$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('westexas', '
')The $64 Trillion question is what happens from 2012 to 2022, especially if we see declining Global Net Exports of oil.
PeakOil is You
Conservation vs Rationing
Re: Why is Saudi Arabia not a threat to Fracking?
by John_A » Wed 31 Jul 2013, 11:54:04
That is extremely dependent on how fast the developing world can achieve a US level of increasing efficiency driving down consumption, and how much of the rest of the world accesses their shale oil deposits. Tracking only exports ignores exactly the sort of effect the US is currently creating in world oil markets, and that alone is causing these kinds of statements from the Saudi's, AND voluntary cutbacks in oil exports. Which means the world is using less oil FASTER than countries lose export ability.
This type of scenario leads to exporter competition and that scenario has already played out in 1986. And those in industry back then undoubtedly remember how that went for careers, jobs, and their mortgage payments.
45ACP: For when you want to send the very best.
- John_A
- Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1193
- Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2011, 21:16:36
Re: Why is Saudi Arabia not a threat to Fracking?
by Pops » Wed 31 Jul 2013, 12:54:00
LOL, facts just never enter into your spiel do they John?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-
Pops - Elite
- Posts: 19746
- Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Re: Why is Saudi Arabia not a threat to Fracking?
by John_A » Wed 31 Jul 2013, 13:48:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'L')OL, facts just never enter into your spiel do they John?
Which facts? America increasing oil production faster than at any time in its history, and the side effect of this being the Saudi's having to put out statements acting as though they are worried about it? All seems kind of straight forward, factual wise, to me. If the worlds oldest and 3rd largest producer of oil, half a century past its prime can pull off this kind of stunt, what happens when an even larger oil producing region, which isn't past its prime, suddenly decides to put the effort into both their normal resources as well as the kind of stuff the US is doing? Can Russia make 15 million a day from conventional resources plus 50% greater amounts of shale oil they have than we do? Here are the amounts claimed by the most recent study on the topic.
http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/
Facts, facts everywhere. The Saudi's are talking for a reason, they haven't forgotten what happened in 1986 (the facts on that price crash aren't in dispute either) and how it happened. Guaranteed. Want another fact? Interested Saudi princes, perhaps even the one referred to in the most recent press release, they dropped in on the EIA to get the story from the horses mouth back in February of this year. Things that make you go mmmmmmmm........
You can call the Saudi's many things, but stupid ain't one of them. And that's a fact.
45ACP: For when you want to send the very best.
- John_A
- Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1193
- Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2011, 21:16:36
Re: Why is Saudi Arabia not a threat to Fracking?
by TheDude » Wed 31 Jul 2013, 17:53:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', ' ')America increasing oil production faster than at any time in its history
Largest YOY gains in US production history:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
2012 840
1951 751
1940 643
1967 515
1937 499
1966 491
1923 480
1955 465
1978 462
1944 459
1948 432')
Almost every year in this set was in the era of ca. $2/bbl. Some of these years just reflect shut-in production coming back online, but a good few are from further on down the line too; here are the largest YOY contractions:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
1941 -260
1986 -291
1930 -300
1993 -324
1987 -331
1999 -371
1975 -399
1974 -434
1958 -460
1949 -474
1989 -527')
The whole tight oil phenomenon I'm still viewing as a proof of concept. Still haven't seen solid proof that the American experience can be replicated elsewhere easily, if at all - the French put the kibosh on it with the stroke of a pen, after all. FSU nations seem to be content with tertiary recovery on old conventional fields.
"Drowning in oil," well, that'd be great if we had somewhere to put it. There was a massive stock buildout in the 80s to have somewhere to store all that North Sea/Slope crude. These days the OECD stocks just seem to be warbling about, just like demand for the stuff is doing. BRIC nations/exporters, good luck finding solid numbers. EIA tells us for instance that "In addition to the strategic reserves of crude oil, China had between 170 and 310 million barrels of commercial crude oil storage capacity in 2010 according to various Chinese government and private sector sources." Nice fudge factor you got there, EIA. And they're paid to get to the bottom of these matters.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
-
TheDude - Expert
- Posts: 4896
- Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
- Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Re: Why is Saudi Arabia not a threat to Fracking?
by Pops » Wed 31 Jul 2013, 18:13:56
John the USs falling consumption doesn't have anything to do with "efficiency" it has to do with not driving because it costs too much, lol. I could quote chapter and verse but to what end? You'll just repeat the same tripe tomorrow, it's what you do.
And don't you think the Fracking Miracle would have shown some legs somewhere other than 14 counties in the US by now, at this price? Even Leo M., Grand Phobah of Fracking Fluffing now says it's doubtful fracking will spread outside of the US any time soon, at least in the way it popped here. How can it, half the rigs in the world are here, lol.
And where is all this new shale oil you keep harping about going? It's going to offset the decline in the rest of the world's oil production. Study the chart, the US & Canada, Russia and Iraq are the only countries growing at all.
ROCK is exactly right, the reason prices are still at record levels - higher that at any time in the past as a yearly average for 2 1/2 years now - is because supply is not meeting demand, just that simple. If there were a glut of oil or a dearth of demand the price would fall, that's the rule, just as it did with the nat gas drilling bubble.
Our new member DC put up a couple of believable charts showing that using the EIAs URR fracking in the baken will peak within a few of years at less than 2Mbopd, barely enough to offset the ROW decline to this point. 2Mbopd for a while is better than none but it ain't great.
The reason KSA isn't playing the swinger is because they can't, they are drilling for gas because a)they want to export it b) they want to burn gas to run the A/C and c) I think they really want to manage what they have for the long term. It could be they've been reading westexas because there are rumblings of actually reducing subsidies and building mass transit instead.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')iyadh plans a bit of social engineering to go with the Saudi capital’s new $22 billion-plus metro project, hoping to coax car-loving Saudis off clogged roads and into the subway, the head of Riyadh’s development authority says...
Once the project’s done, the authorities will be looking for “incentives that encourage the people to use public transport,” Mr. Sultan said. That could include increases “in terms of fuel costs,” he added.
And don't you think the Fracking Miracle would have shown some legs somewhere other than 14 counties in the US by now, at this price? Even Leo M., Grand Phobah of Fracking Fluffing now says it's doubtful fracking will spread outside of the US any time soon, at least in the way it popped here. How can it, half the rigs in the world are here, lol.
And where is all this new shale oil you keep harping about going? It's going to offset the decline in the rest of the world's oil production. Study the chart, the US & Canada, Russia and Iraq are the only countries growing at all.
ROCK is exactly right, the reason prices are still at record levels - higher that at any time in the past as a yearly average for 2 1/2 years now - is because supply is not meeting demand, just that simple. If there were a glut of oil or a dearth of demand the price would fall, that's the rule, just as it did with the nat gas drilling bubble.
Our new member DC put up a couple of believable charts showing that using the EIAs URR fracking in the baken will peak within a few of years at less than 2Mbopd, barely enough to offset the ROW decline to this point. 2Mbopd for a while is better than none but it ain't great.
The reason KSA isn't playing the swinger is because they can't, they are drilling for gas because a)they want to export it b) they want to burn gas to run the A/C and c) I think they really want to manage what they have for the long term. It could be they've been reading westexas because there are rumblings of actually reducing subsidies and building mass transit instead.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')iyadh plans a bit of social engineering to go with the Saudi capital’s new $22 billion-plus metro project, hoping to coax car-loving Saudis off clogged roads and into the subway, the head of Riyadh’s development authority says...
Once the project’s done, the authorities will be looking for “incentives that encourage the people to use public transport,” Mr. Sultan said. That could include increases “in terms of fuel costs,” he added.
http://blogs.wsj.com/middleeast/2013/07 ... ng-saudis/
That ought to open some eyes on the US right, lol
.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-
Pops - Elite
- Posts: 19746
- Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
