[ROCKMAN]

Happy Holidays, John. I actually greatly enjoyed teaching newbie years ago. Nothing like having a captive audience. LOL. But now I can train or make my owner a sh*t load of money. Don't have time for both. LOL. At 62 yo and declining health this is definitely my last boom. I just hopes it last long enough until the sweet release of death frees me. Damn...that's a little dark for the season but I'm on my third brandy and I tend to get that way. LOL. But needed the relief: that sidetrack was a pain in the ass and ran over AFE. And it was far from a sure thing. So had to put my ass on the line. So even if I had a couple of skilled newbie I would have still spent the night in the logging truck. And I really do like it there. Also works well with the control freak in me. LOL.

[davep]

Joyeux Noel from Burgundy, where a storm destroyed our chicken coops and left us without electricity on Christmas eve. I knew those preps would come in handy one day. It was quite fun by the log fire with the kerosene lamp. Less fun for the chickens no doubt, but they're OK now.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'J')oyeux Noel from Burgundy, where a storm destroyed our chicken coops and left us without electricity on Christmas eve. I knew those preps would come in handy one day. It was quite fun by the log fire with the kerosene lamp. Less fun for the chickens no doubt, but they're OK now.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '
')Happy Christmas from Ireland, we're preparing for a stormy night here.
Tomorrow morning could be interesting!

[ROCKMAN]

Dolan - Saw that S. England caught to nasty floods. Is that what's coming at you? Cold is bad enough...cold and wet so much worse.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'D')olan - Saw that S. England caught to nasty floods. Is that what's coming at you? Cold is bad enough...cold and wet so much worse.

[Quinny]

Flooding in Brittany has been bad. Arrived at work on Xmas Eve and got sent home as factory was under water. Although it was difficult for victims it was pretty spectacular to see the power of the water! Expecting another storm tonight. Greenhouse ended up on top of duck house as well

[dolanbaker]

Hope you and your's stay OK, this weather pattern has still to play out, we are curently in the eye of the storm at the moment.


So far no serious damage or injuries that I know of, hope it stays that way.

Regards


Dolanbaker

[ROCKMAN]

Q - Good luck. Having had to wade thru flood waters 3 times in my life I can appreciate.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'H')appy holidays all from Iberville Parish, La. Often our topics can be a tad depressing. But this should be a happier time of the year so here's an opportunity to pass along more cheerful thoughts. Dealers choice so have at it..

I'm in good mood despite sitting on a cold and muddy we'll site watching my hands hook up my second Christmas tree this season: the well head "tree". We'll spend the next few days perforating and completing the well. Hopefully be giving my owner a nice oily Xmas present.

[ROCKMAN]

Sub - Actually better (so far) than I predicted. It was a thin NG sand that cost twice as much to complete (very difficult conditions). What I wasn't counting on was the oil yield... right now looking like 100 bopd. With that we might payout in less than 10 months despite the fact La. takes 1/8 of the oil for severance tax.

But I'll take the occasion to point out that despite the economic success this well truly represents those bottom of the barrel scrappings we talk about. About 30 years ago many companies wouldn't have completed it let alone drill for it in the first place. So yes...very good news for the Rockman yearend bonus wise. For the consumers...not so much. Often I'm not so much in the exploration biz but more into salvage. But having been a production geologist most of my career I have always considered myself a proud bottom feeder. LOL. My other big success of the year: making a 150 bopd well in the middle of a field everyone thought was depleted. In fact I was repeatedly told my idea was stupid and has no chance of working. And now I can't even go back and throw it in their face since I told them exactly how to do it. Don't want them to go after the other fields in the trend while we're picking up those leases. It is a very profitable salvage op but salvage none the less: producing oil from fields discovered in the 1940's...before this old geologist was born.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')But I'll take the occasion to point out that despite the economic success this well truly represents those bottom of the barrel scrappings we talk about. About 30 years ago many companies wouldn't have completed it let alone drill for it in the first place. So yes...very good news for the Rockman yearend bonus wise. For the consumers...not so much. Often I'm not so much in the exploration biz but more into salvage. But having been a production geologist most of my career I have always considered myself a proud bottom feeder. LOL. My other big success of the year: making a 150 bopd well in the middle of a field everyone thought was depleted. In fact I was repeatedly told my idea was stupid and has no chance of working. And now I can't even go back and throw it in their face since I told them exactly how to do it. Don't want them to go after the other fields in the trend while we're picking up those leases. It is a very profitable salvage op but salvage none the less: producing oil from fields discovered in the 1940's...before this old geologist was born.

[ROCKMAN]

Sub - That's pretty much how I view it. I'm sure some folks still don't believe me but exploration for oil/NG is a magnitude easier today then it was 30 years ago...from a technical standpoint. All those wells we drilled for $400 million chasing deep NG seismic bright spots would not have been drilled 20 years ago...not one of those wells. I'm shooting 3d seismic in Alabama right now chasing the Smackover Limestone play. About 30 years go I chased this same oil play. If you were real good and very lucky you might have a 20% chance of making a well. Now it's more like 50% - 70%.

But even with the higher success rate we'll still looking at onshore targets that are only 1/3 the size or less than they were 30 years ago. We have a much higher success rate thanks to technology. But the onshore targets that remain are few and smaller. We do have very large oil fields in the Deep Water GOM that aren't as easy to identify as the onshore prospects but not terribly difficult either. But we have advanced drilling and production technology now that we didn't have 20+ years ago. Then add $100/bbl oil and the DW GOM is a no brainer.

And now the shales: we all knew about the oil/NG in the shales many decades go. And we were very good at frac'ng horizontal wells in fractured reservoirs over 20 years ago. What we have now that we didn't have 2 decades ago is $90+/bbl oil. There is nothing happening in the Eagle Ford, Bakken et al that I couldn't have predicted long ago had you asked what would happen if oil bounced around $100/bbl. As I've pointed out many times the horizontally drilled and frac'd Austin Chalk was the hottest oil play on the planet almost 20 years ago. It eventually covered more than 5X the areal extent of the current Eagle Ford play. And it boomed for the very same reasons as the current shale plays: higher oil prices and a desperate lack of conventional prospects. I don't fault some folks for thinking some new revolution in the oil patch has occurred. It hasn't: it's the same bull shit dynamics I've personally dealt with for the last 38 years. And the same bull shit dynamics my predecessors dealt with for the 30 previous years. The bump from higher oil prices isn't a new angle. I started in 1975 just before those boom times. And what about NG prices in 1975? It was already booming: $.50/mcf. Boom you say? Yep...a 500% increase over what it was selling for not that many years earlier. Folks think this latest boom has caused a surge in drilling...1,800 rigs? Ha! I laugh on them! In the late 70's we had 4,500+ running.

It does tickle me sometimes to watch some folks become so exited thinking that something new and unique is going on today. There's some minor differences but nothing significant. Almost 40 years ago public companies were throwing big bucks at marginal plays just like what's going on now. Companies were stretching out as far as engineering allowed us in the late 70's: I drilled a few wells off a platform set in the deepest water depths at the time: 600'. And justified it the same way we justify drilling in 6,000' water today: higher oil prices. Folks think the economy took a massive hit from the high oil prices in 2008...let them pull a few history books and check out the mid 80': they'll see what a real crash looks like. So bad even the oil patch was knocked to it's knees.

As they say: everything old is new again.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', ' ')It does tickle me sometimes to watch some folks become so exited thinking that something new and unique is going on today. There's some minor differences but nothing significant. Almost 40 years ago public companies were throwing big bucks at marginal plays just like what's going on now. Companies were stretching out as far as engineering allowed us in the late 70's: I drilled a few wells off a platform set in the deepest water depths at the time: 600'. And justified it the same way we justify drilling in 6,000' water today: higher oil prices. Folks think the economy took a massive hit from the high oil prices in 2008...let them pull a few history books and check out the mid 80': they'll see what a real crash looks like. So bad even the oil patch was knocked to it's knees.

As they say: everything old is new again.

[ROCKMAN]

Sub - This will require some assumptions. If it were a conventional water drive oil reservoir the use of horizontal well bores would allow higher rates and probably better ultimate recovery. Lifting methods have improved especially in terms of efficiency but aren't game changers. Not only would the new 3d seismic data make finding such a field easier it would also eliminate a lot of unsuccessful development wells in a new discovery. But I'll also point out that I've seen about as many potential prospects killed as I've seen generated by such data. Depending upon the trend a huge amount of respect is given such data. I've seen many operators refuse to even review a prospect if there wasn't 3d data across it.

Unconventional reservoirs are a different animal. And the question isn't theoretical: check out Al Shaheen Field http://www.maerskoil.com/global-operati ... qatar.aspx
This is a huge tight chalk reservoir. Not unlike the Austin Chalk trend in Texas that was the hottest oil play on the planet in the 90's.

"Appraisal wells in the field were completed in 1994, along with the acquisition, processing and interpretation of 2D and 3D seismic data. Maersk Oil's horizontal well technology has been utilised since 1994, drilling wells up to 31,000ft in length. Production facilities were extended in 1995-96 with new subsea export pipelines, an additional single-point mooring loading buoy, new process facilities and a STAR-type wellhead platform. 2003 figures estimated reserves of about 780 million barrels of oil. The facilities were expanded in 2004, following further development plans in 1996 and 2001, with three additional platform locations."

I think they've actually drilled out to about 35,000' horizontally by now. Compare that 5,000' Eagle Ford laterals some consider very long. Some years ago I was offered a contract to be one of the 12 geosteering geologist's working for Maersk. But the link points out one of the hurdles to rapidly developing a new big discovery: political control. Qatar decided they didn't want to put as much production into the market place as Maersk was planning. The first phase I was to be involved with was going to have 6 jackup rigs drilling 900 wells. It was not to be. Not due to lack of technology but a lack of gov't permission.