[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '.').. I have been very careful to remain gender anonymous on this website.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'W')ho is going to put up vast amounts of money so that the descendants of a minuscule fraction of the Earth's population can grow and multiply in space habitats. Can you see governments spending that money? Or capitalists? How would you sell such a high-risk investment with a generational payback time?

[Ibon]

We have to step back even once again here on this thread. First off every single person who correctly identifies the problem and engages the problem is way ahead of the curve. KJ has won my respect in his ability to articulate this. He knows the broad outline of the problem. As we all do. That I totally disagree with his projections going forward really is in some regards secondary because consequences are going to put all our projections through the grist mill.

In the meantime we are spending the time here picking apart each others ideologies exactly because consequences haven't yet done that. We are all learning from each other in some odd ways.

Does anyone here really fully trust their own projections as being more rational than KJ's for example.

I don't have a real clue what's going to happen and I am cool with that.

I am willing like a willow branch to move my projections with the upcoming consequences that will blow us around.

What else is there really?

I actually see nothing wrong with holding on to crazy solutions before the consequences come. What difference does it make?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '.').. I have been very careful to remain gender anonymous on this website.

[SeaGypsy]

AP is well known as a buxom bloke lol!...if anything I hope Tanada is a woman simply because I find the intellect s/he presents intensely attractive- and my wife would be more freaked out if I felt this way about a dude!

[KaiserJeep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'A')ll that would be required to start the next space race would be for NASA to report the discovery of a 500 ton gold asteroid. Then we would be stampeding into space, as once we stampeded into a harsh environment called the Yukon. A stampede that is still going on.

[Pops]

I don't have any great opinion about moving into space, I'm sure we will if we can afford it but only if we can afford it. We will have to be able to pay for all the basic necessities we are endowed with here on the ol' Earth: free oxygen, free water, free gravity, free solar heating, even free air pressure to keep us from exploding. All those things must be carried on our backs while we look for somewhere else as inviting as here, not that we couldn't do it if we were rich, but if we were that rich why leave?

Here is Orlov from the front page of PO.com - http://peakoil.com/generalideas/orlov-t ... f-collapse
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..it turns out that most of our economic “wealth” is made possible by “ecosystem services” which are provided free of charge.
These include water clean enough to drink, air clean enough to breathe, a temperature-controlled environment that is neither too cold nor too hot for human survival across much of the planet, forests that purify and humidify the air and moderate surface temperatures, ocean currents that moderate climate extremes making it possible to practice agriculture, oceans (formerly) full of fish, predators that keep pest populations from exploding and so on. If we were forced to provide these same services on a commercial basis, we’d be instantly bankrupt, and then, in short order, extinct. The big problem with us living on other planets is not that it’s physically impossible—though it may be—it’s that there is no way we could afford it.

[Timo]

Leaving the planet is the only option for continued economic growth because we've effectively exhausted all of our earthly physical resources. Growth requires the exploitation of cheap resources, and we're now at the end of that heyday in our human history. However, while i don't doubt the motivations caused by human greed to reach for the stars for personal profit, and while i don't doubt that the technologies to do this are increasing at exponential rates, i do doubt that the reliable development of these technologies can be developed prior to the collective demise of our planet, and the die-off of 70% to 80% of humanity. As KJ has suggested, leaving the planet on industrial enterprises may be decades or even centuries off in the future, but we don't have that length of time to wait. Maybe if we diverted our energies into geoengineering the planet to give us that amount of time, then growth for some future generation might become possible again, but for us here in the 21st Century, time's a wasting. Forget about growth. I'm not advocating the abandonment of space research completely, but trying to mine asteroids is a relatively low priority against saving the planet we live on. Placing economics ahead of planetary survival reflects the intelligence of a 2-year old.

[KaiserJeep]

No, we will not "look for somewhere else as inviting as here", we will build such places.

Things that are difficult on Earth are easy in space. Need hydrogen? Just dive through the atmosphere of a gas giant planet and scoop it up. Need water? Most comets will do, and the moons of Jupiter, Saturn, etc. are as much as 50% water ice. Need structural alloys? Nickle/iron asteroids are common. Need electricity? Solar energy is far cheaper and never turns off in space. Need to melt metals? Just use a concentrating mirror and sunlight.

And ALL OF THIS happens without any adverse impact to Earth's biosphere. One of the things we should consider is banning dirty manufacturing processes from Earth. We could forbid the burning of fossil fuels in favor of hydrogen burning as soon as we get regular supply runs from Jupiter's atmosphere. No more smog, no more carbon dioxide, only steam.

Now NONE OF THIS makes it any less crowded on Earth, the basic problem remains. In fact, cheap goods from space may make it possible for 30 Billion to inhabit the planet versus 10 Billion. Whether that is an improvement is questionable.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'F')irst of all, in the beginning there was only hydrogen. All the heavier elements are produced within the cores of stars by fusion, nova explosions, and supernova explosions. The process is called stellar nucleosynthesis and makes for interesting reading. In fact, all the gold, cobalt, iron, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium, and tungsten mined from Earth's crust, and that are essential for economic and technological progress, came originally from the rain of asteroids that hit Earth after the crust cooled. The prevalence of gold in space should actually be higher than on the Earth, since one of the primary forces causing aggregation of nickle/iron cored planets is magnetic attraction. Gold asteroids (and platinum and cobalt and all heavier elements) are highly probable. After billions of years of orbital mechanics, figuring out where the heavy element asteroid orbits are is of primary interest, and not easily modeled via mathematics - we need to prospect. Once we have figured out where the heavy elements are clustered in the asteroid belt, there is every reason to believe a "heavy element rush" will begin.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')hings that are difficult on Earth are easy in space. Need hydrogen? Just dive through the atmosphere of a gas giant planet and scoop it up. Need water? Most comets will do, and the moons of Jupiter, Saturn, etc. are as much as 50% water ice. Need structural alloys? Nickle/iron asteroids are common. Need electricity? Solar energy is far cheaper and never turns off in space. Need to melt metals? Just use a concentrating mirror and sunlight.

[KaiserJeep]

Keith, we may not understand why, but the evidence suggests that large, more or less homogeneous lumps of metals strike the Earth as meteorites. The K-Pg boundary layer was produced by a single iridium impact in the kiloton range, with no other elements present in more than trace amounts. Iron meteors are more than 95% metal, primarily iron with 5-25% nickle, and sometimes some traces of Cobalt. The various alluvial gold deposits are probably similar: kiloton impacts of pretty pure gold, up to 93% in some cases. What is not gold is primarily Silver, but it's still precious metal.

Pops, when you get further out, you boost efficiency on your solar cells by the use of mirrors to concentrate the sunlight. One of the first things you do is automate the production of aluminum, since bauxite is one of the common constituents of stony asteroids - and a mirror in space is no more than a flat sheet of shiny aluminum foil, which never oxidizes and never distorts. Not sure what you mean by "if you are going to go somewhere in space you are going to be in the dark most of the trip", since solar energy is continuous and free. There is only shade when behind some other object. If you mean that the rear end of the spacecraft is mostly pointing at the sun, that's not correct either - when changing from one solar orbit to another, most of the boost is to change the radial velocity, with some used to accelerate and brake the spacecraft.

Presently, there is an abundance of everything needed for life on Earth, including Energy. But "abundance" is relative, as an American the term applies, but for a resident of Bangladesh it's probably not appropriate.

"Your fair share" of the Earth is only 1/7,300,000,000th, after all. That's the problem we are addressing by moving into space.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'K')eith, we may not understand why, but the evidence suggests that large, more or less homogeneous lumps of metals strike the Earth as meteorites. The K-Pg boundary layer was produced by a single iridium impact in the kiloton range, with no other elements present in more than trace amounts

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'A')ll that would be required to start the next space race would be for NASA to report the discovery of a 500 ton gold asteroid. Then we would be stampeding into space, as once we stampeded into a harsh environment called the Yukon. A stampede that is still going on.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '.').. I have been very careful to remain gender anonymous on this website.

[KaiserJeep]

v-m, if you are going to quote one of my messages, you should read it first. I was not talking about leaving the solar system, everything under discussion takes place in the solar system.

Keith, I don't know how to interpret "the size of Manhattan". The area of Manhattan island is about 90 square kilometers, and iridium weighs about 11 metric tonnes per cubic meter. But with no accepted value for the thickness of the island, there is no way to calculate volume. So whatever floats your boat: if it was kilotons or megatons, it was big enough to reset our planet and reboot the ecosphere with different species, and it was composed of almost pure iridium.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', 'L')eaving the planet is the only option for continued economic growth because we've effectively exhausted all of our earthly physical resources.

[KaiserJeep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'K')J, how about the distance from mean high tide to average street level? Ya' could throw in the buildings if you'd like, the other stuff is either water or air. Still doesn't explain the crazy off-world stuff.