[smiley]

If the world was a car I would say that that noise under the hood is becoming disturbingly loud.

[0mar]

Shoot to kill. That's my advice for anyone that asks what he/she should do for a post-peak future.

[lotrfan55345]

I don't feel it...

[Falconoffury]

Here is the big question. Unless someone can answer it, I don't see how you can't feel it.

"When the strategic petroleum reserve can no longer make up the shortfalls created by damage from hurricanes Katrina and Rita, where will the oil come from?"

So far, nobody answered it. It's definitely less than a year even in the most optimistic case.

[eastbay]

No, it's not just you.

There is no doubt whatsoever humanity is quickly heading into the Strange and Unknown.

The Gruesome Hammer long idly resting at the side of Fate is now slowly rising up readying to smash everything we now find Familiar.

There's really not all that much anyone can do to prepare other than to know it's coming and gather up the basics to survive the initial stages of the Smashing. Surviving the latter stages will require more skill and basic knowledge than most of us have so there is little anyone can do to prepare for that period.

Optimistically, however, we can all rest assured in the unshakeable knowledge that a new and different Light will in time replace the quickly coming Descent into Darkness.

[Jake_old]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, it's not just you.

There is no doubt whatsoever humanity is quickly heading into the Strange and Unknown.

The Gruesome Hammer long idly resting at the side of Fate is now slowly rising up readying to smash everything we now find Familiar.

There's really not all that much anyone can do to prepare other than to know it's coming and gather up the basics to survive the initial stages of the Smashing. Surviving the latter stages will require more skill and basic knowledge than most of us have so there is little anyone can do to prepare for that period.

Optimistically, however, we can all rest assured in the unshakeable knowledge that a new and different Light will in time replace the quickly coming Descent into Darkness.

[Falconoffury]

This article adds to the bad feeling I have.

http://peakoil.com/article8347.html

I'm telling you all. The SPR is the only thing stopping lines at the pump. The SPR could fall through in only 3 months because we don't know how much sweet oil we have.

If I'm right, then the SPR will simply fail one day and all of the sudden, around 1.5 million barrels per day just won't be available to the economy. When that happens, the shit has officially hit the fan, for at least the USA. Unfortunately, the fallout is going to hit the globe. The economy is too connected.

Many think that the problems will be gradual, but, thanks to the SPR, we will be going fine one day, and the next day all of the sudden we are short 1.5 million barrels per day. Expect lines for gasoline to be at least as bad as the 1970s shortage.

As previously stated, the SPR can make up the difference for about a year. If we assume about half the SPR is sweet, let's say 6-9 months. Sadly, only about a quarter of the SPR could be sweet, so it could be 3 months. Even sadder, the politicians could pull the plug before all the sweet oil is released.

My prediction is a sudden oil shortage anywhere between tomorrow, to 9 months from now. Please, someone prove me wrong. Where is my logic flawed? If I am right, then time is running very short. We're almost there, folks. The games are about to begin.

[Pops]

Have you noticed the price of crude vs. the price at the pump?

Crude isn't the problem today.

Refineries are the problem today.

Nat. gas is even more the problem today.

Don’t buy a scooter; buy a alternate heat source, and maybe some oil lamps.

BTW, they work without petroleum.

[Falconoffury]

You're right. Today, refineries are the problem, but if starting tomorrow 1.5 million barrels per day were taken off the US economy, refineries would cease to be a problem. The problem would become oil supply.

[eastbay]

We're almost there, folks. The games are about to begin.

_________________________________

Now that's what I'm talking about.

[Tanada]

Almost exactly eight years ago many of us thought TEOTWAWKI was right around the corner. Well it didn't end the way we predicted but things sure are a heck of a lot different today than they were eight years ago.

[Rod_Cloutier]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell it didn't end the way we predicted but things sure are a heck of a lot different today than they were eight years ago.

[Lore]

Of course the real argument was never about running out of oil, but the price at which you'd have to pay for it. For the same reason, right now, we'd never run out of Maserati Grantourismos.

Anyone in their early 40s will be having some exciting times at the end of their life. The question will be, will that be a much shorter life then expected? There are more things unfolding in heaven and earth then humanity is prepared for in the coming decades.

[ROCKMAN]

Falcon - yes...you're wrong. You’re being way too optimistic. LOL.

Go check the SPR web site. It's huge but dig through it and you find out that the utilization of the SPR for public consumption is much more limited in a variety of ways. Such as there is a limit on how much oil is allowed to be withdrawn over a period of time. More to the point, it’s important to understand that the bulk of the SPR is held in reserve for the Dept of Defense. The govt doesn’t like to advertise that fact but if you persevere thru the web site you’ll discover the truth.

At most the SPR is allowed to supply only about 6% of US oil consumption and that for just a limited amount of time. IOW it is not much of a safety net for the US economy except for very short term psychological benefit.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'O')r does anyone else feel an icy cold fist closing around them? Is it just me, or are we really almost about hit the biggest economic disaster in our history? It feels like we have only months left. The only thing keeping us going is the extra oil being released by the SPR. Am I right? All the ingredients seem to be present, plus some that aren't even necessary. We have an out of control government budget, serious natural gas shortages for this winter, a major loss in oil production, and oil demand outpacing supply worldwide. As an added bonus, the cases of avian flu seem to be increasing by the day.

It's 3 seconds before noon!

...

Only months left. Is it just me?

[PrestonSturges]

Ah yes, 2005 and many many people signed up here because we all were getting a bad case of The Fear. Or as historians call this era - The Bush Administration.

As much as people like to whinge and kvetch about Obama, there was a collective gasp of relief when he beat McCain who promised more Bush policies.

Back in 2005 I was digging up the entire yard and ordering huge truckloads of dirt until I basically ran out of room in 2009. I put all that nervous energy to good use, and we are starting to get modest but useful amounts of food in the last year or so.

[ralfy]

What took place was somewhere in between. That is, some predicted collapse because of a major increase in oil prices while others predicted collapse of oil prices thanks to major increases in crude oil production.

What happened is that fallout from financial speculation brought the world economy to its knees, and it's now trying to get up. But oil prices are still three times higher than what is expected and we are now resorting to unconventional oil.

Finally, we are dealing with multiple predicaments. That is, not just peak oil but also permanent economic crisis and environmental damage coupled with global warming. These may lead to unemployment, austerity measures, social unrest, wars, greater repression, etc., especially given increases in armaments production and deployment, etc., more human migration, poverty, the spread of disease, polluted water, lack of water, etc.

[ROCKMAN]

ralfy - Well said: "That is, not just peak oil but also permanent economic crisis and environmental damage coupled with global warming. These may lead to unemployment, austerity measures, social unrest, wars, greater repression, etc., especially given increases in armaments production and deployment, etc., more human migration, poverty, the spread of disease, polluted water, lack of water, etc." But you used up some much bandwidth. Too bad we don't have a short-hand for what you're describing. Something like the "POD"...peak oil dynamic. Why didn't someone think of that sooner? LOL.