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Peak Oil - Important points, but wrong!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil - Important points, but wrong!

Unread postby agramante » Sun 30 Jun 2013, 12:04:52

You touch on an important point, Rock--the inflation index is pretty low, and has been, for a long time now. Over the last fifteen years or so, inflation has hovered around 2.5%. So starting at 2000, 100 dollars then, across thirteen years at 2.5% inflation, is $137.50 now. (Even bumping that up to 3% inflation, since I was just reading quickly off a graph, results in $146,85, slightly less than 50% increase.) Contrast that with oil prices--take WTI and Brent, for example--




and from 2002 to the present day you'll see a roughly 500% increase in price. Plainly oil is outpacing inflation, at least in the USA. So I'd hesitate to use the term "inflation" in describing the price of oil, since "inflation" has a specific definition which doesn't seem to accurately describe what's going on with oil--and in fact, what I read about inflation discusses more the overall pricing of a wide variety of goods, not one specific product. But I'm not an economist so someone who is might want to disabuse me of this.
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Re: Peak Oil - Important points, but wrong!

Unread postby C8 » Mon 01 Jul 2013, 10:48:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'C')8 – “Yet these nations have not seen such a dramatic shift in wealth distribution as we have (USA)”. Really? Please show me the supporting stats.

And: “Oil exporting nations, such as SA, Canada, Russia have not shown a dramatic decrease in wealth inequality.” Russia doesn’t have a huge differential between wealthy and poor? You and I must read very different news reports. And you don’t believe the owners of private Canadian oil companies haven’t gotten sticking rich since oil jumped from $20/bbl? And Saudi Arabia? They probably have the highest income differential on the planet. Unless you count govt welfare as income…which I don’t. Just because they provide financial support to most of their population doesn’t change the fact that just several thousand Saudis control 90% of the wealth.

In the US there are 8 million small businesses each of which employs less than 100 employees. The produce a larger cash flow than all the larger corporations including those owned by the rich. They employ more folks than all the other bigger companies. They produce the majority of the products the US exports. They contribute more to the tax base than the other companies. They represent more than 90% of the companies in the US. Just out of curiosity please point the stats of other countries that have a wider distribution of their respective economies.

As always your opinions are welcomed. But let’s see some stats, please.
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Re: Peak Oil - Important points, but wrong!

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 02 Jul 2013, 22:32:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'S')ome 1.7 million people currently work in or around these new energy plays. By 2035, IHS expects the energy boom to directly or indirectly support 3.5 million American jobs. Around 700,000 of those jobs are expected to materialize within the next two years.
I asked you about this before (sorry, can't find the post). I think you indicated there were very few new jobs in your end of the business. My thinking is that these new plays are more labour intensive than traditional conventional if you include all the suppliers and support industries. So a larger percentage of the workforce is employed (directly or indirectly) in O&G. As we go from the gushers to lower grade resources, the percentage will keep increasing.
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Re: Peak Oil - Important points, but wrong!

Unread postby C8 » Tue 02 Jul 2013, 23:35:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'C')8 – “Yet these nations have not seen such a dramatic shift in wealth distribution as we have (USA)”. Really? Please show me the supporting stats.

And: “Oil exporting nations, such as SA, Canada, Russia have not shown a dramatic decrease in wealth inequality.” Russia doesn’t have a huge differential between wealthy and poor? You and I must read very different news reports. And you don’t believe the owners of private Canadian oil companies haven’t gotten sticking rich since oil jumped from $20/bbl? And Saudi Arabia? They probably have the highest income differential on the planet. Unless you count govt welfare as income…which I don’t. Just because they provide financial support to most of their population doesn’t change the fact that just several thousand Saudis control 90% of the wealth.

In the US there are 8 million small businesses each of which employs less than 100 employees. The produce a larger cash flow than all the larger corporations including those owned by the rich. They employ more folks than all the other bigger companies. They produce the majority of the products the US exports. They contribute more to the tax base than the other companies. They represent more than 90% of the companies in the US. Just out of curiosity please point the stats of other countries that have a wider distribution of their respective economies.

As always your opinions are welcomed. But let’s see some stats, please.



Whoops- looks like I posted RM's quote w/o my reply. Rockman- reread my post- you misread it and are making MY argument. I am saying that big Oil importers such as Japan and Europe have preserved their middle class much more than the US and oil exporters (Russia, et al) are not growing much of a middle class- ergo: importing or exporting oil doesn't correlate with changes in the size of a nations middle class. What does correlate is the policies of the nation about what to do with that money gain/loss.

If oil prices rise on importers those govts. can help their middle class by taxing the rich more and giving it to the middle class or by setting up more public transit so the middle class can spend less on gas. Higher oil prices are not killing the US middle class, its the policy response (or lack thereof) that is the problem. Oil prices are just an input that can be transformed by policy. Japan and Germany are far more vulnerable to higher oil prices but have protected their middle class to a far greater degree than the US where a class war is going on to wipe out the middle class and transfer its wealth to the upper classes.

The US middle class has been hurt by higher oil prices- but it has been far more hurt by offshoring, union busting, sales tax increases and out of control health care cost increases.

Many Americans have been conditioned to believe that class battles do not occur. There is a deep reluctance to admit that the rich in the US are actually out to take as much of the pie as they can. Americans desperately wish for a world where everybody gets along and nasty aggressiveness is not a problem. We are first and foremost an avoidant people who greatly fear confronting the reality that our economic system eventually consumes democracy as money power takes over govt. Most Americans believe the rich are a "better" people, the main goal is not to fight them but join them.

Sadly, Peak Oil may lead to an intellectual viewpoint that conveniently covers up the reality of class war. Higher oil prices are blamed for the shrinking middle class and economic problems when the real culprit is the continuous assault on the middle class though legislation that taxes them more and the rich less. PO then becomes a relief valve for not confronting nasty politics or civic action, an intellectual diversion for not looking the real problem square in the eye. Like I said, Americans want to wish away class warfare- but it is going on and is in full swing.

In Ohio, my home state, the governor just signed a budget that raises sales taxes (which hit the middle class and poor the most) and lowers income taxes (which will benefit the rich the most). The Medicaid expansion was also shot down- which would have helped the needy greatly, but oil and gas companies got off without any new taxes on fracking or drilling. The legislature is considering another attempt to eliminate unions. I'm sorry, PO is small potatoes compared to this- gas is only $3.30 and is lower than the last 2 years.

PO can open up a person's eyes- but it can also close them.
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Re: Peak Oil - Important points, but wrong!

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 03 Jul 2013, 00:05:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'P')O then becomes a relief valve for not confronting nasty politics or civic action, an intellectual diversion for not looking the real problem square in the eye.
That assumes PO is even mentioned in the MSM.
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Re: Peak Oil - Important points, but wrong!

Unread postby agramante » Wed 03 Jul 2013, 02:20:28

C8 - I agree with nearly everything in your last post. Raw materials exports (including fossil fuels) don't translate into a middle class at all. Look at any of the major oil exporters these days: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Mexico--or pretty much anyone in OPEC. It's such a capital-intensive, non-labor-intensive industry that major oil extraction operations don't need a large working force to be carried out. As to the forms that the class war has taken in the United States, they make me so upset that I don't want to go into them here, as they have little direct application to the topic of peak oil. Suffice to say, my mother was a history teacher, and I'm deeply ashamed to see what's being done to destroy public education. And that's just one part of the class war.

I would add that those conducting warfare on the former middle class and below, have strongly vested interests in continuing to conceal this war, and if peak oil is a convenient fig leaf, they will certainly use it. When "business as usual" becomes "ZOMG peakoil!" across the media spectrum, the reason will be obvious enough. (Not that I pay attention to most of that spectrum. I've purposefully avoided television/cable news for over twenty years.)
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