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Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby RobertInget » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 10:23:40

Climate deniers are positively jumping up and down to keep warm and blather on how a Polar Vortex is a Lefty plot and this record cold weather
disproves AGW. OR is it?

A record-setting heat wave impacted much of Australia during the final week of 2013 and the first week of 2014.
The heat wave was a fitting end to 2013, which has been confirmed as the hottest year in Australia on record by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
Although this heat wave was not as long in duration as some notable heat waves of past years, many areas recorded their hottest day on record.

A woman tries to cool off with ice in a cup on a hot day, photo courtesy of photos.com.
The heat increased across Western Australia late in December before moving into South Australia and eventually rose across parts of Queensland and New South Wales in early January.
The heat peaked across Queensland on Jan. 3, which became the hottest day on record in Queensland, according to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
The heat wave also had deadly impacts on the wildlife of Queensland as reports indicate as many as 100,000 bats have died from the heat, according to the RSPCA.
The highest temperature that was reported during the heat wave was 49.3 degrees on Jan. 2 in Moomba, South Australia. This temperature fell just short of the heat experienced in January of 2013.
The Bureau of Meteorology also reported that 34 locations in Australia set all-time high temperature records between Dec. 30 and Jan. 4.
While the heat has relaxed across most of Australia, heat is building once again across much of Western Australia and will reach Perth by the weekend.
High temperatures in Perth are expected to reach and perhaps exceed 40 C (104 F).
Weather News >
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby Strummer » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 10:57:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')So you have major change 1000 years ago and you can pretty much dismiss the 9000 years before that. The next big change was McCormick’s reaper and the cotton gin in the 1800s.
So what different picture do you see looking back past 250 years?


You are focusing on the technological changes, and missing the real ones. The pivotal point in the development towards capitalism was not technological innovation, but as I mentioned previously, the Black Death. By killing 50% of Europe's population (not to mention the Mediterranean countries, where it was closer to 80% dead), it freed up huge amounts of land and all other resources, and caused an unprecedented shortage of labour. And then, right before Europe could again descend into the overpopulated stagnant mess it has been before the plague, came the discovery of the Americas and the subsequent colonization and exploitation of the new continents. Again, a huge, almost unimaginable resource surplus accompanied by shortage of labour that would be able to exploit those resources. Those are the two main factors which capitalism needs to even exist. Can you imagine what would happen today if 50% of the industrial world would be wiped out? Yes, there would be chaos and collapse. But the resources and infrastructure would not disappear, and after things settled down, the value of skilled labour would skyrocket, followed by a huge rise in living standards due to the freed-up resources... competition and innovation would thrive. A true capitalist paradise.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby Lore » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 12:59:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he goal of capitalism is not "continuous growth", it is continuous accumulation via private property, I never have figured out the whole bit about "continuous growth" outside of banking. Acquisition would still be the goal in a zero sum world and maybe even more important in a world where "wealth" and growth is negative.

You could cut off all the ff energy and shutter all the banks tomorrow and the economy would go into freefall but the goal (after survival) would still be acquiring more, not "continuous growth". It might only mean more rutabagas in the root cellar, but the natural tendency is then more rutabaga growing room, then more rutabaga tenders, etc.

Am I right that the folks who typically agitate for true communism are the folks from whom nothing would be taken in the great reshuffling? Whatever economic model is not to blame for the ills of the world, human's penchant for acquisition and finding an "easier way" perhaps is.

Perhaps there were people once upon a time who didn't compete with each other for resources. I think it likely their populations were kept in check by other means that precluded the need for direct competition. What we idolize as idyllic from our antibiotic disinfected couches (cracks stuffed with stale cheese doodles) was maybe not so. In the end, the proof of the success of that strategy in a "modern" population pressured world is in how many of those folks are left.

So is GW going to end capitalism? I think it's hardly likely, I've mentioned all the billions made just as a result of Katrina and Sandy. There is lots of money to be made repairing broken windows.


I believe the operative words here are "continuous accumulation". In order to so, requires an unlimited and stable resource base to draw from. Climate change throws a monkey wrench into both requirements.

It's also misleading to suggest that there is never ending profit to fix things that are broken. All of which is based on the supply constraints we fundamentally talk about here everyday. Basically that's how wars are lost. Capital itself is not without limits. We're not about to build a seawall all along the East Coast, or pipe the Great Lakes to supply the Midwest with irrigation among a thousand other problems.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby Pops » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 13:45:50

Wealth is relative, warlords in Somalia are at the top of their particular heap. Just because the heap is pretty small doesn't seem to have caused an outbreak of the "sharing" economy or ecotopian communes, LOL. It is capitalism at it's most basic: for profit, private enterprise.

I didn't say profit would increase forever, in fact profits and accumulation could decrease forever and still private, for profit ownership would survive. The Idea is accumulation and even in a decreasing economy you can bet someone will be profiting and accumulating.

So again, I think it is doubtful GW by itself means the end of capitalism - as much as some think the end of capitalism would be the end of GW.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby RobertInget » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 13:56:48

It's not difficult to predict climate outcomes, reputable science overwhelms us with confirming data on now a daily basis. My personal revelation came only the other day when Rush Limbaugh named the 'Polar Vortex' a left wing plot. It suddenly occurred to me, Nothing Rush or Al Gore say will halt, even exacerbate drastic life changing conditions.

Capitalism will accommodate itself to conditions. China, Vietnam,
prove this daily.

I'm reminded of Churches in Guatemala prior to slaughter of a hundred thousand Native American Indians in the region. In every
village courtyards, steps leading up to the Church entrance were decorated with symbols of the local native religion. Catholic priests
simply ignored those displays even on saint's days. Priests, unlike the right wing army, knew it was better to adapt, than to punish and forbid.
Contrast North and South Korea.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby Tanada » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 14:18:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')ealth is relative, warlords in Somalia are at the top of their particular heap. Just because the heap is pretty small doesn't seem to have caused an outbreak of the "sharing" economy or ecotopian communes, LOL. It is capitalism at it's most basic: for profit, private enterprise.

I didn't say profit would increase forever, in fact profits and accumulation could decrease forever and still private, for profit ownership would survive. The Idea is accumulation and even in a decreasing economy you can bet someone will be profiting and accumulating.

So again, I think it is doubtful GW by itself means the end of capitalism - as much as some think the end of capitalism would be the end of GW.


Thus spake the Wisdom of the Experienced!

I think you are 100% on target Pops, some people think wealth accumulation and capitalism are brand new ideas invented in the 1800's but they are not, they are ideas as old as the Human Race. If Global warming kills Capitalism and everyone is singing KumBayA http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGU8_9UuSM4 at the local commune it won't last a generation before someone decides they deserve more and gets together a gang of like believers to take more than their 'fair share'.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby radon1 » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 16:37:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')How is it possible to earn return on capital in a closed static economic system? What kind of capitalism is this where there is no return on capital?

The downside of the peak oil curve will be just as dynamic as the upside was. The profit will come to those that use scarce energy more efficiently then their competition. Crops will still grow in the sunlight and carefully utilized raw materials will be made into products worth more then the parts and labor that went into them. Finding replacements that can do the work a barrel of oil can do will be hard but the best replacement that can be found no matter how inferior to oil will determine the cost and value of work done by that substitute and all other contenders
We have spent about a hundred years using our ingenuity to find more and better was to use oil. We will spend the next hundred trying to find ways to do the same jobs with something other then oil or other fossil fuels.


All valid observation but kind of missing the key point. There is no place for application of capital in an isolated static system/market - because it is already balanced and self-reproducing.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby Lore » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 17:32:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')ealth is relative, warlords in Somalia are at the top of their particular heap. Just because the heap is pretty small doesn't seem to have caused an outbreak of the "sharing" economy or ecotopian communes, LOL. It is capitalism at it's most basic: for profit, private enterprise.

I didn't say profit would increase forever, in fact profits and accumulation could decrease forever and still private, for profit ownership would survive. The Idea is accumulation and even in a decreasing economy you can bet someone will be profiting and accumulating.

So again, I think it is doubtful GW by itself means the end of capitalism - as much as some think the end of capitalism would be the end of GW.


Thus spake the Wisdom of the Experienced!

I think you are 100% on target Pops, some people think wealth accumulation and capitalism are brand new ideas invented in the 1800's but they are not, they are ideas as old as the Human Race. If Global warming kills Capitalism and everyone is singing KumBayA http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGU8_9UuSM4 at the local commune it won't last a generation before someone decides they deserve more and gets together a gang of like believers to take more than their 'fair share'.


It has been pointed out already that there are many forms of capitalism, but what I thought we were talking about is modern capitalism, not the basic individual for profit motive? Capitalism and simple wealth accumulation by individuals are two different things. I can be a wealthy thief, a rich monarch, or a greedy gang leader and not be a capitalist.

If you agree with a return to feudalism then you acknowledge that trade, industry and the means of production will no longer be controlled by private owners. Out of necessity the scarcity for life's basic needs, protection of those resources and allocation of them led to the feudal state. Climate change and peak oil frames a return to those circumstances very well.

Capitalism flourishes when there is plenty to be had by all and the well seems bottomless. Not so much when the bucket is bringing up mud in a drought.
Last edited by Lore on Wed 08 Jan 2014, 17:55:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby radon1 » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 17:49:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')I didn't say profit would increase forever, in fact profits and accumulation could decrease forever and still private, for profit ownership would survive. The Idea is accumulation and even in a decreasing economy you can bet someone will be profiting and accumulating.


In order to profit and accumulate, it is necessary to effect interaction of independent self-reproducing economic units/markets. Look at the primitive tribes - they do not accumulate until (and unless) they come into interaction with other tribes, even if the latter were offspring of their own kicked away a long ago. Historically, we have lived in the world where these economic units were a myriad - every family, tribe, a household, fiefdoms etc. Proto-capitalists (with the help of state), from the earliest days of their emergence (3000BC as per KJ), worked into "dissolving" these units and uniting them into larger and larger ones - county-wide, country-wide and eventually civilisation-wide. In the process, the capital earned its return, producing all the niceties all along - prosperity, progress, technology and (to some extent) innovation, but becoming an ugly beast at times where he could no longer find its prey - those economic units, for further absorption, - and then working people were decimated and wars erupted.

Comparing North Korea and South Korea is a kind of misleading, as North Korea is a system in itself, while South Korea is a tiny bit of the world's system, which now covers almost the entire globe.

Because we have never lived in a different situation, we always assume that the world will be that myriad of units - and this is the way we think about the things. But extrapolating the current trends, at some point the very last North Korea will be incorporated into the world's single unit and we will all become one large tribe, not so different from the primitive ones in economic terms. Luckily for us, it looks like it will take quite a long time. In terms of social consequences to the society, accumulation and profiting will become very much similar to what is synthesis of oil from CO2 and water in terms of physical consequences to the environment - dries it to the bones. It will only be possible by coercion, rather than by application of capital in its creative aspects.

I am cautiously optimistic though, think people will gradually modernise their approaches.
Last edited by radon1 on Wed 08 Jan 2014, 18:05:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby americandream » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 18:04:42

Just to clarify accumulation:

Prior to capitalism, there was no such thing as accumulation. Accumulation requires the presence of labour, surplus value and derivative structures in order to amplify said accumulaion. This accounts for why gold made sense in the feudal era where wealth was largely fixed (obtained by conquest) and hereditary. In contrast, capitalism gravitates towards a casino like state as these derivative structures take precedence over labour.

Capitalism was a product of its time. It will never be replicated again. It will reach its logical conclusion and something else (which contemplates the shadow of capitalism, will replace it. It may be crude warlordism (a mix of feudalism but with the crude greed of capital) or labour accession to the commons.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby ralfy » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 22:22:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'E')conomists have been obsessed with the need for growth for centuries. In all that time there has always been a growing population which was in fact the cause of the need for growth not some inherent flaw in the capitalistic economic system. When the population stops growing and indeed starts to decline where will there be a need for growth in the economy? Will not next years Christmas sales be just as good as last years sales if there are the same number of stockings to fill. Will not last years harvest be sufficient if there are the same or less mouths to feed?
Yes capitalism will face challenges ahead and it will win.


I don't think economists in general have been obsessed with the need for growth. Rather, they are interested in processes involving production and consumption of goods.

There has been a growing population, but not at the rate that took place during the last few decades.

There will still be a need for growth even as the population plateaus because of multiple factors involving competition, planned obsolescence, the desire for newer models, etc. However, if only a subsistence economy remains (i.e., just mouths to feed), then there will be no need for growth. Of course, such an economy is no longer capitalist.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby ralfy » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 22:45:17

From what I know, the goal of capitalism is profit. The process is achieved through continuous growth. Accumulation of private property was more prominent centuries ago, but it's now accumulation of money for re-investment.

The need for continuous growth was explained in another thread, and it's not very hard to understand. The profit generated by a business acts like interest: it increases money supply. That money is ultimately invested in increasing production and consumption of goods.

In a zero sum world, there will be no profit or return on investment, no competition, a population that plateaus, and no material resource gain due to technology and no loss due to environmental damage, global warming, etc.

Accumulating more is only part of the process in capitalism. Rather, it's accumulating more which can be used to capitalize more production of goods in return for more profits. Thus, capitalism takes place not only when goods are produced, but when a profit is made from sale of goods, and the profit reinvested in the business to produce more goods. Given a fixed cost, the producer makes more profits given more goods produced and sold. With competition, he can sell goods at lower prices and thus gain market share.

I think that criticism of capitalism in this forum is not necessarily meant to call for communism but to realize that continuous growth, which is part of capitalism, cannot continue not only due to global warming but to peak oil, as both lead to a decrease in resources needed to increase production of goods.

Now, if global warming and even peak oil won't lead to a decrease in the production of goods, then one can probably argue that capitalism will end. In fact, in many ways, we are seeing something like that right now, given the belief that more money created will, among others, increase oil production readily.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby americandream » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 23:57:17

ralfy

I will be brief. The notion of profit is somewhat misleading as it is an abstract rather meaningless term when used in the revolutionary context. The specific use of the term "accumulation" was designed to convey the actual object at work with the rise of the urbanisation of labour in factories. As distinct from the manner in which serfs were applied by the nobility (as indentured soldiers as well as their periodic tithes....there was no accumulation in feudalism as you will understand in what follows)

Bourgeoise gather labourers in factories (or offices by contemporary culture) where their surplus value is accumulated by the capitalist, as a bee would extract, going from worker to worker. The accumulation of that value, represented for the purposes of exchange by money (where the workers component of the surplus value is further captured by the capitalist), of course leads to further investment injection back into the process. As the momentum of surplus value gathers pace, the risk of consumer inflation rises, heralding growth and central bank managed inflation) (good inflation).

The momentum of surplus value is forever weighted by the costs ( capitalists incur in applying their capital or bad inflation), something they seek to mitigate through wages. Peak resourcing poses significant risk to this momentum in risking brewing a protracted and growing leakage out of that momentum and accumulation (the decisive class of bad inflation). With that bad inflation, a characteristic of late capitalism, comes deflation as the overcapacity of capitalists embark on a race to the bottom.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby ralfy » Thu 09 Jan 2014, 04:30:53

Thanks, AD. I think the process has to be explained in a simpler manner as most forum members are not Marxists.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby americandream » Thu 09 Jan 2014, 05:15:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')hanks, AD. I think the process has to be explained in a simpler manner as most forum members are not Marxists.


Fair enough. I shan't be in here as frequently in future but will pop in with the odd snippet.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby vtsnowedin » Thu 09 Jan 2014, 08:28:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'r')alfy

I will be brief. The notion of profit is somewhat misleading as it is an abstract rather meaningless term when used in the revolutionary context. The specific use of the term "accumulation" was designed to convey the actual object at work with the rise of the urbanisation of labour in factories. As distinct from the manner in which serfs were applied by the nobility (as indentured soldiers as well as their periodic tithes....there was no accumulation in feudalism as you will understand in what follows)

Bourgeoise gather labourers in factories (or offices by contemporary culture) where their surplus value is accumulated by the capitalist, as a bee would extract, going from worker to worker. The accumulation of that value, represented for the purposes of exchange by money (where the workers component of the surplus value is further captured by the capitalist), of course leads to further investment injection back into the process. As the momentum of surplus value gathers pace, the risk of consumer inflation rises, heralding growth and central bank managed inflation) (good inflation).

The momentum of surplus value is forever weighted by the costs ( capitalists incur in applying their capital or bad inflation), something they seek to mitigate through wages. Peak resourcing poses significant risk to this momentum in risking brewing a protracted and growing leakage out of that momentum and accumulation (the decisive class of bad inflation). With that bad inflation, a characteristic of late capitalism, comes deflation as the overcapacity of capitalists embark on a race to the bottom.

What a collection of twaddle!! AD you are beyond hope. Get a haircut and get a real job.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby americandream » Thu 09 Jan 2014, 08:58:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'W')hat a collection of twaddle!! AD you are beyond hope. Get a haircut and get a real job.


Abusing me does not alter the march of finite forces vis a vis an infinite system.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby Quinny » Thu 09 Jan 2014, 17:44:02

Methinks it's a lot of the capitalists will be getting a haircut!
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Jan 2014, 09:20:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'M')ethinks it's a lot of the capitalists will be getting a haircut!

And a lot of liberal socialists as well.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Postby Lore » Fri 10 Jan 2014, 09:44:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'M')ethinks it's a lot of the capitalists will be getting a haircut!

And a lot of liberal socialists as well.


True, darker more nefarious forms or rule will begin to emerge.
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