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Re: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologist's POV

Postby vtsnowedin » Fri 11 Oct 2013, 05:53:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')
I fail to see the point or advantage to building a space colony. It would be much easier to build a closed environment here on earth. I know the one time it was tried it was a failure but the experiment is much cheaper to repeat here on earth then in space. Just imagine your space ship that has landed but has not opened a hatch. It has one G gravity and 15psi outside pressure and needs no fuel or guidance to keep it in orbit. Much better to solve all the sustainability problems on small scale closed environments here on earth before we spend the resources on launching unproven technology into orbit.


I don't really think we will learn much we don't already know, we have man-years of experience on the ISS and man-centuries of existing in closed environments like submarines. At best the Earth-based experiment would be a simulation of a space colony. Although it would cost more, we could learn lots more and much faster by running the experiment in space.

Both the ISS and submarines are resupplied on a regular basis. None of the food for the crew is grown on board. There is a world of difference between how they operate and what would be required for a ship that could not be resupplied for years. The Biodome (if that was what they called it) experiment failed because they miscalculated the oxygen consumption of soil microbes. Apparently they were using the generally believed consensus figure which turned out to be more then a bit off.
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Re: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologist's POV

Postby KaiserJeep » Fri 11 Oct 2013, 06:48:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')his space travel meme is just the flip side of the doomer meme. Both are childish cop outs. Adolescent fantasy that frees it's proponents from actually working to fix things.

Kaiser you claim to be a scientist. How would you propose we colonize the solar system? What is the fuel? After all, this is a fuel web site.


No, as a point of fact I do NOT claim to be a "Scientist", nor do I worship that peculiar tribe of priests in white lab coats. I am an Engineer, I work for a living.

What an Engineer does is combine known principles to achieve a new gadget, some of which have never existed before. We don't do basic research, we audit each other's work to determine all the clever tricks, and publish in the trade journals when we have a neat new trick of our own.

But I have the love of an amateur for space travel and the love of an aficionado for my favorite form of literature for over 5 decades, which is Science Fiction. I continuously track the differences between the reality of present tech and the unreality of fiction. The current film Gravity for example is not really SF, it is a present day drama set in space - the only fictional part being the rather unlikely plot, it all being technology available two decades ago.

In this present thread, from the viewpoint of the afore-mentioned ecologist, there is no happy ending if the ecology of the world is damaged or destroyed. My point of view is different, because I am happy enough if our species survives. It matters not to me that the planet will heal itself and evolve new life on a geological time scale, because I serve humanity and have no especial respect for the planet, and don't place the welfare of the planet above that of humans.

A century ago, had we understood our eventual fate and limited our population to the sustainable limit, I would be properly regarded as a villian, because of my profession and the fact that I serve my species . But that train has already left the station. Understand that the overpopulation of the species has already happened. There is no going back. The mere existence of 7.3 billion people, all eating/drinking/breathing/reproducing, is killing the planet. With our knowledge of Science and Medicine, we are unlikely to succumb to plagues, environmental degradation, global warming, Ice Ages, or any fate we are familiar with, including hydrocarbon exhaustion. In our numbers and with our knowledge, we are going to be the last species on Earth - at least of the higher animals.

There is a more than even chance that we can build ourselves another home (or homes) and even use such to preserve the diversity of life on our home planet - or failing in that, enough food species to survive, and enough DNA samples to engineer any species required.

Like I said before, you either believe in technology, or you don't. Those that do not understand it, fear it. Those of us who are the masters of technology simply regard it as a tool. Men like me will either save humanity, or die trying. That's the way things work, there is not even any debate over this - of course we will try to survive.

There is no magical "Earth Mother", Gaia is a myth. The Earth is a residence, we are the tenants, and we have already destroyed the place, damaged it beyond repair, and beyond redemption. It is decidedly inconvenient, but we have to move - the alternative being to lay down and die - as if we were an old, sick dog who wonders away from home, and lays down to die in a hole in the ground.

But if you KNOW of a way to reduce the global population to a sustainable limit, without further damage to the globe, and to convince women that they must be content with two children, then we can talk. We will still be going into space, understand, but having a Plan B is also a good thing.

Like I said before, it is so ironic that the finest thoughts of religious figures like the Buddha and Christ - that we love and cherish and aid one another - are at the root of the Earth's destruction. I now elaborate on that theme and note that a human woman's desire to have children plural is another element that sealed our doom. It seems sort of unlikely that 9/10ths of the present world population would report to composting plants and ask to be shot and composted into plant nutrients, but that is the bare bones description of a scenario that might "save the planet" - which is incorrect terminology for "saving the present ecology". Such a scenario seems a lot less likely than space colonies to me.
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Re: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologist's POV

Postby Newfie » Fri 11 Oct 2013, 08:05:32

Ya know, if you think about it, we HAVE a spaceship, we are living on it, whirling through space. We mucked it up, bad.

Your asking for a " Do over."
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Re: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologist's POV

Postby basil_hayden » Fri 11 Oct 2013, 15:19:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')How would you propose we colonize the solar system? What is the fuel? After all, this is a fuel web site.



Build a suitable ship, fill it with people and systems that support people, remove the Higgs bosons so the ship and its contents have no mass, fly to the next suitable place, put the bosons back, live happily ever after until that place is full. Repeat.

Was it Asimov who said that in 10,000 years at current growth rates, the mass of humans would outweigh the mass of the universe? Let's see if he was right.
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby KaiserJeep » Fri 11 Oct 2013, 15:30:24

The difference would be that NOW WE KNOW. The Reverend Malthus published in 1798, which is just about the time we could have taken effective action to curb human population to sustainable levels.

Right now, the Earth's ecosystem is dying, the 6th known mass extinction, and the first one linked to human overpopulation.

The scandal of all the popular groups that claim "Green" status is that they shy away from even saying - much less debating - that human overpopulation is the one environmental problem that matters, the one that causes all the rest. These groups correctly assess the truth: Saving the Earth means Genocide for the human race - if one does not believe in space travel.

It's a binary solution set: Save the planet, or save the people. There is no viable 3rd alternative, in the absence of expanding the population into space.

The Oil Peak - all the fossil fuel peaks - are symptoms of overpopulation.

In the case of the first space colonies - human culture will have to change, the price of living on such a habitat is that you must agree to have only two children per couple. The 3rd child will be needed in some cases, to overcome people lost to accidents or disease. But reproducing without the proper "birthright" would be a capital offense.

Those that can't or won't comply would be required to leave and build their own habitat.

I don't think this will be necessary for long - the carrying capacity of the Solar System is probably tens of trillions of people - enough respite to develop practical star travel.
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Re: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologist's POV

Postby KaiserJeep » Fri 11 Oct 2013, 20:52:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '-')snip-
Still haven't responded: What known principal or new gadget would allow us to colonize space?


A: No new principals and no new gadgets required. All the technology needed was developed decades ago. We need only the desire and some funding.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '-')snip-
Our species will not survive in the absence of the natural capital that carbon-based life depends on. It is impossible to seperate our survival from the Space ship Earth upon which we evolved. You are a techtopian and appear to not understand your place in the universe.


Says you, perhaps. Although deadly and ultimately fatal for most humans, the ecological crash will still have survivors, just as there were humans left after the Pliestocene Ice Age. Just as approximately 10% of the species on Earth survived the giant meteor impact. Our technology enables us to today exist in many parts of the Earth never before occupied by humans. We will not lose that knowledge. In the end, our tech will both save us as a species and preserve a record of what things were like before, during, and after the present mass extinction.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '-')snip-
Actually this is wrong. Gaia is quite real. Not coincidentally it was a space scientist, James Lovelock, who along with Lynn Margulis, a biochemist, who proposed that our planet is a self-regulating automata. But you wouldn't understand that because you are not a scientist, but rather a simple mechanic. LOL. (note: before you dismiss Lovelock as an airy-fairy, remember that he also invented the microwave, as well as the jpg format while at the Jet Propulsion Lab in Pasadena)


Credible Scientists can also have religious convictions. That is what the Gaia Earth-myth amounts to. The Earth is hugely complex, but a natural system, not a living organism.

Nor is it subject to accurate computer modelling (As in BITE ME, AGW enthusiasts.)

By the way, the civilization and technology you enjoy, and that enables your very life, were created by engineers and artisans, not by scientists.

I find that the majority of scientists are useless parasites, suckling grant money from the public teats, and interested only in their personal obsession, few of which have commercial application.

Edison was an engineer, not a scientist. As was virtually every man who ever produced anything usefull.

As I mentioned before, I don't worship the priests in white lab coats.
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby Newfie » Sat 12 Oct 2013, 09:37:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') find that the majority of scientists are useless parasites, suckling grant money from the public teats, and interested only in their personal obsession, few of which have commercial application.n


As are most engineers.

Good grief the arrogance!
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby SeaGypsy » Sat 12 Oct 2013, 09:48:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') find that the majority of scientists are useless parasites, suckling grant money from the public teats, and interested only in their personal obsession, few of which have commercial application.n


As are most engineers.

Good grief the arrogance!


It's beyond words really :oops:
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby Tanada » Sat 12 Oct 2013, 10:09:07

Everyone values their own profession as a measure of self worth, and most of us look down on members of other professions we consider to be less valuable and/or competing with our profession for recognition. For example some people go into Medicine to become wealthy, but many more go into the field because they believe it is how they can help others or that they are good at doing it. Successful lawyers are people who like to argue and persuade others, often by using esoteric case law as their examples. Successful engineers build things that stand the test of time and function at or beyond the specifications of the project. Teachers believe they are leading the younger generation into becoming successful adults.

It is simply human nature, if you do not value your own work why would anyone else value it enough to pay you to do it?
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby KaiserJeep » Sat 12 Oct 2013, 11:43:03

Well said, Tanada.

In my 35 year career, I worked on one particular fault-tolerant computer system, originally called a Tandem Computer - a long gone company.

The computers I was on the design teams for run all the stocks and commodities exchanges, most of the ATMs, most of the cellphone billing, and most of the credit card transactions. If you use the Internet to buy things, you use my work product, at least to count money in the background.

Nowadays my job is to keep those same machines running long after their natural lifespans, because financial institutions are very conservative and having our completely proprietary system counting the money has proved to be very safe - it could hardly be otherwise, locked in a chilled room at an anonymous location with only local administration. I doubt that our stuff will ever be found at fault in any Internet crime, for example, because we designed it to be secure and not subject to abuse.

My stuff runs the world as you know it, and you are right - I am proud.
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby SeaGypsy » Sat 12 Oct 2013, 11:56:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', '
')
My stuff runs the world as you know it, and you are right - I am proud.


Again you miss the subtext.

Are you drunk? The world as we know it is so screwed we need to urgently get on space ships and get the hell out of here before it's too late- your 'stuff' runs it- and you are proud? :cry:
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby KaiserJeep » Sat 12 Oct 2013, 12:16:56

You appear to be reading half my posts and understanding rather less. I don't believe the "fast crash" scenario.

I mentioned that the end of the world, the mass extinction we are in now, has been going on for over a millenium. It was not technology that killed the world, it was Agriculture and Medicine. When Kunstler called his book about the Oil Peak The Long Emergency, he was certainly correct.

Space colonies a millenium from now are still soon enough. Meanwhile I have done far more than my share of making it possible for more people to live longer using less resources, while having one child.

My career could be either a service or a curse depending upon your point of view. To a Gaia worshiper, engineers would be the devil incarnate, enabling the further rape of the planet. To a Technologist, I have been a success, lived my life according to my beliefs, and I know it.
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby Newfie » Sat 12 Oct 2013, 14:06:21

Agriculture and medicine IS technology!!!!!!
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby Tanada » Sat 12 Oct 2013, 14:20:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'A')griculture and medicine IS technology!!!!!!


Indeed, when we went from following migratory herd to deliberately herding them where we wanted them to go not much changed, but when we started planting seeds and tending them to grow crops EVERYTHING changed!
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby SeaGypsy » Sat 12 Oct 2013, 19:05:53

Technology and science vs science fiction, text and subtext, real and imagined history- all areas of struggle for the deskchair psychiatrist computer engineer KJ.
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby KaiserJeep » Sat 12 Oct 2013, 19:48:06

SeaGypsy, I realize that I offended you in the other thread, and I quite amicably agreed to leave when requested.

Know that it was never my intent to offend you, and I am sorry it happened. I said what I said from a desire to help you, and for no other reason.

Now I wish to say, you are welcome to stay in this thread and contribute, but I have not noticed any intent to contribute in your recent posts.

As for subtext, I don't use it in an international forum where people are separated by what seems a common language - it can be misinterpreted so easily. If you thought there was content below the surface in my posts, you were wrong. I speak quite plainly and directly.

I'm finding some of your views on US history in particular a mite peculiar. I understand fully that you and I were educated in different countries using different texts, but we appear to have widely differing views upon very recent political events in particular - events I lived through and you read about.
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby SeaGypsy » Fri 18 Oct 2013, 07:00:07

Bumped for KJ's benefit- prattle on about the necessity of Space Development goes here. :razz:
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby Quinny » Sat 19 Oct 2013, 15:25:26

After a degree in Maths and getting what was one of the prime jobs as a Systems Engineer with IBM I approached a career in IT hoping to benefit mankind by enabling more efficient use of resources. I soon learned that the only resources that IT systems were used to manage were financial ones. Getting money owed in quicker and delaying payments to suppliers were the main 'benefits' that IT brought to companies. Disillusioned is nowhere near strong enough to describe how I felt..

Tandem - proud WTF?? LMFAO!!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'W')ell said, Tanada.

In my 35 year career, I worked on one particular fault-tolerant computer system, originally called a Tandem Computer - a long gone company.

The computers I was on the design teams for run all the stocks and commodities exchanges, most of the ATMs, most of the cellphone billing, and most of the credit card transactions. If you use the Internet to buy things, you use my work product, at least to count money in the background.

Nowadays my job is to keep those same machines running long after their natural lifespans, because financial institutions are very conservative and having our completely proprietary system counting the money has proved to be very safe - it could hardly be otherwise, locked in a chilled room at an anonymous location with only local administration. I doubt that our stuff will ever be found at fault in any Internet crime, for example, because we designed it to be secure and not subject to abuse.

My stuff runs the world as you know it, and you are right - I am proud.
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Re: Space OTSF: What if there is no happy ending; an ecologi

Postby Subjectivist » Wed 06 Nov 2013, 20:00:58

II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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