[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', 'O')k, now I understand.

We won't have oil, so we can't work metal, keep the hydro plants going, do any farming, etc, etc..

We won't have charcoal, so we won't be able to even cook our food if we had any.

We won't have any form of transport except for feet.

We're all gonna die!!! Oh, no!

I wish you wouldn't have explained it so clearly.

[Ebyss]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', 'O')k, now I understand.

We won't have oil, so we can't work metal, keep the hydro plants going, do any farming, etc, etc..

We won't have charcoal, so we won't be able to even cook our food if we had any.

We won't have any form of transport except for feet.

[heyhoser]

Seriously, Hawkcreek and Tanada. Look beyond our immediate communities and view this aspect in global terms. I think only the most die-hard doomers are advocating serious dieoff. Most of us are saying, "Hmm, that sure is a lot of oil we're using to produce all this CRAP. A lot of the stuff we have now won't be available in the near (?) future."
How much production will we lose-and what will be more important to keep than to lose?
Obvioulsy our transit system will be hardest hit, so how will this play into our global manufacturing capability?

Someone's going to go hungry.

[Sunspot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', 'O')k, now I understand.

We won't have oil, so we can't work metal, keep the hydro plants going, do any farming, etc, etc..

We won't have charcoal, so we won't be able to even cook our food if we had any.

We won't have any form of transport except for feet.

We're all gonna die!!! Oh, no!

I wish you wouldn't have explained it so clearly.

[blackaddr]

I always thought i was a doom and gloom type of PO'er but predicting the end of our ability to forge metal?? or at least falling back from the steal age into the bronze age I think is taking things a bit far...... surely as long as there is a tree left standing from which we can derive charcoal we will beable to forge metal???

To be sure I dont know how hot charcoal fires get, so I might be way off the mark and too radical for the pure PO'ers here.

[Ebyss]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('blackaddr', 'I') always thought i was a doom and gloom type of PO'er but predicting the end of our ability to forge metal?? or at least falling back from the steel age into the bronze age I think is taking things a bit far...... surely as long as there is a tree left standing from which we can derive charcoal we will beable to forge metal???

[Leanan]

I'm not saying we'll lose our ability to forge metal. The Japanese did it, the Syrians did it, the Inca did it, of course we'll do it.

What I'm saying is we will lose our ability to forge it to the tolerances required by bike frames.

As for charcoal...it probably won't run out. But it will be very scarce. This is a problem that faced pre-industrial Europe and China, and is still a problem in many parts of the world right now. (And their population densities are lower than ours.) There are too many people, and not enough trees. We won't all be able to heat our homes and cook our food with wood (or charcoal).

Easter Island used to be covered by a dense rain forest. There are no trees at all now, just grass and a few shrubs. The trees were all cut down by the people, probably mostly for firewood. This kind of deforestation was exacerbated by the island's isolation, but you can see it going on all over the world today.

[Terran]

In the future there will be alot of bikes, remember we invented a bike before we invented cars. I don't see bikes to be as high quality as bikes today, look at some of the materials used to make bikes today....titanium, aluminium, and lightweight alloys. Those are extreamly energy intensive to manufacture, and most likely all of the lightweight alloys would go off towards military aircraft in resource wars.

There is the bikes made out of steel, they're a bit more bulky and heavy though, but it's better than living without a bike.

Someone could modifly a bike as well, why not put a 12v car battery, and a small motor to help assist you while going up hills, or while carrying cargo, then once the battery is out recharge it with solar PV panals.

Private transportation will still be around but it's only limited to the really rich, even 100 years from now there will still be oil flowing out of the ground, but only a small fraction of what we use today. Or you'll see a few of those fuel cell cars around, if the rich can afford it then there you go.

[MicroHydro]

Leanan, have to disagree big time. Bicycles rule over horses. Horses are expensive as all heck because you need a lot of pasture to feed them. Only rich people can own horses. Bicycles have greater range, even across unpaved land. And as many posters have mentioned, there are many low tech bicycle designs possible. Rubber pneumatic tires are nice, but you can ride without them. The US Army was planning to replace the horse cavalry with bicycles right before motorized transport was invented. Strongly recommend this great documentary, you can buy it from the Montana PBS website or get your library to order it:

Bicycle Corps: America's Black Army On Wheels

This program tells the story of the 25th Infantry's bicycle trip from Missoula to St. Louis, Mo. in 1897. The African American infantry took the trip to test a theory that the bicycle could replace the horse in transporting men for the army. By means of archival film, photographs and interviews with historians, the program also examines the life of one African American soldier in particular, First Sgt. Mingo Sanders, who was the enlisted men's chief motivator.

First Aired Sunday, December 19, 1999

http://www.montanapbs.org/BicycleCorpsA ... yOnWheels/

[OilyMon]

What good will bikes be if the energy to maintain the roads is not available. I know you can pedal over dirt paths, and take to doing so frequently myself, but I need a very sturdy and large tired bicycle to do so. I guess if the roads were used enough they would turn into dirt paths suitable for bikes....

Mineral smelting should be of no problem after the larger process of the peak has passed. The problem will be minerals. Most of the minerals we extract today were formed, like oil, in deposits during a particular period of geological history. Granted there are enormous amounts of scattered molecules of almost every metal in just a handful of soil but the purification energy required would be enormous. We've mined all the easy to extract iron/tin/gold etc from the few places that geological forces forced it to the surface and require the aid of complex energy intensive machines to extract the remaining reserves. Peak iron anyone?

[johnmarkos]

This thread takes as a premise that cars are a virus: they are the most wasteful characteristic of modern society. Rather than debating the pros and cons of the private automobile, I would like to discuss steps that can be taken to eliminate it. What are possible alternatives to the private automobile and what can be done to make people feel they need to drive less?

IMO, solutions will come in two categories.

1. Making people feel less "need" to travel. We can debate endlessly whether people actually need to go somewhere or not. Nonetheless, it is evident that people feel a desire to make trips for work and for personal reasons. What can be done to make people feel they need to travel less often. Here are some examples of possible solutions like this.

A. Improve telecommuting software so that people can do all of their work from home.
B. Allow people to send their children to schools that are really local, i.e. within walking distance.
C. Create shopping co-ops that make it so that one person can do all of the grocery shopping for a neighborhood.

2. New forms of transportation that allow people to get from place to place with less ecological footprint. Examples of this might be:

A. A better bicycle: eliminating the private automobile would make the bicycle safer. The next thing to do would be to make it easier to take cargo or kids on a bike. More standardized trailers would help with this. Also, some form of power assist might make bicycling more popular.
B. Better public transit. I live in the densely populated city of San Francisco, which has commuter rail, a municipal railway, and an extensive bus system. However, if I want to get across town without using a car, it's faster to bicycle than it is to take transit. This doesn't make sense. Public transit needs to be expanded to meet people's needs.
C. A small, cheap car alternative. Some sort of golf cart like device might be an acceptable car alternative for some. This would have to be small and efficient enough to not be just another car.
D. What about something like the Segway? When I first heard about the Segway, I thought it sounded pretty silly. However, if we are looking at the Segway not as an alternative to walking but as an alternative to driving, maybe it (or something like it) makes sense for some people.

Another solution to the car conundrum might be: increase the cost of dense energy (i.e. petroleum) so that people do not see cars as a tempting alternative to more efficient forms of transportation. I see this price increase as a positive effect of PO

How to eliminate the private automobile--Poll ended at 23 Nov 2005, 10:44
Better public transit! That will draw people out of their cars. 8 22%
The humble bicycle -- the most efficient way to get around. 5 14%
A new technology that hasn't been invented yet. 1 3%
Market forces will take care of it. 4 11%
Better urban planning and tax penalties/incentives. 12 32%
We should not eliminate the private automobile. Cars are good. 7 19%
Total votes : 37

[oowolf]

Produce more of your own needs.
Reduce debt; less debt means less work=less driving
Internet definitely-most of my income is internet connected
Get rid of car altogether=massive $$$ savings.
Learn to plan ahead; 2 trips to grocery store/year instead of 2-3 times/day
Attitude that no-car=freedom. (exactly the opposite of what "they" want you to believe.
These helped me achieve car-freedom in 1997. And in rural Montana you're on your own without a rig.
Note; some Mennonites just moved near here and reopened the old general store that had been closed for 20 years--and most of their goods, including produce, is CHEAPER than in the big box store in the county seat!!! Go, anabaptists, go!!

[Claudia]

Hey, good thread -- if you don't mind I'll link the Segway thread here in case anyone has practical experience with one that they'd like to share.

Segway

I lived in perfect happiness without a car until age 32. I hate cars. Walking/bicycling is possible for most people -- but not all. Going to a no-car society is most likely to succeed if you include a viable plan for people who physically can't ride a bike or walk around town. I like the Segway, which seems to work for some people in that situation.

I also like the idea of tiny little pod-like vehicles that run at 10 mph, just around town. That would work if the roads weren't full of SUV's.

[Wildwell]

How about making them unfashionable? lol

TBH Even I don't want them banned, however bad they are. I certainly like driving them, but am acutely aware of their downside.

Promotional of their sensible use would be better. But that's rather like the sensible use of drugs, alcohol, cream cake and junk food - easier said than done.

The best way would be to have car free zones and towns. Fashionable places based around sports, walking, local business and low footprint transport like light rail. Localised food and goods production where possible too.

Bit of imagination might do it, but I sense banks and developers are too chicken to take the risk, give it 5 or 10 years.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'T')he best way would be to have car free zones and towns.

[Claudia]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he best way would be to have car free zones and towns.

[Tyler_JC]

And where do you plan on doing with the suburbanites? For the purposes of this little 10 question post, we=suburbanites.

1.We are going to need trains and buses in order to get to work.

2.We are going to need jobs that involve something other than expanding the sprawl.

3.We are going to need a way of sending our children to school.

4.We are going to need a way to get to the malls and transport our good back home.

5.We are going to need a way to get transport children who aren't old enough to walk or bike to soccer practice.

6.We are going to need a new model for a street layout that allows us to get out of our side streets without becoming hopelessly lost.

7.We are going to need a way to get to medical centers in an emergency.

8.We are going to need to move all of the important buildings (town officies, post office, police+fire stations) into a central locations

9.We are going to need a different model for our houses that allows small scale farming and wood harvesting.

10.And lastly, We are going to need another justification for living (jk, ).

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat are possible alternatives to the private automobile and what can be done to make people feel they need to drive less?

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow to eliminate the private automobile