[KingM]

This is getting tedious. Where's my collapse?!

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'T')his is getting tedious. Where's my collapse?!

[copious.abundance]

I suppose we were due for a weird jobs report, and today we most certainly got one.

A couple tidbits. First, a must-read ...

>>> The Labor Market Is Tightening Much More Rapidly Than You Think <<<

Second, remember last summer when the doomers were telling us most of the jobs created this year to date were part-time jobs? Well, we now have data for the full year. And according to Table A-9, seasonally adjusted numbers, under "FULL- OR PART-TIME STATUS" ...

Full-time Dec 2012: 115,735,000
Full-time Dec 2013: 117,278,000
-------------------------------------
Gain of 1,543,000

Part-time Dec 2012: 27,560,000
Part-time Dec 2013: 27,372,000
-------------------------------------
Loss of 188,000

Using the unadjusted numbers yields similar results (as it should).

Another doomer argument bites the dust!

[copious.abundance]

California isn't the only one with a budget surplus.



Michigan projects $971M surplus in '15 budget
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Gov. Rick Snyder will have an additional $971.1 million to craft his next state budget plan, prompting a debate about how it should be spent as officials caution two-thirds of the surplus is one-time money.

State economists and budget officials made the projection Friday at their biannual revenue-estimating conference at the state Capitol. The estimate combines a $429.3 million surplus from the 2013 fiscal year with projected revenue increases in the 2014 and 2015 fiscal years for the state’s general purpose and school aid funds.

The consensus estimate leaves Snyder with about $325 million in ongoing revenues to build into the 2015 fiscal year state budget proposal he’ll present to lawmakers in early February, state Budget Director John Nixon said.

“I wouldn’t say we’ve won the lottery,” Nixon told reporters.

Snyder has been cautious about proposals from fellow Republicans in the Legislature to return a portion of the surplus through tax cuts. Democrats have said they want more spending on education and a repeal of a 2011 law subjecting pension income for those born after 1946 to the 4.25 percent state income tax, among other ideas.

Nixon said the state needs to make “strategic investments” in higher education, K-12 schools, public safety and infrastructure. The budget director said the state faces other liabilities that could eat up the surplus “pretty quickly,” such as a $270 million payment owed to the public school employees’ pension fund.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

U.S. budget deficit plunging in fiscal 2014
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-BS454_defici_MG_20140113153414.jpg[/img]

The U.S. Treasury reported some positive fiscal news on Monday: For the first quarter of the fiscal year that began in October, the budget deficit was $120 billion lower compared with the same three months in the year-ago period.

It was further confirmation that the deficit is falling as the economy improves, and the government spends less and collects more in revenue.

The government’s fiscal year runs from October to September.

To get an idea of how quickly the deficit is dropping, consider how much it fell from calendar year 2012 to 2013. For all of 2013, the deficit was $560.5 billion compared to $1.06 trillion in 2012. That’s a drop of about $500 billion.

Three months into fiscal 2014, in other words, the deficit has dropped just over one-fifth of what it did in a whole calendar year.

Numbers like these will make calendar year 2009 a distant memory: that year the deficit peaked at $1.47 trillion, up from $680 billion in 2008, as the U.S. struggled with the financial crisis.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('copious.abundance', 'C')alifornia isn't the only one with a budget surplus.

[img]more%20wasted%20bandwidth[/img]

[copious.abundance]

I think maybe p-the-starr should start reading Cliff Mass, who knows a helluva lot more about meteorology and climatology than he does.

In other news ...

21st Century Economy: IBM unveils $1 billion Watson Group in New York City to fund artificially intelligent apps
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/blogs/future_tense/2013/01/10/watson_ibm_s_supercomputer_memorized_urban_dictionary_then_it_was_taken/108024371.jpg.CROP.rectangle3-large.jpg[/img]

IBM's Jeopardy!-winning artificial intelligence platform Watson has already branched out into highly advanced customer service, assisting doctors and opened its programming code to outside researchers. But today, Watson is getting its biggest show of support yet from IBM. This morning, the company announced the formation of the Watson Group, a new $1 billion-division within IBM that will focus specifically on helping outside developers and other companies create new apps for Watson.

The 2,000-member group, which has been quietly active since November, is headquartered in Astor Place, the heart of Manhattan's "Silicon Alley," close to numerous other startups and New York University. The idea is to tap into the local talent and help other businesses find new uses for Watson. IBM has committed $1 billion to the venture, with $100 million in venture funding for other companies available now.

The company also said it's shrunk the Watson supercomputer hardware from the size of a room to a stack of three pizza boxes, and is teaching the system to watch and understand the content of videos, not just the associated metadata. Similarly, IBM has taught Watson how to respond to the queries people give it with a wider range of responses rather than just text, including drawing pictures. "The era of machine-human collaboration is dawning now," said Michael Rhodin, IBM's senior vice president in charge of the Watson Group, during a press event this morning. IBM also released the following ad promoting Watson's capabilities and potential.

{snip: nifty video at link}

So far, Watson's first few applications have been focused on medicine and healthcare. It's partnered with several notable cancer treatment centers, scanned hundreds of millions of medical articles, and can now recommend personalized treatment for individual cancer patients, providing a prioritized list of potential options.

[...]

[Lore]

After one year of the right to work legislation that was rammed down the voters throat has Michigan still ranking third in unemployment with no new jobs attributed to the passage of the change.

[copious.abundance]

U.S. Conference Board: Employment Trends Index Increases in December
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]A compilation of U.S. labor-market indicators shows a better-looking labor market than was sketched out by the small gain in payrolls in December, according to a report released Monday.

The Conference Board said its December employment trends index increased to 115.76, from a revised 115.72 in November, first reported as 115.21.

The latest index is up 5.2% from a year ago.

"Despite the disappointing job numbers for December, the improvement in the Employment Trends Index is signaling solid employment growth in the months ahead," said Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic research at the board.

On Friday, the Labor Department said only 74,000 jobs were added in December, sharply less than the 200,000 increase economists expected.

The board said six of the ETI's eight components contributed to the December gain. The biggest positives were the number of temporary workers and the percentage of consumers who think jobs are "hard to find," according to a separate Conference Board survey.
The board's employment trends index is an aggregate of eight labor-market indicators, including jobless claims, job openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and industrial production figures from the Federal Reserve. The index seeks to facilitate forecasts for employment, unemployment and wages by filtering out the noise and volatility of monthly labor market indicators and showing underlying trends more clearly.

[copious.abundance]

This is a bit of a wash due to the downward revision to November, but overall the two months are still pretty good readings.



Retail Sales in U.S. Climbed More Than Forecast in December
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Retail sales rose more than forecast in December as consumers snapped up holiday gifts amid year-end discounting, giving the world’s biggest economy a lift at the end of 2013.

Purchases increased 0.2 percent after a 0.4 percent advance in November that was smaller than previously reported, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 86 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.1 percent gain. Excluding cars, demand jumped by the most in almost a year.

[...]

Purchases excluding auto dealers climbed 0.7 percent in December, the biggest gain since February, today’s report showed. In addition to food stores, other retailers showing increased demand included clothing stores, restaurants and pharmacies.

Sales excluding merchants such as food services, car dealers, hardware stores and service stations -- which are the figures used to calculate gross domestic product -- increased 0.7 percent in December, the biggest jump since July 2012, after posting a revised 0.2 percent gain the prior month that was smaller than previously estimated.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

Empire State Manufacturing Sector Revs Up in January
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Manufacturers in New York say business conditions this month are the best in more than a year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Survey released Wednesday.

The Empire State's business conditions index increased to 12.51 in January from a revised 2.22 in December, originally reported as 0.98. This month's reading is the highest since May 2012.

As usually happens in January, the New York Fed revised the previous year's data to reflect new seasonal factors. A reading above 0 indicates expansion.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the latest index to rise but only to 3.0.

"The January 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity expanded for New York manufacturers and did so at a faster pace than in recent months," the report said.

The Empire subindexes are generally much improved.

The new orders index jumped to 10.98 in January from -1.69 in December, while the shipments index increased to 15.52 from 4.69.

Demand for labor also picked up. The employment index increased to 12.20 from zero in December, while the workweek index rose to 1.22 from -10.84.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

U.S. jobless claims fall to six-week low: Applications for benefits drop 2,000 to 326,000; back to pre-Thanksgiving level
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2014/01/16/Photos/MG/MW-BS696_ICSA_20140116092242_MG.png?uuid=b0c475f2-7eb9-11e3-ac9f-00212803fad6[/img]

The number of Americans who applied last week for unemployment benefits fell slightly and is now back to a level that prevailed shortly before the Thanksgiving holiday, a signal that layoffs remain at a post-recession low.

Initial jobless claims dipped by 2,000 to 326,000 in the week ended Jan. 11, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s the smallest number in six weeks.

“Jobless claims remain at a level consistent with improving labor market conditions,” said economist Yelena Shulyatyeva of BNP Paribas.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected claims to total 330,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Claims are a good proxy for whether layoffs are rising or falling, but they only offer indirect clues about the pace of hiring. The employment report for December released last week showed a big deceleration in hiring, but bad weather appears to have been a key factor. Overall, the U.S. added an average of about 180,000 jobs a month in 2013, virtually matching the gains in 2012.

Claims tend to gyrate up and down during the holiday season, making the report less useful than usual as a barometer of labor-market trends. States process applications more slowly because of office closures, and some people wait longer to file claims. The report usually smoothens out by the end of January.

The average of new claims over the past month, seen as a more reliable gauge, fell by 13,500 to 335,000. That’s the lowest level in five weeks.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

Philly Fed manufacturing index rises to 9.4, above exp. for 8.6
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia-region expanded at a faster rate than expected in January, fuelling optimism over the U.S. economic outlook, official data showed on Thursday.

In a report, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index improved to 9.4 this month from December’s reading of 6.4. Analysts had expected the index to rise to a reading of 8.6 in January.

On the index, a reading above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions.

The current shipments and new orders indexes remained positive but moved in opposite directions compared with December. The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, decreased from a revised reading of 12.9 to 5.1 this month.

Labor market indicators showed some improvement this month. The current employment index increased 6 points from its revised reading in December.

[...]

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Many large U.S. retailers slashed their earnings forecasts on Thursday because of steep discounts they offered during the holidays to persuade reluctant consumers. The discounts boosted overall industry sales but hurt profits at many chains. Even retailers that reported big sales gains were not spared.

Retailers also had to deal with shoppers who were less willing to go into stores: Data firm ShopperTrak this week said foot traffic had dropped 14.6 percent this holiday season.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', 'T')he real solution is to jettison the bubble structure, and transition to a natural and robust manufacturing / mining / agriculture economy, where REAL productive assets are wielded to generate REAL growth ... not bubble fluff.

[copious.abundance]

Housing starts fell in December, but that's only after a huge surge in November - which was even revised upward - and was also better than the consensus estimate. Also, weather may have been a factor in the December decline.



Builders Begin Work on More U.S. Homes Than Forecast
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The pace of U.S. home construction dropped less than forecast in December, capping the best year for the industry since 2007.

Housing starts fell 9.8 percent to a 999,000 annualized rate following November’s revised 1.11 million pace, which was the highest since November 2007, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The median estimate of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 985,000. Permits for future projects declined, a sign activity may pause in early 2014.

[...]

For all of 2013, builders began work on 923,400 homes, up 18.3 percent from the prior year and the most since 2007’s 1.36 million.

Work on single-family houses fell 7 percent to a 667,000 rate in December from 717,000 the prior month. Construction of multifamily projects such as condominiums and apartment buildings declined 14.9 percent to an annual rate of 332,000.

Two of four regions showed a decrease in groundbreaking last month, led by a 33.5 percent plunge in the Midwest. Starts fell 12.3 percent in the South, were little changed in the Northeast and rose 15 percent in the West to a six-year high of 269,000.

Weather may have played a role in setting back some builders, autodealers and retailers as last month was the coldest December since 2009. Snowfall was 21 percent above normal, according to weather-data provider Planalytics Inc.

[...]

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')oyal Dutch Shell, Europe’s largest oil company by market capitalization, warned on Friday that results for the fourth quarter of 2013 were “expected to be significantly lower than recent levels of profitability.” The company said earnings for the quarter, adjusted for one-time charges and inventories, would shrink to $2.9 billion, a 48 percent decline compared with the same period a year earlier. Shell, which is based in The Hague, blamed weak industry conditions in refining, higher exploration expenses and lower production of oil and natural gas for the poor performance.

Shell has been hurt by the poor environment for refining crude oil into products like gasoline and diesel, especially in Europe. Analysts say that nearly all refineries in Europe are losing money because they are unable to sell their refined products for more than the cost of crude oil and processing.

Shell continues to spend heavily on oil and gas projects. Net capital expenditure for the fourth quarter was expected to be approximately $15.8 billion, the company said. All of the major oil companies are now under pressure from investors to rein in capital spending that does not appear to be producing adequate returns. Shell has already begun cutting back.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')No substantial onshore reserves left in the US.