[ROCKMAN]

Yeah…best I could find was that 12 year old report so you have to jump into your Wayback Machine to appreciate. Simple words then:

Floridians: Offshore FL drilling bad. Burning hydrocarbons in FL produced from offshore Texas, LA, AL and MS good.

Texans et al: Drilling offshore Texas et al good…makes them money. Drilling offshore FL bad…adds production reducing prices and their royalty cut.

Oil companies: drilling offshore Texas, La, Al, MS and FL good…obviously

DC politicians: Leasing offshore FL bad if done before elections...bad. Leasing offshore FL if one isn’t running for reelection and doesn’t care about the Electoral College..good. Leasing offshore Texas, LA, AL and MS good because of income to the govt and makes many of the voters in those states happy.

And for tomorrow’s lesson we work on the number “3”. LOL. I’ve no doubt you and everyone else here appreciates the politics of the situation. When was the last time you heard of any politician banning offshore leasing as a Republican (Bush One) did about 25 years ago? When oil and NG were cheap and FL votes were very valuable. Even when the current POTUS banned drilling for a short period after Macondo he didn’t ban leasing. In fact, since then he’s offered over 100 million offshore acres for lease and approved hundreds of drill permits out there. Bottom line IMHO: it never has been and never will be about energy…it will always be about getting elected. Once we had an R POTUS banning offshore drilling and now a very "green" D POTUS is doing everything he can to advance the importation of Canadian oil sands production, expand offshore leasing/drilling and exporting high sulfur coal from govt lands. There is only one true ideology in our political system IMHO: getting elected.

[AirlinePilot]

Although there is no definitive claim yet, BP announced a significant discovery in the Gila area about 300 miles SW of New Orleans.

Depth of 4900' and almost 30,000 feet down in well depth. UNBELIEVABLE.

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/12/18/bp-a ... discovery/

Can anyone say scraping the bottom of the barrel???

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A')lthough there is no definitive claim yet, BP announced a significant discovery in the Gila area about 300 miles SW of New Orleans.

Depth of 4900' and almost 30,000 feet down in well depth. UNBELIEVABLE.

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/12/18/bp-a ... discovery/

Can anyone say scraping the bottom of the barrel???

[ROCKMAN]

ap - “The Gila exploration well, about 300 miles southwest of New Orleans, is in nearly 5,000 feet of water and has total depth of more than 29,000 feet, pushing the boundaries of the latest offshore drilling technology with its high pressure and high temperature conditions.”

Not really. Last DW GOM well I sat for Devon 5 years ago drilled to 34,000’ with no problems other than it was a $148 million dry hole. LOL. The pressures and temperatures weren’t anywhere close to any boundary: I was drilling wells with much high bottom hole pressures and temperatures 20+ years ago. The boundaries that have been pushed for the last 20 years is the water depths and not the down hole conditions. I wouldn’t call those reserves “the bottom of the barrel” either. Depending upon whose numbers you believe the DW GOM oil reserves are some of the most lucrative fields developed in the US for many decades. The only reason they weren’t developed 40+ years ago when the other major US fields were brought on was the lack of technology to work in those water depths.

But just like those major oil conventional onshore trends that were tapped out long ago so will the DW GOM in the not too distant future. And current DW GOM production won’t last for decades as those old onshore fields did: the operational costs in the DW are just too high to support much lower production rates. Most DW fields have a commercial life of just 7+ years. Onshore US oil production peaked over 40 years ago. Peak DW GOM oil isn’t that far away IMHO.

Just to beat up a bit more on the hype about temperature and pressures “boundaries” we are banging up against in those DW GOM wells: The deepest well drilled in the U.S. onshore still remains the Lone Star No. 1 Bertha Rogers, which was completed in 1974 to a depth of 31,441 feet in Beckham County, Okla. So almost 40 years ago they drilled a well more than 2,000' deeper than the new BP discovery. I’ll also point out that the #1 Rogers encountered much high pressures and temperatures then any DW GOM has encountered so far.

I think the hype has come from some folks inadvertently letting BP off the hook a bit for the Macondo blow out. I’ve probably been involved in drilling more than 50 wells drilled in my career with more severe conditions the BP encountered. And that include offshore GOM wells drilled almost 4 decades ago. The Macondo blow out didn’t happen as a result of high pressure and temp. It happened because BP used a very risky procedure and then failed to monitor activities properly.

So no….there’s nothing unbelievable about the new BP discovery.

[AirlinePilot]

Well I didnt mean "really" unbelievalbe. More just an exclamation of awe at what we do..and have been doing. I WOULD be interested to know the amounts if and when they start reporting them.

And yeah I will stick with the scraping the barrel idea personally. We will be relying on a lot more of this high risk stuff to keep production up. will be interesting to follow this one.

[rockdoc123]

Rockman

I need to point out that the GOM deepwater P&T issue is a bit of a joke in comparison to what has already been cracked in the UK/Norwegian North Sea and part of SE Asia where high temperature and high pressure are the norm. It generally isn't a problem in the GOM in comparison.
It is nasty business but doable at, of course, higher cost and risk mitigation expense.

[ROCKMAN]

Not big new news but just shows that China recognizes where the big plums remain...Deep Water. It will be interesting to see how China factors into Deep Water México now that they are trying to change their rules: Technip announced that the company and China Offshore Oil Engineering Co. Ltd (COOEC), the largest offshore engineering and construction company in China, have signed an joint-venture agreement. The five-year agreement combines the know-how, technical resources, complementary assets as well as commercial and financial capabilities of both companies to target deepwater engineering, procurement, construction and installation.

[sparky]

.
@ airline pilot

For conventional oil , the bottom of the barrel is probably located in the Wendell sea , offshore Antarctica
it make drilling in the arctic sound like a picnic

It's got deep trenches ,horrendous weather , remoteness , sea ice and massive iceberg calving .
I'm pretty sure it's on someone list

[ROCKMAN]

Looks like the kiwis want to increase their share of the hydrocarbon pie: Petroleum E&P New Zealand plans for exploration offshore New Zealand.

The Great South Basin joint venture parties Shell New Zealand, OMV New Zealand Ltd and Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd will drill an exploration well off the southern, east coast of the South Island. From the leader of the pack: “Unlocking the petroleum potential in the Great South Basin could provide real benefits to not only local communities, but to our country as a whole. We just need to look towards the impact the oil and gas industry has had on Taranaki to know that the economic benefits of growing the industry are significant. The expansion of the oil and gas industry in Taranaki has seen the local economy grow by 46.9 percent over 4 years, making the region the largest growing economy in New Zealand.”

“Strong regional economies mean more jobs, better wages, career opportunities and local investment. It is important that we create the success we see in Taranaki across other regions in New Zealand, and we hope the decision to drill an exploration well in the Great South Basin will be the start of sharing the oil and gas industry’s success with other regions around the country. It is not just local communities that benefit. Nationwide we already employ 7,500 kiwis nationwide and have contributed over $3.3 billion (NZD 4 billion) to date. This helps to pay for schools, hospitals and social services across the country”.

“Taranaki is a picturesque region, and a standing example of a region that has both thriving oil and gas industry and a pristine environment. As a country we have a lot of economic potential to unlock – and some of that potential is in growing the oil and gas industry. Even though it takes approximately 10 years to fully develop a producing well, a decision to drill is the first step in ensuring benefits will flow locally and nationally and that is good news for Kiwis everywhere,” David Robinson said.

[sparky]

.
There has been sismic exploration from off Sydney beaches all the way up to the great barrier reef
The politics are toxic

[ROCKMAN]

sparky - looks like there isn't much interest in drilling the reef: It was suspected that the Great Barrier Reef is the cap to an oil trap, after a 1923 paper suggested that it had the right rock formation to support "oilfields of great magnitude". After the Commonwealth Petroleum Search Subsidies Act of 1957, exploration activities increased in Queensland, including a well drilled at Wreck Island in the southern Great Barrier Reef in 1959. In the 1960s, drilling for oil and gas was investigated throughout the Great Barrier Reef, by seismic and magnetic methods in the Torres Strait, along "the eastern seaboard of Cape York to Princess Charlotte Bay" and along the coast from Cooktown to Fraser Island. In the late 1960s, more exploratory wells were drilled near Wreck Island in the Capricorn Channel, and near Darnley Island in the Torres Strait, but "all results were dry".

In 1970, responding to concern about oil spills such as the Torrey Canyon, two Royal Commissions were ordered "into exploratory and production drilling for petroleum in the area of the Great Barrier Reef". After the Royal Commissions, the federal and state governments ceased allowing petroleum drilling on the Great Barrier Reef. A study in 1990 concluded that the reef is too young to contain oil reserves. Oil drilling remains prohibited on the Great Barrier Reef, yet oil spills due to shipping routes are still a threat to the reef system, with a total of 282 oil spills between 1987-2002.

If you want to track such activity, especially Deep Wate drilling, you might want to save this site: http://www.offshore-mag.com/deepwater/a ... aland.html

Here’s a taste of the battle from 2011:

“A White House investigation … uncovered a culture of complacency, cost-cutting and systemic failures and companies unprepared to deal with accidents and consequences.” That was how ABC News on January 18 summed up the findings of the US inquiry into last year’s disaster at BP’s Deepwater Horizon oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico. The explosion caused 11 deaths, and unleashed the worst accidental marine oil spill in history. About 4.9 million barrels of oil escaped over nearly three months before the well was capped. So, wouldn’t you like to have the oil corporation responsible for that disaster drilling a seabed near you? Starting with seismic exploration next summer, that is what South Australians are about to see in the Great Australian Bight.

Last January, BP was awarded permits to seek oil and gas in an area the size of Wales more than 600 kilometres south-west of Port Lincoln. Waters in the lease are as deep as 4600 metres, three times the depth in which the Deepwater Horizon suffered its blowout. Unlike the mostly placid seas off Louisiana, the Great Australian Bight features constant large swells. Waves in the fiercest storms reach as high as 16 metres. On July 8, further permits were awarded to the Adelaide-based firm Bight Petroleum to explore and drill off the west coast of Kangaroo Island.

Geologists have known for decades that oil and gas are likely to lie beneath the Bight waters. Bitumen has been found washed up on Bight shores, and a Geoscience Australia survey completed in February 2009 saw organic-rich rocks dredged from the seabed. Bight Petroleum on its website likens the area to the oil-rich Niger delta in West Africa. Over the years various firms have drilled some ten exploration wells, mostly in shallow water. In 1993, BHP’s Greenly 1 well, now in Bight Petroleum’s permit area, showed encouraging traces of oil and gas. Further west, Woodside Petroleum in 2003 drilled to 4000 metres before huge seas forced it to abandon its work.

After finishing its seismic mapping, BP is expected to move to drill several wells in 2013 and 2014, using a floating rig similar to the Deepwater Horizon. The April 5 Adelaide Advertiser looked forward to the Bight becoming “a major oil and gas reserve for Australia, with a 100 million barrel field, worth $10 billion.”nEnvironmentalists in South Australia are not so starry-eyed. BP’s exploration permits intersect the Great Australian Bight Marine Park, which the Conservation Council of South Australia describes as having “the greatest diversity of marine life anywhere in the world, with up to 90% … found nowhere else.”

[toolpush]

G'day Rockman,

I was actually on the Greenly well in the Bight many moons ago. There had only been 3 wells drilled in the hole basin at that time, and the formations tops just refused to comply to the seismic. We kept drilling through thin oil filed sands, but no thick ones. We even took a kick. We were ready to POOH, then we were told to drill ahead. We only did a metre then a change of orders, POOH. No we didn't circulate bottoms up and unfortunately we drilled in to one of those thin sands. The rest you know. I good lesson to learn while derrickman.
It was a farce at the end of the well, one partner wanted to drill past TD, the other didn't. On the rig floor it was wait on orders, drill ahead, wait, drill. Oops nobody has insurance, Plug & abandon.
I am sure with better seismic and better information to correlate with there should be able to something there, I am surprised it has taken this long to get back to it.

As for drilling off Sydney, there has been talk about it for a while. A small exploration company has been trying to raise money to drill a gas prospect. I have not heard too much complaining, but I just don't think they have the money. Though about 100 holes were drilled 3 miles off Sydney heads by the Sedco 600 in 1987/88, but they were for a sewrage scheme. Now that was good job, 5 stands to TD, and drilling 60", 48" and 36" holes.

Drilling on the Barrier reef, forget it.

[ROCKMAN]

Pusher – Once again the strength of this site shows up: a wide range of experiences. The really big change in the last 20 years has been on the seismic side. Especially getting more stratigraphic info from the data. Maybe that’s what they’re trying to do now: find the sand dumps where some real money can be made…if they exist at all. Two years ago we drilled a well in S. La. and found no sand at the target. But used the well data to recalibrate the seismic. Sidetracked the hole 400’ from the original hole and found a 180’ pay sand. Less distance than a football field made the difference between $0 and $60 million. In the Deep Water GOM chasing those turbidite deposits sand thickness can go from a few tens of feet to 500’+ in just 1,000’ laterally.

[dashster]

This EIA article says "increasing" and refers to 2005 versus 2015, but it appears that 2015 was no higher than 2010.


Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Rystad Energy
Note: Includes lease condensate and hydrocarbon gas liquids.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal offshore oil production (including lease condensate and hydrocarbon gas liquids) from deepwater projects reached 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015. Deepwater production, or production in water of depths greater than 125 meters, has increased 25% from nearly 7 million b/d a decade ago. Shallow water has been relatively less expensive and less technically challenging for operators to explore and drill, but changing economics and the exhaustion of some shallow offshore resources has helped to push producers to deepwater or, in some areas, ultra deepwater (at depths of 1,500 meters or more) resources. The share of offshore production from shallow water in 2015 was 64%, the lowest on record.
Globally, offshore oil production accounted for about 30% of total oil production over the past decade. In 2015, offshore production was 29% of total global production, a moderate decrease from 32% in 2005.
Advancements in drilling technology, dynamic positioning equipment, and floating production and drilling units have made prospects viable that were previously unreachable. Although technological advancements have made new areas accessible, deepwater projects require more investment and time compared to shallow waters or onshore developments. As a result, most nations with offshore assets operate only in shallow water.
In areas with deepwater operations, production has grown significantly, and in many cases overtaken shallow-water production. The majority of deepwater or ultra deepwater production occurs in four countries: Brazil, the United States, Angola, and Norway. Each of these countries has realized an increasing share of crude oil production from deepwater or ultra deepwater projects over the previous decade. The United States and Brazil together account for more than 90% of global ultra deepwater production, with ultra deepwater production expected to increase in 2016 and 2017 in both countries.

[Tanada]

Interesting data, what does it mean in your opinion?

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I')nteresting data, what does it mean in your opinion?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'P')rojecting DW GOM is trickier. Here's the yearly production since 1985.

https://www.data.bsee.gov/homepg/data_c ... ummary.asp

You'll see it plateaued around 2002 around 350 million to 450 million bbls per year. But the combination of relative short COMMERCIAL lives (6 to 8 years) and long lag times between discovery and first production makes projecting difficult. As a result it wouldn't be a surprise to see increased DW GOM oil production increase the next few years despite lower oil prices. Once $billions have already been spent companies will keep on schedule. Bottom line from 1985 to 2002 the DW GOM climbed an impressive Seneca Mountain from zero to 450+ million bbls of oil per year. Now on a plateau. Some DW projects early in their development phase could stall with the current lower oil price. But there's no detailed data available to make even a rough guess.

[ROCKMAN]

T - Sorry for the wait...had go out early this morning to look after a sick well.

Tried to find what % of the DW under lease with no luck. But not a very good metric anyway: there are many lease blocks in the DW that will NEVER BE LEASED for geologic reasons. But did find this from March 2015:

BOEM announced that its proposed GOM Lease Sale 246 would offer all available unleased areas in the Western GOM Planning Area for oil and gas activity. It will offer approximately 21.8 million acres located 9-250 miles offshore Texas in water depths ranging from 16 to more than 10, 975 feet. The BOEM estimates Lease Sale 246 to result in the production of 116-200 million barrels of oil and 538-938 billion cubic feet of natural gas.

And Sale 246 results:

Last year’s western gulf Lease Sale 246, the previous low point in activity, ended with 5 firms submitted 33 bids on 33 tracts (of the 4,000 tracts available) totaling $22.7 million in apparent high bids (OGJ Online, Aug. 19, 2015). It offered about 22 million acres.

And later sales:

Results published by the US BOEM indicate a new low in industry interest for western Gulf of Mexico lease sales. Just three firms submitted .There were 24 bids on 24 blocks (of the 4,399 blocks available) in Lease Sale 248. Bids totaled $18 million. The single highest bid came from ExxonMobil Corp., which targeted East Breaks Block 590 at $1.12 million. Drawing the fewest bids and lowest sum of high bids for a western gulf sale since regional sales began in 1983, Lease Sale 248 offered 4,399 tracts covering 23.8 million acres located 9-250 nautical miles offshore in up to 3,340 m of water.

And when oil prices were much higher:

Held during a month in which the Brent crude oil spot price averaged more than $100/bbl, western gulf Lease Sale 238 in 2014 saw 14 firms place 93 bids on 81 tracts, with a sum of apparent high bids at $110 million. It offered about 4,000 tracts covering 21.6 million acres.

Bottom line: when oil prices were averaging yearly record highs there were bids on only 81 tracts out of 4,000 available. That sounds like a good bit of tapering off. But despite what many folks think the Deep Water GOM is actually 31 years old. And we could be bearing GOM PO thanks to the DW trends:

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25012

"U.S. GOM crude oil production is estimated to increase to record high levels in 2017, even as oil prices remain low. EIA projects GOM production will average 1.63 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 and 1.79 million b/d in 2017, reaching 1.91 million b/d in December 2017. GOM production is expected to account for 18% and 21% of total forecast U.S. crude oil production in 2016 and 2017, respectively."

[ROCKMAN]

"I also know that off the coast of Florida in the GOM and along both the Atlantic and Pacific seaboards there has been relatively little drilling..."

Actually 56 wells have been drilled off the US east coast:

"Offshore drilling for oil and gas on the Atlantic coast of the United States took place from 1947 to the early 1980s. Oil companies drilled five wells in Atlantic Florida state waters and 51 exploratory wells on federal leases on the outer continental shelf of the Atlantic coast. None of the wells were completed as producing wells. All the leases have now reverted to the government."

The net result was a minimal amount of oil/NG source rocks were discovered. No oil/NG generated...not accumulations to hunt for.

And not much better luck from the 59 wells drilled off the west coast of FL:

The eastern Gulf of Mexico, which includes offshore Gulf Coast Florida, has never been a petroleum-producing area. From the 1950s to the 1990s, oil companies drilled exploratory wells off the Gulf Coast of Florida. Nineteen wells were drilled in state waters, and forty were drilled in federal waters.

Gulf Oil drilled the first offshore Florida oil exploration wells in 1947, in state waters in Florida Bay south of Cape Sable, Monroe County. In 1956 Humble Oil drilled an exploratory well in state waters of Pensacola Bay, Santa Rosa County. In 1959 Gulf Oil drilled the first offshore Florida well drilled from an offshore platform, off the Florida Keys. All the wells drilled in state waters were dry holes.

The first federal lease sale offshore Florida was in 1959. In the 1980s the state of Florida objected to further federal lease sales in offshore Florida, and the last one was held in 1985. Because of state objections, the federal government agreed to pay $200 million to nine oil companies to buy back leases south of 26 degrees north latitude.

In the 1970s and early 1980s, oil companies drilled 16 wells on and around the Destin Dome, in federal waters off the Florida Panhandle; none were successful. Then from 1987 to 1995 Chevron made commercial gas discoveries on the Destin Dome 25 miles off the coast. The discovery extended the Norphlet productive trend, which is highly productive in Alabama state waters in Mobile Bay. However, the state of Florida objected to plans to produce the deposits, and in May 2002, the US government agreed to buy back 7 leases from Chevron, Conoco, and Murphy Oil for $115 million.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;I also know that off the coast of Florida in the GOM and along both the Atlantic and Pacific seaboards there has been relatively little drilling..."

Actually 56 wells have been drilled off the US east coast:

"Offshore drilling for oil and gas on the Atlantic coast of the United States took place from 1947 to the early 1980s. Oil companies drilled five wells in Atlantic Florida state waters and 51 exploratory wells on federal leases on the outer continental shelf of the Atlantic coast. None of the wells were completed as producing wells. All the leases have now reverted to the government."

The net result was a minimal amount of oil/NG source rocks were discovered. No oil/NG generated...not accumulations to hunt for.

And not much better luck from the 59 wells drilled off the west coast of FL:

The eastern Gulf of Mexico, which includes offshore Gulf Coast Florida, has never been a petroleum-producing area. From the 1950s to the 1990s, oil companies drilled exploratory wells off the Gulf Coast of Florida. Nineteen wells were drilled in state waters, and forty were drilled in federal waters.

Gulf Oil drilled the first offshore Florida oil exploration wells in 1947, in state waters in Florida Bay south of Cape Sable, Monroe County. In 1956 Humble Oil drilled an exploratory well in state waters of Pensacola Bay, Santa Rosa County. In 1959 Gulf Oil drilled the first offshore Florida well drilled from an offshore platform, off the Florida Keys. All the wells drilled in state waters were dry holes.

The first federal lease sale offshore Florida was in 1959. In the 1980s the state of Florida objected to further federal lease sales in offshore Florida, and the last one was held in 1985. Because of state objections, the federal government agreed to pay $200 million to nine oil companies to buy back leases south of 26 degrees north latitude.

In the 1970s and early 1980s, oil companies drilled 16 wells on and around the Destin Dome, in federal waters off the Florida Panhandle; none were successful. Then from 1987 to 1995 Chevron made commercial gas discoveries on the Destin Dome 25 miles off the coast. The discovery extended the Norphlet productive trend, which is highly productive in Alabama state waters in Mobile Bay. However, the state of Florida objected to plans to produce the deposits, and in May 2002, the US government agreed to buy back 7 leases from Chevron, Conoco, and Murphy Oil for $115 million.