[Tanada]

BBC world news has decided this story has legs.
From http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-envir ... #FBM262379
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')assive new discoveries in the US have led to a "dramatic" change in global prospects.

The IEA's head of oil markets, Antoine Halff, says forecasts have had to be repeatedly revised upwards in the past two years.

Declining US production has been reversed as oil extracted from shale and other new sources comes on stream.

Mr Halff told BBC News that concerns about an approaching "peak" in oil production have been "moved to the back burner".

"Just a few years ago, everybody thought US production was in permanent decline, that the nation had to face the prospect of continuously rising imports - and now the country is moving towards self-sufficiency," he explained.

"In the last few years, many forecasters have had to revise their forecasts upwards continuously - sometimes the ink was not dry on the previous forecasts before they had to raise their outlooks again."

Developments in major new fields in Texas and North Dakota are behind the change in US oil fortunes, with the so-called Monterey shale beneath California also in prospect.

[SeaGypsy]

Yep, hence oil is going to $50 a barrel very soon. How stupid are these people? Extraction/ processing is $75+.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'Y')ep, hence oil is going to $50 a barrel very soon. How stupid are these people? Extraction/ processing is $75+.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'Y')ep, hence oil is going to $50 a barrel very soon. How stupid are these people? Extraction/ processing is $75+.

[SeaGypsy]

Can anyone else understand what John just said? I can't.

(The topic is Saudi America- a total fantasy.)

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'C')an anyone else understand what John just said? I can't.

(The topic is Saudi America- a total fantasy.)

[Tanada]

If someone with the skills would put up a graph of US oil production lower 48 plus Alaska from say 1946 to present I would find it very interesting. It is great tight oil is making a boom for American production, it is good for our economy to import less oil and good for our fellow Americans to get high paying jobs providing that oil and stimulating other people to satisfy their needs.

I do like the fact that North Dakota and Texas are supplying much more of our oil, but I also am cautious because it might prove to be a flash in the pan, or it might be a long term sustainable resource. I don't know which yet. Either way it is good as long as it lasts.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')his chart is deceptive. It is not produced by EIA (as its caption suggests), but rather a tight-shale investment company.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')orth Dakota has displaced Alaska as the countries second largest producer

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')Someone has decided that this is good enough to America to become Saudi America. I don't agree with that, but they do have a point, they are projecting upwards the same information others have been perpetually projecting downwards.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')'Saudi America' would mean having enough abundance not just to quit importing but to export to an extent to drive price. Not gonna happen.

[ROCKMAN]

I’m always a little surprised when I see so much pseudo-excitement over statements like “Saudi America Will Overtake Saudi Arabia As Top producer”. Does everyone know that US production exceeded that of the KSA for the better part of a year back around 2002? That the US has been doing about 80 - 85% of the KSA rate for the last 4 years or so? That for the majority of the 20th century US production exceeded that of the KSA? I think most understand that the US was the Saudi Arabia of oil exports at one time. Granted a long time ago. That the Texas Rail Road Commission was a much more effective cartel than OPEC every was? LOL.

The US, Russia and the KSA have been sharing the top 3 slots for many years. The only surprising prediction IMHO is that the positions won’t swing back and forth over the next 30 years. And again, back to Chia-T: I don’t care nearly as much about how much oil the KSA is producing in 10 or 15 years. I’m much more interested in how much oil they’ll be exporting and how much will be going to someone else other than China. That should have a much greater impact on the global oil price and availability.

John – I think somewhere I can’t find right now you asked me how I integrate various future estimate of US, KSA, global, et al oil production in my company’s business plan. I don’t. We don’t. None of those projection factor at all in our drilling decisions. Those decisions are driven solely by the prospect specific details. Future prices? We use current prices in our economics whatever they happen to be at the time. We know we can’t predict future prices so we don’t try. Using current prices may end up being optimistic or pessimistic. Won’t know till we get there. But by consistently using current prices we are just that: consistent. We are consistent in knowing what we don’t know. Over the last 38 years I’ve seen many companies use high price expectations to justify their business. With almost no exception they all paid a heavy price. And sometimes they paid a heavy price when they didn’t escalate their price platform and held constant. Life can be cruel even when you aren’t optimistic. LOL.

[Beery1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '.')..BBC is a news system I have a lot more faith in than the American media sources. Now they have drunk the Kool-Aid too.

[Vineyard]

German news media are also spreading these news for months now. And NONE of these news papers were mentioning extraction costs.

[wildbourgman]

Guys, it's happening, that's why I'm not saying that we won't reach 1970 production levels again like I said so many times in the last 8 years. Now will we spend alot of energy to extract this oil? Yes we will. Will we need to have a very high rig count in order to chase or even pass up the red queen for a period? Absolutely. Are there more shale plays in the states to tap? Yes! Can we get another 2000 rigs running in the states and do we have unemployed people that can be taught to run them? I think so, in time.

With all that said I'm feeling that we are going to have pricing similar to 2008 where we had severe variations in oil prices. If oil does go below $75 for and extended period, say six months to a year, then the rig count won't stay high enough to keep production up and growing like it is today due to shale well decline rates. If there are massive layoffs in the shale plays, they won't be able to grow a quality energy workforce. It's a catch 22!

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's a catch 22!

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')I do like the fact that North Dakota and Texas are supplying much more of our oil, but I also am cautious because it might prove to be a flash in the pan, or it might be a long term sustainable resource. I don't know which yet. Either way it is good as long as it lasts.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wildbourgman', ' ')Are there more shale plays in the states to tap? Yes! Can we get another 2000 rigs running in the states and do we have unemployed people that can be taught to run them? I think so, in time.