[cube]

I've noticed that most of the time when a prediction is made about the future, people envision a grand world where everything advances. History has proven otherwise. For every technology that advances even beyond the imagination of a sci fi writer there's at least one other that seems to be stuck in neutral.

Take for example computers. WOW. I mean seriously. Nobody saw that coming.

but for every succes there is a failure

Take for example freeways. Sure we may have more advanced materials and CAD (computer aided design/drafting) but our freeways are in worse shape now then before. And people spend more time in traffic today then 20 years ago.

So while we may have advanced technologically overall...in some areas we have actually regressed.

Make your prediction of what technology will flop.

Here's my prediction...yes freeways. I'm sorry but I don't see a bright future for freeways. I don't care if we master the art of super strong materials like carbon nano tubes, the condition of our freeways will only get worse.

if you're feeling negative about a technology put it here.

[Dezakin]

The observation is that projections are nearly allways overoptimistic in the short term and hopelessly pessimistic in the long term, in terms of technological development. This is because technology generally advances at an exponential rate while people tend to think linearly.

In fifty years, I find it unlikely that humanity will have large scale commercial space flight, personal flying cars, robot armies, or any of the staple of space opera science fiction. Perhaps human level AI (which does bizare things to economic growth) but nothing terribly alien from what we see on the street today. More advertisments maybe. And keeping on topic for this site, probably fewer SUV's.

In one hundred and fifty years... I wouldn't be suprised if machines with the minds of gods and powers to match ruled over most of the solar system.

The fundamental reason human technological growth has been an exponential advance is because technology bootstraps itself and because it is a function of an educated population, which has been growing at a faster rate than raw population growth. When the whole world reaches the living standards (and productivity output) of the developed world perhaps we'll see a plateau, but by then perhaps machines will be able to reproduce human ingenuety.

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')Here's my prediction...yes freeways. I'm sorry but I don't see a bright future for freeways. I don't care if we master the art of super strong materials like carbon nano tubes, the condition of our freeways will only get worse.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '.').........

In one hundred and fifty years... I wouldn't be suprised if machines with the minds of gods and powers to match ruled over most of the solar system.

...............

[I_Like_Plants]

There's a Salvation Army store near here, where the TVs for sale (the ones that work) always seem to be playing a Star Wars movie lately. It's eerie, the futuristic stuff on Star Wars being shown on all these cast-off TVs, some with the old mechanical ker-chunk ker-chunk tuners, being played while people on the edge of poverty or right in it, rifle through used clothes and are puzzled by the gadgets, like electric carving knives and "executive desk toys" of the energy-rich 1970s.

[Wildwell]

A lot of these ideas come for authors who write sci-fi books, the fact is some things are just not that practical or too costly. Other things are of no real use, or are too complicated to use, have safety problems, or are not really an advancement. There’s also the fear factor, think: GM food, cloning, too much computing power, Nuclear power and so on. Many intelligent’ people that come up with these ideas have no real flair for practicality, and they believe that the more flexible, fast or complicated something is the better. We are the limits in many ways. The laws of physics and geology also play a role.

Flying cars is the classic. There’s no real practical use in taking off, there’s also very significant safety and privacy risks, a good proportion of drivers can’t handle things on the ground, let alone in the air. You simple do not have the space for separation of these things or the fuel to power them. Some people do not service their personal vehicles now or take them to cowboy mechanics. This increases the safety risk many, many times. Don’t think computers are the answer, the irony with computer power, is the more complex you make the circuitry, the more chance of an indeterminate failure. Lastly most trips are to the shops, it would be far quicker to remain on the ground rather than get clearance to fly around the corner! Conclusion. No real use and make everyone’s problems worse.

It’s all quite amusing in some ways. It’s like TV, film and music. It’s amazing how the old stuff keeps coming on round and round again, must be a shortage of new ideas.

[sklump]

... but as the economic engine of the world foregoes scientific education in favour of ritual self-abasement to The Deity, the prime force advancing technology will dry up.

Unfortunately, many of the superstitious proles will see the Police State disappearing people as the Oil Crash takes hold, but will register the Rapture and the End Times.

I'm not what you'd call an optimist, here.

[cube]

Here's another flop. Bio-tech. I don't doubt that bio-tech is going to give us something really cool before the 21st century closes. I remember someone boldly stating "the 20th century belonged to physics, but biology will own the 21st century."

However at this point Bio-tech is more about empty promises more so then anything else.

Another flop:
smart freeways -
the idea of increasing the carrying capacity of a freeway by having computers electronically control the cars. You can increase the capacity of a freeway by driving the cars really close together (like 1 meter apart while going 65 mph). If a computer controls this then in it can be done safely.

sorry folks --- not going to happen

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ere's another flop. Bio-tech. I don't doubt that bio-tech is going to give us something really cool before the 21st century closes. I remember someone boldly stating "the 20th century belonged to physics, but biology will own the 21st century."

However at this point Bio-tech is more about empty promises more so then anything else.

[Wildwell]

...Until the AI machines work out humans are a liability or people fear advancements and controls are exercised. That's happening now. Huge intelligence in machines would be an ideal weapon to take down the internet, banks, commerce, the military, just about anything...Can't see that being allowed, then again the nature of consciousness hasn't even been worked out to any great degree or the human brain...so we're a long way from that..

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', ' ')Has Monte got rid of his car yet?

[k_semler]

1. I wonder if MQ has the requred ordinance premits for the explosives in that container. I bet the BATFE would be wanting to find that out. (check out the HazMat label on the trailer).

2. If my computer is ever a sentient machine, I will shoot it with a 12 ga slug, and then light it on fire! No machine is going to plot to kill me! I will kill it first.

[Dezakin]

Wildwell
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..Until the AI machines work out humans are a liability or people fear advancements and controls are exercised.

[lotrfan55345]

Microsoft already has a patent for transferring data and electricity through human skin cells ....

http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Pars ... /6,754,472

[scordry]

I think that the whole notion of an economy based on renewable energy will turn out to be a sci-fi dream. All existing renewable energy schemes are ultimately fossil-fuel dependent. Some examples:
*the giant blades of wind-turbines are made from fiberglass-reinforced polyesther
*Hydrogen is derived almost exclusively from natural gas
*Photovoltaics require high-temperature ovens that must be heated with natural gas (as far as I know)

Does anyone know of a renewable energy that wouldn't be fossil-fuel dependent?

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')icrosoft already has a patent for transferring data and electricity through human skin cells ....