[Subjectivist]

I remember a ton of arguments on here in the past about how every gallon or so of demand destruction was a job lost. Not sure what the ratio actually is but the USA lost 2 million bbl/d of oil consumption and 30 million jobs, or something like that range of numbers.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', ' ')The good news is that most folks here and at TOD have abandoned that simplistic metric for the most part and are picking away at all the various components of the POD.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'S')o what is a definition of PO?

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '
')Excellent. And as the world postpones it time and time again, and the price drives people to manufacture their products out of other items, the oil component of it becomes less and less relevant. And this is good I believe.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'S')o PO is about production- not the amount underground. I can understand this, as flow is important. But it also occurs to me that if people move to mass transit or EV's, or for other reasons oil demand falls then the PO year really no longer becomes important at all- in fact PO itself loses any relevance in a demand destruction world.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '
')
Fortunately America becoming Saudi America doesn't have anything to do with the stuff I snipped, or meeting increasing demand because if demand (i.e. call it consumption for now) no one in the States would be able to run down to their corner gasoline dispensary and get some. There would be some form of ration card or shortage to deal with, should they desire to start a bonfire with a tanker truck of fuel.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', 'T')hat not being the case, there is no case for demand not being met, i.e. consumed, for anyone who can show up with what the market requires in terms of price.

[ROCKMAN]

Sam – “And I think you overestimated the value of TOD and underestimated the amount of population which know anything about oil”. I don’t think so. I don’t mean to hurt the feelings of the fine folks running this site but IMHO there’s little value to TOD and sites like this. A great place for folks like us to share thoughts but can you point to one concrete impact of PO.com or TOD on the country?

As far as my appreciation of the public knowledge base I’ve worked in the OIL CAPITAL of the world for over 30 years…Houston. We have more members in the local geologic society then all the other associations in the world COMBINED. And I can assure you that only a very tiny minority understand the current energy situation. In fact, you would probably be shocked to discover how few folks in the oil patch here have a good grasp of the big picture. The majority of reservoir engineers I know never heard of Hubbert and don’t know the term “PO”. Consider one fact: in a major city that houses more oil patch corporations than all the other cities on the planet there is no “Oil & Gas” section in the one big local newspaper. Not daily, weekly or even monthly. And maybe sometimes in the Sunday paper they’ll run a story or two related to the energy industry but typically something they just pulled off the wire service.
You might guess that I’m a rather chatty fellow. I visit with lots of folks from all around the country on a regular basis. At this point I’m never surprised at the complete lack of understanding about energy I discover. I would like to see folks here do a quick survey: in your daily travels drop the term “peak oil”, without explaining it and tell us what percentage appear to have even heard the term. We live in a very rarefied world at sites like this and TOD. We are not “normal”…we are not “the people”. LOL

As far as what gets posted on TOD there is no "TOD" that does or doesn't do anything. What gets posted here and there is subject to what the participants post. You're free to post about anything on your list of "what doesn't get posted" matters. I, for one, would be interested in seeing your analysis. You appear to be very well up on the subject.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', 'T')hat not being the case, there is no case for demand not being met, i.e. consumed, for anyone who can show up with what the market requires in terms of price.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '
')
Fortunately America becoming Saudi America doesn't have anything to do with the stuff I snipped, or meeting increasing demand because if demand (i.e. call it consumption for now) no one in the States would be able to run down to their corner gasoline dispensary and get some. There would be some form of ration card or shortage to deal with, should they desire to start a bonfire with a tanker truck of fuel.

[Oily Stuff]

I too live and work in the oilfield every day and engage service people, salespeople, supervisors, landmen, geologists, engineers and attorneys, from brilliant to dumb as a 4 pound hammer, and it astounds me how deeply, deeply in denial most people in my industry are about the energy future of our world. I think on an very abstract basis most people that work in the oil and gas industry feel they are making a contribution to society by finding and getting the nasty stuff out of the ground and into SUV's... and are proud of that. They get the big head, get caught up in all the big iron, the big dollars, the big frac jobs that are so loud they make your teeth hurt, and they simply cannot accept that as long as we can drill wells... life going forward will be peachy. Below the highest corporate level, employees fall prey to the propaganda, see the 800 BOPD IP's and hear all about the 40,000 shale wells to be drilled for instance, and they think of job security for themselves and their families. They don't want anyone threatening that with factual data. I have tried to explain the economics of tight oil wells to roughnecks, frac supervisors, SIPES members, whatever; they simply won't have it. As long as we are turning to the right, things will be alright and it seems to me the older you are, and still in the industry, even folks that have lived thru many booms and busts, the less likely they are to embrace peak oil (production) idealism. I often feel like an outcast among my peers because of my idealism about our energy future.

So again, as I have said before (and been told I was talking nonsense by some meathead), anybody IN the oil business that goes against the abundance flow I think does so thru experience. He/she is seeing something in the production numbers, the economics, reservoir performance, infrastructure failures, costs, regulatory constraints, decline curves; something very real is causing that person to feel different than the rest, to be concerned. Think of that person as a potential...whistleblower.

I agree too that for the most part we talk among ourselves on forums like this and TOD; we preach to each other. It's a time filler for most people. It is important to get off the beaten path whenever we can and take the peak production message to the streets. Where it would do the most good.

[furrybill]

OS,

Your statements here remind me of the couple years I was working for Philip Morris. The level of denial in the average worker was beyond belief! No one would admit that cigarettes are addictive or can cause cancer. No one would admit to the nasty tactics used by the company to expand and maintain its base of addicted users [I met a guy once who's job was to open markets in Eastern Europe, you wouldn't believe his stories]. Even worse, everyone truly believed that the company made loads of money because it was efficiently run and produced an awesome product rather than admitting that it was selling a super-marked-up product to people who were willing to pay through the nose for their "fix".

Or how about the people I've worked with in the banking industry who truly believe that their company is a force for good in the world?

This kind of denial is rampant in corporate America and elsewhere. People HAVE to lie to themselves because its how they feed their families. You're 100% correct OS, only the most thoughtful and self-honest people in the energy industry are going to figure out and talk about the true status of peak oil.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')One of the oft repeated statements poo-pooing PO is "the stoneage didn't end for lack of stones." The problem is we aren't transitioning away from FFs for something better, as for example switching from stones to iron. If we had something better we would be doing it instead of trying to shoehorn our non-negotiable FF based lifestyle into a "renewable" slipper. But we aren't, because there isn't a better alternative, we are switching because we are running out of stones and that's the difference.

[Pops]

Come on, how hard is it to understand that resources aren't reserves and cheap is the key to the problem. If money were no object, we'd all be wearing shiny underwear woven from ocean recovered gold.

But rate of production and cost is a limit, if it weren't, OECD consumption would not be falling.

Wind only produces 3.5% of US electricity generation and relies on state and federal subsidies for up to 30% of cost – and unfortunately your exponential curve is capped by austerity...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ind turbine installations will probably drop to 2,800 megawatts from a record 13,000 megawatts installed before the tax credit expired last year, according to New Energy Finance.

[C8]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'Y')eah, if the modern world didn't rely on fossil fuels for just about everything and if an easy replacement were handy, there wouldn't be a problem. lol

One of the oft repeated statements poo-pooing PO is "the stoneage didn't end for lack of stones." The problem is we aren't transitioning away from FFs for something better, as for example switching from stones to iron. If we had something better we would be doing it instead of trying to shoehorn our non-negotiable FF based lifestyle into a "renewable" slipper. But we aren't, because there isn't a better alternative, we are switching because we are running out of stones and that's the difference.

Most of the discussion here the last 9 year has been about transitioning away from FFs. The reason the date is important is if decline begins soon we won't have time to transition easily as a society. Everything runs on FFs and the strings are connected everywhere.

.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oily Stuff', 'I') agree too that for the most part we talk among ourselves on forums like this and TOD; we preach to each other. It's a time filler for most people. It is important to get off the beaten path whenever we can and take the peak production message to the streets. Where it would do the most good.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'I') cannot see anything but checkmate and eventual obsolescence for PO as it is linked to oil only. I think a broader concept is necessary (maybe energy scarcity- ES or Peak Energy PE)

[Oily Stuff]

What kind of mileage can I expect to get pulling a horse trailer on depolymerized turkey guts??!!

I suspect there are some emissions problems with that, but I like it! Drumsticks and fuel; one stop shopping. Cool.

[ROCKMAN]

OS –“I have tried to explain the economics of tight oil wells to roughnecks, frac supervisors, SIPES members, whatever; they simply won't have it.” And thus why I no longer try to teach pigs to roller skate. Just shut up and get a cold one when you come of tower. LOL

Bill – “You're 100% correct OS, only the most thoughtful and self-honest people in the energy industry are going to figure out and talk about the true status of peak oil.” And only then anonymously on sites like this and TOD. We may be thoughtful and honest but we ain’t stupid. LOL. I made that mistake decades ago when I told one of my VP's I voted for Jimmy Carter.