Peak Oil: a fertile concept : Peak oil studies, reports & models - Page 3

Re: Peak Oil: a fertile concept

by SamInNebraska » Tue 03 Sep 2013, 19:25:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'P')ops - Exactly right.

<Sam takes a deep breath and edits his prior rant>

Rockman, you see that first graphic Pops uses? Check out this document and let me know how many flat topped oil production rates you notice?

http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20131109

Next point, can someone please tell me why I believe ANYTHING someone says when they obviously aren't even aware of the seminal work on the topic, and how that guy doesn't give anyone equations for flat topped oil well production either?

http://www.pe.tamu.edu/blasingame/data/z_zCourse_Archive/P689_reference_02C/z_P689_02C_ARP_Tech_Papers_(Ref)_(pdf)/SPE_00000_Arps_Decline_Curve_Analysis.pdf

Take flat topped production non-declines into your friendly reserve auditor, and after they hand you your balls and call your boss demanding you be fired for incompetence, you don't tend to make that mistake ever again.

Which by extension means, if someone doesn't even know how most wells produce naturally (because those who do reserve reports or do field and well production management certainly know the pressure maintenance configurations used to make a wells production rate do most whatever they want) then why in the WORLD would anyone take any conclusions they draw from such a flawed understanding of the reservoir dynamics involved?

To sum up, whoever made the original graphic couldn't even be bothered, or worse yet didn't know, how wells actually produce. On those grounds alone they probably can't be trusted to draw any conclusion of value from something they have already proven they do not understand.

SamInNebraska

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Peak Oil: a fertile concept

Re: Peak Oil: a fertile concept

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