coal. For those, it would be a non event. When they stop working no big deal, a nuke on the other hand not so much.

Not that I can change things, but in the end, sticks will probably be our main energy source. Sustainable, easy to produce through coppicing, and if burned right, will also sequester carbon. :)


Good point too. Here in Michigan we closed the Big Rock Point Nuclear Power Plant back in 1997 after a 35 year run. The first plant in Michigan and the fifth in the country. It was suppose to be decommissioned in the year 2000 but proved to be unprofitable and so was shut down early. Decommissioning costs totaled $390,000,000 and took two years.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby yellowcanoe » Tue 25 Feb 2014, 17:13:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', ' ')

I'm talking about practical implementation in time to save our energy and environmental future. Nuclear power whether it's developing experimental breeder reactors or revisiting again alternative nuclear fuels such as thorium, which by the way is not a fissile material, you actually need either plutonium or enriched uranium to start it. does not get us to where we need to be in the time we need it to. It cannot and will not scale in time.


You are certainly correct in stating that nuclear cannot be scaled in time. The engineers and managers that would be needed to build a large number of reactors don't exist and the manufacturing capacity for specialized components such as the reactor vessels doesn't exist. We don't have the option to build anything other than pressurized water reactors since the necessary research and extended testing that would have to have been started decades ago wasn't. The US is somewhat better positioned than many other countries because of continued construction of nuclear powered aircraft carriers and submarines. Countries such as Canada that haven't built any nuclear reactors in decades have invariably downsized the organizations responsible for designing and building nuclear reactors out of existence.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Tanada » Wed 26 Feb 2014, 12:06:40

Iran side topic was moved over to the nuclear Iran thread.
the-iran-the-nuclear-factor-thread-pt-2-merged-t63690-120.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'G')ood point too. Here in Michigan we closed the Big Rock Point Nuclear Power Plant back in 1997 after a 35 year run. The first plant in Michigan and the fifth in the country. It was suppose to be decommissioned in the year 2000 but proved to be unprofitable and so was shut down early. Decommissioning costs totaled $390,000,000 and took two years.


Closing a first generation very small plant 3 years before the expiration of its design life is the best example you can come up with? Really? I remember how the media freaked out about Big Rock Point and the fact that the reactor pressure vessel was shipped via rail for permanent burial. The way they acted you would have though people waiting for the train to pass on the crossings were all going to suffer massive exposure.

Yup decommissioning took two years and cost a lot of money, money that the power company had set aside over the life of the plant. By law. Exactly as intended. Bang. Head. On. Desk.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Lore » Wed 26 Feb 2014, 18:54:11

I believe half a billion in today's dollars is talking real money?

The point again is that nuclear power is ultimately expensive and unpredictably dangerous. Big Rock may be dead and gone, but its radioactive waste will live on for many, many generations.

Then again, this is just arguing semantics since there are no resources financially, intellectually or physically to put a chain of nuclear power plants together in time to make an impact on a global, let alone a national scale.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby KaiserJeep » Wed 26 Feb 2014, 19:11:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'I') believe half a billion in today's dollars is talking real money?

The point again is that nuclear power is ultimately expensive and unpredictably dangerous. Big Rock may be dead and gone, but its radioactive waste will live on for many, many generations.

Then again, this is just arguing semantics since there are no resources financially, intellectually or physically to put a chain of nuclear power plants together in time to make an impact on a global, let alone a national scale.


You just refuse to let go of your irrational prejudices, don't you?

Again, nuclear energy is safer than any other form. Safer than natural gas, solar thermal, solar PV, hydro-power, coal, wind turbines, anything else you care to name. "Safer" means that in the entire lifecycle, from mining fuel to reactor de-commissioning and waste disposal, fewer people are injured or killed than with any other form of energy. When you throw a log into your fireplace, you experience more danger than living next to a nuke plant your entire life. There are primary references quoted in my earlier message, which you either refuse to read, or don't believe, even though the sources are respectable.

Your point about modern reactors taking a long construction cycle and costing too much are not valid at all. Modern PBNR's (pebble bed nuclear reactors) are modular, standardized, and inherently safe. Even if abandoned, they can never experience a "China Syndrome" meltdown.

I don't know how else to say it. Get over your nightmares about mushroom clouds. We need those nukes as a bridge to a renewable energy economy, which is going to take decades.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Plantagenet » Wed 26 Feb 2014, 19:32:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')The point again is that nuclear power is ultimately expensive and unpredictably dangerous.


So is CO2 pollution.

All power generating systems have positive and negative aspects. Nukes are expensive and dangerous….but power generating systems that release CO2 may ultimately be even more expensive and dangerous.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Lore » Wed 26 Feb 2014, 19:41:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')You just refuse to let go of your irrational prejudices, don't you?


Nothing irrational about it. It's not going to happen, physically and practicably impossible. I would call that realistic given the data. We could disagree forever about the danger, doesn't change the outcome.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby KaiserJeep » Wed 26 Feb 2014, 22:53:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')You just refuse to let go of your irrational prejudices, don't you?


Nothing irrational about it. It's not going to happen, physically and practicably impossible. I would call that realistic given the data. We could disagree forever about the danger, doesn't change the outcome.


There is plenty irrational about someone who has a preconception, totally unsupported by any facts, who persists upon clinging to that preconception even when presented with credible evidence to the contrary.

But obviously, to someone whose mind is already closed on a particular topic, further conversation is a waste of time.
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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Scrub Puller » Thu 27 Feb 2014, 00:02:51

Yair . . . KaiserJeep. You post seemingly with authority but one only has to go to Wiki to call you out on bullshit . . . not saying that Wiki is all that flash but I would trust information from there more than your illogical rants.

Would you care to justify this statement . . . . just how many of these modular PBNR's are up and running and where and how are the depleted pebbles stored.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')our point about modern reactors taking a long construction cycle and costing too much are not valid at all. Modern PBNR's (pebble bed nuclear reactors) are modular, standardized, and inherently safe. Even if abandoned, they can never experience a "China Syndrome" meltdown.


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Re: Man Bites Dog or... Obama Does Something Right

Postby Keith_McClary » Thu 27 Feb 2014, 01:55:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'Y')our point about modern reactors taking a long construction cycle and costing too much are not valid at all. Modern PBNR's (pebble bed nuclear reactors) are modular, standardized, and inherently safe. Even if abandoned, they can never experience a "China Syndrome" meltdown.
So why aren't they being built? There seems to be no problem with gubmint approvals. They are not being built unless gubmint gives subsidies, loan guarantees, revenue guarantees and liability waivers (=free liability insurance). Would you invest in them without those freebies?
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