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The Spot Pork Shortage

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Spot Pork Shortage

Unread postby Surf » Sun 13 Oct 2013, 17:45:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') know I'm only talking about a spot shortage, and other US pork suppliers will soon fill in the hole left by Smithfield's products at my local supermarket chain. But this surprised me when it happened, and caused me to wonder: Could there come a time when most of the food grown and produced in America is exported, even though we need it here?


Keep in mind we elect government officials. If the public cannot get food because it is all exported we will protest and vote out the officials in favor of those willing to make it illegal to export food. Russia did this recently due to drought and low grain yields:

http://www.hpj.com/archives/2010/aug10/aug16/0816Russianwheatstory_2pixj.cfm

While we import a lot of things from China now, that is not a permanent situation. China became a major manufacture of things mainly due to the low cost of labor and the ending of communist government management of the economy. As there economy recovers labor, shipping costs, and the increasing value of the Chinese currency, are increasing the cost of Chinese goods . As these cost increase manufacturing will slowly move to other countries including back to the USA. Over time the amount of money the chinese government has available to buy commodities will decline.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100651692
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/18/opinion/chinese-labor-cheap-no-more.html?_r=0

The same thing happened to Japan and Europe after World war II. Japan and Europe purchased a lot of things from the US after the war and then started exporting low cost goods back to the US. But as their economies recovered there exports to the US dropped. Japan compensated for that drop by improving quality and efficiency which did help stabilized the situation but didn't revers it. Korea, Russia, and and other Asian countries are also experiencing the same thing. Years of government mismanagement, dictatorship and and war have ended or are ending and triggering major growth in there economies. It will take some time for everything to stabilize.
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Re: The Spot Pork Shortage

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 13 Oct 2013, 18:46:43

Well, that was confusing. Some replied that we are SOL because of the free market, others said the the free market will save us.

I did like the spotted pig, Keith.
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Re: The Spot Pork Shortage

Unread postby Loki » Sun 13 Oct 2013, 18:51:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'C')ould there come a time when most of the food grown and produced in America is exported, even though we need it here?

It could happen. A good recent example of this phenomenon is the "Argentinean Paradox" (link), where Argentina continued to be a food exporting powerhouse while malnutrition and outright starvation occurred in the wake of their economic collapse.

I don't think this is a likely scenario for the US, though. Not that it would worry me much, it'd be a great boon to us local food producers.

I went to the local supermarket today, the only one in a ~20 mile radius, and there were plenty of pork products on the shelf. I wish there was a shortage, I'm having a hard time selling my last two pigs.
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Re: The Spot Pork Shortage

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sun 13 Oct 2013, 22:11:40

I did notice a few weeks ago, when I went to the store, that the bacon for which I had been paying $3.29 a lb had jumped to $7.99 a lb!!
And, now I understand why I can't find any Smithfield ham. Apparently, getting rid of Paula Deen (who advertised for Smithfield) was a plot by the Chinese!!
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Re: The Spot Pork Shortage

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 14 Oct 2013, 09:33:17

pstarr - "Then what". Let them eat cake. But I guess that answer didn't work out for ole Marie A.
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Re: The Spot Pork Shortage

Unread postby efarmer » Mon 14 Oct 2013, 11:32:58

The Chinese are clever indeed. All it took was one strategic buy of pork, and the United States
Congress which runs on the stuff, had to shut down the entire Federal Government until they can figure out something else to power it with. They have tried smoke and mirrors, gall and bluster, and are currently working on a form of chicken, but to date, have not found anything to replace the pork.
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Re: The Spot Pork Shortage

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 14 Oct 2013, 11:37:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Surf', '-')snip-

Keep in mind we elect government officials. If the public cannot get food because it is all exported we will protest and vote out the officials in favor of those willing to make it illegal to export food. Russia did this recently due to drought and low grain yields:

-snip-

The same thing happened to Japan and Europe after World war II. Japan and Europe purchased a lot of things from the US after the war and then started exporting low cost goods back to the US. But as their economies recovered there exports to the US dropped. Japan compensated for that drop by improving quality and efficiency which did help stabilized the situation but didn't revers it. Korea, Russia, and and other Asian countries are also experiencing the same thing. Years of government mismanagement, dictatorship and and war have ended or are ending and triggering major growth in there economies. It will take some time for everything to stabilize.


Surf, It took me a few days to read and think about the articles you linked to. After due consideration, I don't think these parallel the present US situation. Japan, Russia, and Korea forbid other countries from owning real estate. The US does not do so.

Smithfield Foods owns hundreds of square miles of the USA and leases even more. Chinese company Shuanghui International Holdings Ltd. now owns these lands and leases. Once they have paid any owed taxes on food produced, I don't think the US Federal Government can prevent the export of that food.

I mean, look at what happened: Trucks containing pork products ordered by a US supermarket chain were diverted and the goods were exported, presumably on Chinese-owned refrigerated ships that had been pre-positioned for this move. I am certain that Shuanghui realized a huge profit on premium US pork.

In Japan, Russia, and Korea, the food production is owned by domestic firms and the food products themselves are traded on open commodities exchanges. Those governments have a span of control over foods in their countries that the US government lacks.

At least, it seems that way to me.

To assert the same level of control over US food production would require that the US nationalize those farmlands, it seems to me. That's not impossible, but it is without precedent in this country, I believe.
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Re: The Spot Pork Shortage

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 14 Oct 2013, 11:45:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', 'T')he Chinese are clever indeed. All it took was one strategic buy of pork, and the United States
Congress which runs on the stuff, had to shut down the entire Federal Government until they can figure out something else to power it with. They have tried smoke and mirrors, gall and bluster, and are currently working on a form of chicken, but to date, have not found anything to replace the pork.


Clever, but slightly off. The Chinese bought the means of production for 27% of US pork.

I can't say I've missed the Federal government yet. I say, bring on Sequestration II, and let the individual departments shrink their budgets.

Let them lay themselves off. It's about time that they understand what it's like in the real world.
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Re: The Spot Pork Shortage

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 14 Oct 2013, 11:49:51

China wants to learn how to factory farm like Americans. I read somewhere else that most of China's pigs still come from small operations. They need to increase their production efficiency if they want to satisfy their demand. Even the relatively small pig farms of China create large ecological problems. Just wait until they supersize it.

When I get depressed and sickened by seeing factory farming conditions and nets full of dead pigs being hauled out of rivers like it was a large scale fishing operation, I go to this site and look at the cute little happy piggies.

Happy pigs.
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Re: The Spot Pork Shortage

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 14 Oct 2013, 12:46:35

Understand. I am content to view meats in the supermarket refrigerated counters.
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Re: The Spot Pork Shortage

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 14 Oct 2013, 14:58:01

No wonder American pork is considered a premium product.
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Re: The Spot Pork Shortage

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 15 Oct 2013, 00:12:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', 'T')he Chinese are clever indeed. All it took was one strategic buy of pork, and the United States
Congress which runs on the stuff, had to shut down the entire Federal Government until they can figure out something else to power it with. They have tried smoke and mirrors, gall and bluster, and are currently working on a form of chicken, but to date, have not found anything to replace the pork.
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