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Luddites vs Technologists

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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 27 Oct 2013, 00:42:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '.').. It is unlikely that private investors would take such a risk, some government would have to make it a priority.


EXACTLY! If you say space, and project Y for $30bn, Government Bob thinks, lovely, another $300bn project that will provide launch services at an amortized rate ten times more costly than what we already have, at a time that we finally have private companies successfully taking on that role.

All the private sector interest is directed at variations on ejecting propellant mass out the back end of a vehicle. Because its working tech, and its cheaper than a railgun or any of these other grandiose fantasies. Just the steady state interest on $300bn is enough to launch dozens and dozens of rockets a year.
Would a space gun make economic sense just to support current space activities? Or only if a much larger project, such as asteroid mining with space colonies is planned? In which case, governments would only make it a priority if they were interested in the larger project. Without the larger project it is a "bridge to nowhere".

Which brings me back to my previous (unanswered) question, why would governments support it if private investors would not take the risk?
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 27 Oct 2013, 01:02:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'W')e could build the space colonies we need if funding and priorities were assigned by politicians in a fashion similar to the Manhattan Project or Kennedy's moonshot program. But the current entirely erroneous assumption is that we can "save the Planet" if we halt "Climate Change". As if 7.3B people would then silently vanish from the Earth and the current Mass Extinction would cease.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'W')e need a new frontier, and space is that frontier. I am certain that a large percentage of those that move into space colonies will be Americans. Note that - far from being a cultural change - this is a continuation of a 250-year-old cultural tradition.


Who is "we" exactly? When you say "we need" does that mean the 7.3B will benefit somehow?

Re the "new frontier", as an engineer you should be asking, "does that scale" from what happened centuries ago. As the wise man said, "He who makes bad historical analogies is doomed".
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 27 Oct 2013, 04:02:32

Existing rail guns a fraction of the power and size KJ is yabbering on about have continuous maintenance requirements, the HEAT generated around the firing end, combined with shock wave on atmospheric entry- keeps smashing and or melting, usually they require major maintenance within 1-3 firings. The 'steel can' better be ok with being liquefied with whatever is in it.
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 27 Oct 2013, 06:47:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'E')xisting rail guns a fraction of the power and size KJ is yabbering on about have continuous maintenance requirements, the HEAT generated around the firing end, combined with shock wave on atmospheric entry- keeps smashing and or melting, usually they require major maintenance within 1-3 firings. The 'steel can' better be ok with being liquefied with whatever is in it.


To be fair if it were built on the Altiplano in Peru or in Tibet the much reduced air pressure would be a great help in the heating and compression shock issues. They would not disappear, they just wouldn't be quite as bad.
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 28 Oct 2013, 15:22:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ') Many Doomers are eco-doomers, they think Humanity is such a disaster for the ecosystem that we will manage to either wipe out all life or make ourselves extinct along with many other species. ... Luddites are those who tend to believe that Technology, either a specific type like Artificial Intelligence, or in general like the invention of Agriculture, is the root of all evil and should be opposed axiomatically.
"Root of all evil" refers to a belief that current human societies are unable to control misuse of technology, and that they cannot (because of "human nature" or similar concepts):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_materialism]Historical materialism is a methodological approach to the study of society, economics, and history first articulated by Karl Marx (1818–1883) as the materialist conception of history. It is a theory of socioeconomic development according to which changes in material conditions (technology and productive capacity) are the primary influence on how society and the economy are organised.[/url]


I guess you would call these folks "Marxian Historical Determinist Luddites".

How would you classify:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')he humans on Earth will complete the destruction of the planet. The humans in space colonies will be chronically overpopulated until the materials available in zero G are nearing exhaustion, then the same debate about changing human culture or fecundating other solar systems will happen. Then we will spread through the Universe like an algae bloom in the sea, while the original solar system faces the same grim fate as the original planet.
...
Perhaps you overlooked the fact that economic systems do not get imposed or taught out of texts. We can study economies the same way we study other topics in Social Studies.

But nobody but the tribe as a whole decides what system we will use.
...
Fundamentally, there is one place crowded and running out of food and energy and everything that makes life pleasant and possible. Then there is another place where raw materials and energy and living space are for all practical purposes unlimited. We will spread into that space and transform it into places that humans can live. The process of leaving Earth will take centuries - the death of the Earth will take some thousands of years.

In spite of beliefs to the contrary, this migration into space will happen. In spite of all the desires of all the inhabitants, the Earth will still die. Those are both straight extrapolations from where we are today and assuming no fundamental changes to mankind or his nature.

:wink:
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 28 Oct 2013, 16:52:11

I would class KJ as a sentient virus, and proud.
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 28 Oct 2013, 17:43:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')he humans on Earth will complete the destruction of the planet. The humans in space colonies will be chronically overpopulated until the materials available in zero G are nearing exhaustion, then the same debate about changing human culture or fecundating other solar systems will happen. Then we will spread through the Universe like an algae bloom in the sea, while the original solar system faces the same grim fate as the original planet.


Someone believes in FTL travel.

If we're invoking FTL, then I'm invoking elemental magic, and I say a giant fireball will descend from heaven next year and incinerate all the humans who are facing in a northerly direction at the moment of impact, while leaving unharmed those facing south. Because, we all know the South is awesome, and them thar yankies are just annoying. Meanwhile, the few in space will all get hiccups and become unable to operate the equipment because they keep hiccupping.

Back to the real world, even *IF* humans were wise enough to moderate themselves to provide enough time and became space fairing in a significant way, there is no escaping our local cluster of stars. NONE. Getting humans living and self-sustaining/breeding on Mars is a task on the scale of a millennia. Its like people read these sci-fi books and completely lose the sense of scale that is involved. I mean, be real, we can't even stop saying, "go and safely return... to LEO", and you're talking go, never return, and no one currently alive makes it to the destination.
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 28 Oct 2013, 17:48:31

The Dogon, the Nommos and Sirius B

In Mali, West Africa, lives a tribe of people called the Dogon. The Dogon are believed to be of Egyptian decent and their astronomical lore goes back thousands of years to 3200 BC. According to their traditions, the star Sirius has a companion star which is invisible to the human eye. This companion star has a 50 year elliptical orbit around the visible Sirius and is extremely heavy. It also rotates on its axis.

This legend might be of little interest to anybody but the two French anthropologists, Marcel Griaule and Germain Dieterlen, who recorded it from four Dogon priests in the 1930's. Of little interest except that it is exactly true. How did a people who lacked any kind of astronomical devices know so much about an invisible star? The star, which scientists call Sirius B, wasn't even photographed until it was done by a large telescope in 1970.

The Dogon stories explain that also. According to their oral traditions, a race people from the Sirius system called the Nommos visited Earth thousands of years ago. The Nommos were ugly, amphibious beings that resembled mermen and mermaids. They also appear in Babylonian, Accadian, and Sumerian myths. The Egyptian Goddess Isis, who is sometimes depicted as a mermaid, is also linked with the star Sirius.

The Nommos, according to the Dogon legend, lived on a planet that orbits another star in the Sirius system. They landed on Earth in an "ark" that made a spinning decent to the ground with great noise and wind. It was the Nommos that gave the Dogon the knowledge about Sirius B.


more.....
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Timo » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 12:27:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'B')ack to the real world, even *IF* humans were wise enough to moderate themselves to provide enough time and became space fairing in a significant way, there is no escaping our local cluster of stars. NONE. Getting humans living and self-sustaining/breeding on Mars is a task on the scale of a millennia.

Obviously, you haven't considered the Musky Hyperloop. Earth to Mars in 3.9 hours. (Plus 6 months to rehydrate.)
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 13:54:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')he humans on Earth will complete the destruction of the planet. The humans in space colonies will be chronically overpopulated until the materials available in zero G are nearing exhaustion, then the same debate about changing human culture or fecundating other solar systems will happen. Then we will spread through the Universe like an algae bloom in the sea, while the original solar system faces the same grim fate as the original planet.


Someone believes in FTL travel.
KJ seems to be making historical analogies with colonial expansions on earth. These were mostly self-sustaining once they were established. The analogy is strained with space colonies - you can't just drop off a boatload of surplus peasants and tell them to go forth and fecundate. You wont get towns and farms "springing up" around the asteroid mines.

It is conceivable that space colonization could proceed incrementally, paying it's own way by asteroid mining, and somehow end up with hospitals and educational systems in space. Golden Age SF explored how this might happen. One story suggested that the spacelings would seize control of space industry and hold the Earth ransom.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'I')f we're invoking FTL, ...
Back to the real world, even *IF* humans were wise enough to moderate themselves to provide enough time and became space fairing in a significant way, there is no escaping our local cluster of stars. NONE. Getting humans living and self-sustaining/breeding on Mars is a task on the scale of a millennia. Its like people read these sci-fi books and completely lose the sense of scale that is involved. I mean, be real, we can't even stop saying, "go and safely return... to LEO", and you're talking go, never return, and no one currently alive makes it to the destination.
How would humans get to that stage? We have some tribes that take the long term sustainable view and others based on maximising consumption in the short term. The latter are more "successful" and become dominant, deriding the former as backward Luddites, etc. By their nature, they are not interested in making long term investments with uncertain payoff.

Barring FTL, interstellar colonization cannot proceed incrementally supported by short term returns. It requires a very long term investment with no "economic" return.

If we continue to be dominated by the "successful" short term cultures, how can this happen?
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 16:44:14

I think that is what Ibon has been trying to explore.

Maybe we can get him back here to answer that? He seems to be the only one considering it seriously.
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 17:30:40

Ibon knows it's a crock, like the rest of us.
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Synapsid » Tue 29 Oct 2013, 17:46:28

vision-master:

Look into the following:

Dogon Restudied: A Field Evaluation of the Work of Marcel Griaule, by Walter E A van Beek.

van Beek worked with the Dogon for years.
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby dinopello » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 09:01:27

I fear this may actually happen (unlike driverless, flying cars)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he scale of surprise is certain to be huge because info-glasses are just one of a zoo of wearable devices that are coming into our lives.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the personal front, imagine an app that uses face recognition to tell you the name of the acquaintance walking toward you and your spouse at a cocktail party, sparing everyone the embarrassment of a fumbled introduction.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ther devices will live in our pockets and eventually will be woven into the fabric of the clothes we wear. Some devices are destined to become yet more intimate, living under our skin. Some will be serious medical devices. Others will be for sheer whimsy -- imagine a subdermal display that is in effect a changeable electronic tattoo. Hobbyist hackers today can buy an implantable RFID chip kit complete with injector for less than $100. Implant it in your hand and use it to talk with electronic door locks.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Bicyclists will use info-glasses as a heads-up display for everything from road speed and map route to heart rate and glucose levels.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')arents who are out to dinner will be able to discretely listen in on the baby monitor back home or view streaming video off a bedroom webcam.

I think there might be a market for wearable electronic countermeasures that jam or spoof the glassholes. Luddites - use their tech against them ! :twisted:
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 23 Jul 2014, 11:37:48

Ludd was right our civilization is doomed by technology. Please read

http://www.ijreview.com/2014/07/160051- ... lity-time/
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 23 Jul 2014, 12:18:52

Yeah, that restaurant experience sounds like any one of many meetings I attend
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 23 Jul 2014, 12:29:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'Y')eah, that restaurant experience sounds like any one of many meetings I attend


I feel sorry for the resturaunt and the servers, with customers taking twice as long you only get half as many. The means half the tips for the servers and alf the sales for the resturaunt.

What do we need a class in school on cell phone etiquette?
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 23 Jul 2014, 13:32:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow, although this particular instance may or may not be true, it tells a story that is all too common today in America.

We are so engrossed in ourselves and in our technology that we lose sight of the importance of the relationships we have and the importance of experiencing things rather than recording them.

Sometimes we just need to put the phone away and get back to the basics.


Can't argue with the sentiment, many people once they get comfortable using txt and other phone functions retreat from real world interactions. If the One Second After scenario ever comes to pass being cut off from instant communication will be an incredible shock to many of them.
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Lore » Wed 23 Jul 2014, 19:11:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow, although this particular instance may or may not be true, it tells a story that is all too common today in America.

We are so engrossed in ourselves and in our technology that we lose sight of the importance of the relationships we have and the importance of experiencing things rather than recording them.

Sometimes we just need to put the phone away and get back to the basics.


Can't argue with the sentiment, many people once they get comfortable using txt and other phone functions retreat from real world interactions. If the One Second After scenario ever comes to pass being cut off from instant communication will be an incredible shock to many of them.


The bigger problem is we're raising a whole generation that cannot function properly in a physical environment without their sophisticated technology that relies on a perfectly tuned system to operate. Minus their techno-vents they will be fodder under any collapse.
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Re: Luddites vs Technologists

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 23 Jul 2014, 19:34:37

Wen I look at them I always think "BORG."
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