[savethehumans]

Deffeyes was Hubbert's protege. Maybe HE knows something? Anyone know how this guy could get ahold of him?

[tita]

Maybe a paper from Laherre presented at the last ASPO conference in Lisbon

ttp://www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom ... errere.pdf

[peaknik]

This is what you are looking for:

Our Petroleum Predicament

Originally a special editorial feature by GEORGE PAZIK Editor & Publisher, Fishing Facts, November 1976.

Very interesting read!

[2007]

The website 'oilcrisis' also has some links to Hubbert papers.

http://www.oilcrisis.com/hubbert/

[WebHubbleTelescope]

Transcribed article from mid-70's on Hubbert:
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2005/0 ... ament.html

[rowante]

Thanks, peaknik and WHT that was it!

[rowante]

It really blows my mind that that article was published the year I was born.

Web Hubble Telescope, did you get in contact with the author, is he still around?

[WebHubbleTelescope]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rowante', 'I')t really blows my mind that that article was published the year I was born.

Web Hubble Telescope, did you get in contact with the author, is he still around?

[chrispi]

I have found that using the Hubbert distribution to find the future price of oil yields three possibilities, if both human demand and oil supply follow Hubbert's distribution:

• The rate of population growth is equal to the rate of oil extraction. Then the price of oil follows an S shaped curve bounded above and below by finite limits, with the inflection point right around Peak Oil.
• The rate of population growth is greater than the rate of oil extraction. Then the price of oil follows a bell curve, getting ever more expensive until after Peak Oil, then getting cheaper again.
• The rate of population growth is less than the rate of oil extraction. Then the price of oil will fall exponentially until we reach Peak Oil, whereupon the price will rise exponentially.

I used the Mathematica program and its statistical packages. What do you think?

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', 'I') have found that using the Hubbert distribution to find the future price of oil yields three possibilities, if both human demand and oil supply follow Hubbert's distribution:

• The rate of population growth is equal to the rate of oil extraction. Then the price of oil follows an S shaped curve bounded above and below by finite limits, with the inflection point right around Peak Oil.
• The rate of population growth is greater than the rate of oil extraction. Then the price of oil follows a bell curve, getting ever more expensive until after Peak Oil, then getting cheaper again.
• The rate of population growth is less than the rate of oil extraction. Then the price of oil will fall exponentially until we reach Peak Oil, whereupon the price will rise exponentially.

I used the Mathematica program and its statistical packages. What do you think?

[chrispi]

It's a simple model, I know, but sometimes simplicity is best when capturing the essence of price behavior.

If you look at the historical chart for oil prices you'll find that they went down exponentially for most of the twentieth century, ignoring price spikes like the Iran Crisis and the like. This agrees with the last model, where pop growth < oil extraction, which suggests that the price of oil will skyrocket in the coming decades, ignoring price spikes and collapses, of course.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', 'I')t's a simple model, I know, but sometimes simplicity is best when capturing the essence of price behavior.

If you look at the historical chart for oil prices you'll find that they went down exponentially for most of the twentieth century, ignoring price spikes like the Iran Crisis and the like. This agrees with the last model, where pop growth < oil extraction, which suggests that the price of oil will skyrocket in the coming decades, ignoring price spikes and collapses, of course.

[chrispi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', 'I')t's a simple model, I know, but sometimes simplicity is best when capturing the essence of price behavior.

If you look at the historical chart for oil prices you'll find that they went down exponentially for most of the twentieth century, ignoring price spikes like the Iran Crisis and the like. This agrees with the last model, where pop growth < oil extraction, which suggests that the price of oil will skyrocket in the coming decades, ignoring price spikes and collapses, of course.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', 'I')t's a simple model, I know, but sometimes simplicity is best when capturing the essence of price behavior.

If you look at the historical chart for oil prices you'll find that they went down exponentially for most of the twentieth century, ignoring price spikes like the Iran Crisis and the like. This agrees with the last model, where pop growth < oil extraction, which suggests that the price of oil will skyrocket in the coming decades, ignoring price spikes and collapses, of course.

[chrispi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', 'I')t's a simple model, I know, but sometimes simplicity is best when capturing the essence of price behavior.

If you look at the historical chart for oil prices you'll find that they went down exponentially for most of the twentieth century, ignoring price spikes like the Iran Crisis and the like. This agrees with the last model, where pop growth < oil extraction, which suggests that the price of oil will skyrocket in the coming decades, ignoring price spikes and collapses, of course.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', 'I')t's a simple model, I know, but sometimes simplicity is best when capturing the essence of price behavior.

If you look at the historical chart for oil prices you'll find that they went down exponentially for most of the twentieth century, ignoring price spikes like the Iran Crisis and the like. This agrees with the last model, where pop growth < oil extraction, which suggests that the price of oil will skyrocket in the coming decades, ignoring price spikes and collapses, of course.

[doufus]

What data? What source? What reliability? What effect does changing
technology have in the data? Can that even be modelled?

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', 'W')hat data? What source? What reliability? What effect does changing
technology have in the data? Can that even be modelled?

[nero]

It sounds like you're curve fitting, not modeling. If you were proposing a model then you would be discussing the complex interactions between the price of oil, supply, demand and the economy.

Since extrapolating without a sound understanding of the underlying mechanisms is an inherently dangerous thing to do I rather think the curve fitting exercise is pretty bogus. Just my opinion, but go ahead have fun.

[jimmydean]

Interesting, hats off to you for attempting some mathematical model.

At this point though I do not think population is a key factor pre peak for determining oil price. Consumption rate per capita is the key one. Rate of growth of consumption by nation could be calculated from the EIA spreadsheets. For pre-peak make an assumption that supply has peaked or has 1-2Mbbl more capacity.

Post peak there just isn't enough data to predict price. Also there are so many geopolitical and economic factors that will come into play that it will be just a guess.

i.e. Consumption approx numbers based on EIA spreadsheets (2005 Q1 numbers)
China - 1 bbl of oil services 150 people/day
UK - 1 bbl of oil services 44 people/day
U.S. - 1 bbl of oil services 15 people/day

My non-mathematical take...

Pre-peak prediction:
If demand ~ supply before peak oil... assuming supply does not drop of a cliff due to extraction or refining issues or peak oil realization...
1. Oil price will steadily rise as demand ~ supply. (here now)
2.There will be price spikes due to supply issues (refining or extraction) that will force short-term conservation. (yet to experience conservation)
3. After enough price spikes consumption rates will adjust as people/governments react with longer term conservation strategies; personel conservation, government rationing (in some nations).
4. Wealthier nations will still be able to maintain consumption rates (albeit less than Q1 2005 type numbers) iff global economy remains robust. i.e. will the stock market fall off a cliff? will the U.S. dollar dive?

Post Peak Realization
Peak oil realization is a recognition that pure production is shrinking. Pre-peak conservation may ease the coming oil price spike but there will be a spike here. This is the point of global economic woes.
- Massive potential drop in demand may be offset by massive panic to secure remaining oil OR drop in demand brings prices down temporarily thereby giving us a temporal pre-peak feeling for nations that can afford the new price levels.
- global economic fallout is eventual