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Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby americandream » Mon 06 Jan 2014, 15:29:37

I will wind up my contributions in this thread in suggesting that you people understand the connection between material dialecticism and evolution in general. Whilst a lot of what people like vtsnowedin are saying appears intuitive, one has to remember that humankind has broken apparently entrenched patterns when material conditions dictated. Primal needs for self preservation (food and shelter) always trumps other concerns agreed, but the rise of wants (greed) as a phenomenon is directly connected with material conditions and approaching conditions will dictate whether we adapt successfully or become another failed species. In this context, sharing would seem fairly obvious and the direction we are likely to be compelled to follow. But this is no guarantee as the timespans are not in our favour.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby Quinny » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 04:39:55

The question was asked why it's in the majorities self interest to become communist. What's the average income/wealth? To how many people would this be an improvement?
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby radon1 » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 06:21:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'T')he question was asked why it's in the majorities self interest to become communist. What's the average income/wealth? To how many people would this be an improvement?


Income/wealth are "capitalistic" measures, they are pretty meaningless under "communism". They are based on the presumption of consumption inequality and on monetary values. Under communism, in its pure theoretical form, money are non-existent. This pure form is probably unachievable (and unnecessary) but it can prudently assumed that under "communism" income/wealth will be equal to zero. Well, it won't be the case, but better manage own expectations from the bottom up.

There would not be much of an improvement - if anything, things will become much tougher for everyone. Not as a consequence of communilisation, but because of general resource limitations. The reasons for communilisation are not to "take and divide" - they are mostly to avoid sliding into a much deeper hole.

Once the elites understand that they can no longer able to extract value using the mechanics of capitalism, they will revert to the extraction of the value from the commons. For the populace, this will mean return to serfdom. Initially, in some concealed forms - like higher property taxation, foreclosures, enactment of "anti-crisis" measures etc. It will be told that this is still "capitalism", but in an "anti-crisis" mode. In the meantime, unemployment will help this process. The technological base will be prone to degradation due to the collapse of the existing system of the division of labour - entire professions, specialisations, technological processes will die out. As a consequence, educational and living standards will fall dramatically, and at some point you will no longer remember what democracy is, what capitalism is, and what arithmetic is. At an extreme, the elites will only need that many serfs, and the resource base will only be able to support that many serfs, and rest will be let to themselves with no means of support whatsoever.

So, "communism" here is not to "take and divide", it is not to let a group of individuals ("the elite") to occupy the commons.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 08:33:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '[')I don't believe we or anybody else lives in a pure Democracy based on strict modern Capitalistic economic rules either, do you?

No of course not. But you wouldn't want a pure Democracy anyway. They always fail from the majority voting themselves bread and circuses without the taxes to pay for them. You need the responsibility imposed by a constitutional republic that balances rights and freedoms with civic duties and necessary taxes.
All of the western Democracies have been corrupted to some degree to the advantage of the rich and powerful individuals and their corporations but the solution is to reign in these excesses not start over with a socialist system that surely will fail miserably.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby Lore » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 10:40:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '[')I don't believe we or anybody else lives in a pure Democracy based on strict modern Capitalistic economic rules either, do you?

No of course not. But you wouldn't want a pure Democracy anyway. They always fail from the majority voting themselves bread and circuses without the taxes to pay for them. You need the responsibility imposed by a constitutional republic that balances rights and freedoms with civic duties and necessary taxes.
All of the western Democracies have been corrupted to some degree to the advantage of the rich and powerful individuals and their corporations but the solution is to reign in these excesses not start over with a socialist system that surely will fail miserably.


I think it's been mentioned already, but historically human societies seem to gravitate towards a socialist system. Pretty much proven by their numbers. Hybrid Socialist Democratic Republics like ours, or those of Western Europe seem to be closer to the reality of what occurs in advanced industrialized societies and are a rather recent form of governance in the frame of human history.

Once the inevitable collapse of capitalism happens, under environmental and resource scarcity, I believe we'll see a return to many of the old forms of social rule.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 12:32:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '[')Once the inevitable collapse of capitalism happens, under environmental and resource scarcity, I believe we'll see a return to many of the old forms of social rule.

I don't see a collapse of capitalism as being remotely likely much less inevitable. Certain of the hybrids as you call them may well collapse under the weight of the debts they have taken on but what remains will be capitalist in function whether it be kingdom, dictatorship, tribe or corporate monopoly.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby Strummer » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 13:01:05

I always thought that the "natural" order that agricultural/industrial society gravitates towards must be some form of feudalism. The end of feudalism really seems to be a freak event, caused by a sudden shortage of labour after the Black Death in the 14th and 15 century, followed by an unexpected abundance of resources due to the colonial expansion starting in the 16th century. The fact that the abundance of resources was always a "step ahead" of population growth, meant that there was always a shortage of labour to exploit those new resources, resulting naturally in the transformation to a capitalist system. Now we are going backwards, into the age of resource scarcity and a huge surplus of free labour, and all signs point to a return of some form of feudal rule (masses of serfs governed by a tiny elite).
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 13:11:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '[')Once the inevitable collapse of capitalism happens, under environmental and resource scarcity, I believe we'll see a return to many of the old forms of social rule.

I don't see a collapse of capitalism as being remotely likely much less inevitable. Certain of the hybrids as you call them may well collapse under the weight of the debts they have taken on but what remains will be capitalist in function whether it be kingdom, dictatorship, tribe or corporate monopoly.


Personally I am betting on a return to Feudalism where the 'upper' class defends the 'lower' class from outsiders in exchange for labor and production of necessities. Such systems date back as far as we have records be it Ancient China, Egypt, the Inca Empire or Europe. Most people want someone else to do the protecting and are willing to work hard to get that protection.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby Lore » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 14:04:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '[')Once the inevitable collapse of capitalism happens, under environmental and resource scarcity, I believe we'll see a return to many of the old forms of social rule.

I don't see a collapse of capitalism as being remotely likely much less inevitable. Certain of the hybrids as you call them may well collapse under the weight of the debts they have taken on but what remains will be capitalist in function whether it be kingdom, dictatorship, tribe or corporate monopoly.


Personally I am betting on a return to Feudalism where the 'upper' class defends the 'lower' class from outsiders in exchange for labor and production of necessities. Such systems date back as far as we have records be it Ancient China, Egypt, the Inca Empire or Europe. Most people want someone else to do the protecting and are willing to work hard to get that protection.


Feudalism is likely. I believe I mentioned this before in a previous post. Someone in authority will yet be needed to allocate and protect the scarce resources left to us. Possibly smaller fiefdoms of commerce for a short while until the devolution to tribal states. It's also true not everyone is cut out to be a warrior, no matter how bad ass they think they are are in some video game.

Capitalism will roll back quickly, no doubt, when the jig is up. Corporations will convulse and die as soon as their lines of credit, raw resources, labor, channels to goods, services and markets are severed. Add to this the collapse of infrastructure, population decline with displacement and almost all things having any intrinsic value based on a fiat system of monetary exchange.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby radon1 » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 14:06:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')I don't see a collapse of capitalism as being remotely likely much less inevitable. Certain of the hybrids as you call them may well collapse under the weight of the debts they have taken on but what remains will be capitalist in function whether it be kingdom, dictatorship, tribe or corporate monopoly.


How is it possible to earn return on capital in a closed static economic system? What kind of capitalism is this where there is no return on capital?
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby Quinny » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 18:43:27

I think resource shortage will inevitably lead to the collapse of capitalism because it is so wasteful of resources.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 22:18:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')I don't see a collapse of capitalism as being remotely likely much less inevitable. Certain of the hybrids as you call them may well collapse under the weight of the debts they have taken on but what remains will be capitalist in function whether it be kingdom, dictatorship, tribe or corporate monopoly.


How is it possible to earn return on capital in a closed static economic system? What kind of capitalism is this where there is no return on capital?

The downside of the peak oil curve will be just as dynamic as the upside was. The profit will come to those that use scarce energy more efficiently then their competition. Crops will still grow in the sunlight and carefully utilized raw materials will be made into products worth more then the parts and labor that went into them. Finding replacements that can do the work a barrel of oil can do will be hard but the best replacement that can be found no matter how inferior to oil will determine the cost and value of work done by that substitute and all other contenders
We have spent about a hundred years using our ingenuity to find more and better was to use oil. We will spend the next hundred trying to find ways to do the same jobs with something other then oil or other fossil fuels.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby Lore » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 22:38:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')I don't see a collapse of capitalism as being remotely likely much less inevitable. Certain of the hybrids as you call them may well collapse under the weight of the debts they have taken on but what remains will be capitalist in function whether it be kingdom, dictatorship, tribe or corporate monopoly.


How is it possible to earn return on capital in a closed static economic system? What kind of capitalism is this where there is no return on capital?

The downside of the peak oil curve will be just as dynamic as the upside was. The profit will come to those that use scarce energy more efficiently then their competition. Crops will still grow in the sunlight and carefully utilized raw materials will be made into products worth more then the parts and labor that went into them. Finding replacements that can do the work a barrel of oil can do will be hard but the best replacement that can be found no matter how inferior to oil will determine the cost and value of work done by that substitute and all other contenders
We have spent about a hundred years using our ingenuity to find more and better was to use oil. We will spend the next hundred trying to find ways to do the same jobs with something other then oil or other fossil fuels.


The topic here is in regards to GW, not the threat of PO. No amount of ingenuity left to us is going to make crops grow to feed the planet with too much sunshine in prolonged droughts, or for that matter too much water in floods. Capitalism will face climate reality.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 07 Jan 2014, 22:52:49

A modern capitalist system requires increasing credit to support increasing production and consumption of resources, both of which take place because of competition. Credit increases further through financial speculation.

Efficiency can lead to lower consumption of resources but that is eventually offset by both increasing credit and production.

Competition may be removed through a monopoly, but increasing human population and resource demand per capita, not to mention damage to resources due to pollution and global warming, will still need to more demand for credit, resources, and energy.

Of all predicaments, it is global warming coupled with environmental damage that will take its toll on that system.

Given that, capitalism is obviously not sustainable, until at least population drops, the environment is healed, the effects of global warming diminish, and more resources are made available so that the same problems can take place again.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 06:59:44

Economists have been obsessed with the need for growth for centuries. In all that time there has always been a growing population which was in fact the cause of the need for growth not some inherent flaw in the capitalistic economic system. When the population stops growing and indeed starts to decline where will there be a need for growth in the economy? Will not next years Christmas sales be just as good as last years sales if there are the same number of stockings to fill. Will not last years harvest be sufficient if there are the same or less mouths to feed?
Yes capitalism will face challenges ahead and it will win.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby Strummer » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 07:13:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'E')conomists have been obsessed with the need for growth for centuries. In all that time there has always been a growing population which was in fact the cause of the need for growth not some inherent flaw in the capitalistic economic system. When the population stops growing and indeed starts to decline where will there be a need for growth in the economy? Will not next years Christmas sales be just as good as last years sales if there are the same number of stockings to fill. Will not last years harvest be sufficient if there are the same or less mouths to feed?
Yes capitalism will face challenges ahead and it will win.


It's a big mistake to only look at the last 250 years of history and try to extrapolate from that. Agricultural civilization is 10,000 years old, and looking at the whole history gives you a much different picture.
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 07:18:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'E')conomists have been obsessed with the need for growth for centuries. In all that time there has always been a growing population which was in fact the cause of the need for growth not some inherent flaw in the capitalistic economic system. When the population stops growing and indeed starts to decline where will there be a need for growth in the economy? Will not next years Christmas sales be just as good as last years sales if there are the same number of stockings to fill. Will not last years harvest be sufficient if there are the same or less mouths to feed?
Yes capitalism will face challenges ahead and it will win.


It's a big mistake to only look at the last 250 years of history and try to extrapolate from that. Agricultural civilization is 10,000 years old, and looking at the whole history gives you a much different picture.

Care to give us an example?
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby Strummer » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 08:02:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'C')are to give us an example?


This book which was recommended recently on this forum (in this thread?) gives a very good overview:

http://www.amazon.com/Too-Smart-our-Own ... B007MXBNGS
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 09:23:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'C')are to give us an example?


This book which was recommended recently on this forum (in this thread?) gives a very good overview:

http://www.amazon.com/Too-Smart-our-Own ... B007MXBNGS

Not having that volume in my library I'm forced to resort to Wiki.
lokig at the history of agriculture I find this.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ollowing the introduction of the horse collar to Europe and its use being clearly evident by 1000 AD,[26] the use of horses for ploughing became more widespread. Horses work roughly 50 percent faster than oxen. With the collar, combined with the horseshoe, the heavy plow, and other developments in the agricultural system, the efficiency of the European peasant farmer in producing food increased, allowing further societal development in Europe.[27] The surplus in food allowed labor specialization as farmers could change their occupation and focus on other skills, such as the purchase and selling of goods, resulting in the emergence of a merchant class within European society. The horse collar was one of the factors in the ending of the feudal system and transition from the Middle Ages.[28]

So you have major change 1000 years ago and you can pretty much dismiss the 9000 years before that. The next big change was McCormick’s reaper and the cotton gin in the 1800s.
So what different picture do you see looking back past 250 years?
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Re: Global Warming and the End of Capitalism

Unread postby Pops » Wed 08 Jan 2014, 10:14:01

The goal of capitalism is not "continuous growth", it is continuous accumulation via private property, I never have figured out the whole bit about "continuous growth" outside of banking. Acquisition would still be the goal in a zero sum world and maybe even more important in a world where "wealth" and growth is negative.

You could cut off all the ff energy and shutter all the banks tomorrow and the economy would go into freefall but the goal (after survival) would still be acquiring more, not "continuous growth". It might only mean more rutabagas in the root cellar, but the natural tendency is then more rutabaga growing room, then more rutabaga tenders, etc.

Am I right that the folks who typically agitate for true communism are the folks from whom nothing would be taken in the great reshuffling? Whatever economic model is not to blame for the ills of the world, human's penchant for acquisition and finding an "easier way" perhaps is.

Perhaps there were people once upon a time who didn't compete with each other for resources. I think it likely their populations were kept in check by other means that precluded the need for direct competition. What we idolize as idyllic from our antibiotic disinfected couches (cracks stuffed with stale cheese doodles) was maybe not so. In the end, the proof of the success of that strategy in a "modern" population pressured world is in how many of those folks are left.

So is GW going to end capitalism? I think it's hardly likely, I've mentioned all the billions made just as a result of Katrina and Sandy. There is lots of money to be made repairing broken windows.
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