[Ibon]

I have asked over a dozen educated Panamanians if they are concerned about the opening of the Northwest Passage. I just was on a flight with an American construction engineer and his wife who were returning to Panama to go back to work on their jobs with the canal expansion and I asked them as well if there was much talk amongst their colleagues about this topic.

Nobody I have asked this question to even knew this was a risk. Amazing how clueless the educated public is as well. You would think that this would be at the top of the list of risk assesment here in Panama.

2014 the canal expansion will be complete and the new mega ships will start passage. The first one through will be a huge event here. The older locks were maintained and will continue to be used.

Investors are expecting huge returns on their investment.......

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I') have asked over a dozen educated Panamanians if they are concerned about the opening of the Northwest Passage. I just was on a flight with an American construction engineer and his wife who were returning to Panama to go back to work on their jobs with the canal expansion and I asked them as well if there was much talk amongst their colleagues about this topic.

Nobody I have asked this question to even knew this was a risk. Amazing how clueless the educated public is as well. You would think that this would be at the top of the list of risk assesment here in Panama.

2014 the canal expansion will be complete and the new mega ships will start passage. The first one through will be a huge event here. The older locks were maintained and will continue to be used.

Investors are expecting huge returns on their investment.......

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he total cargo transported on the NSR this year is 1 261 545 tons – a 53 percent increase from 2011, when 820 789 tons was shipped on the route.

25 of the vessels sailed NSR eastbound, starting from Murmansk, Arkhangelsk or Baydaratskaya Bay. 21 sailed in a westbound direction, a report from Rosatomflot reads. The report is given to BarentsObserver by the Centre for High North Logistics, an international knowledge hub on Arctic transport and logistics for businesses.

Petroleum products constitute the largest cargo group. A total of 894 079 tons of diesel fuel, gas condensate, jet fuel, LNG and other petrol products has been transported on 26 vessels in 2012. 18 of the tankers sailed from west to east, eight in the opposite direction. There have been no super tankers on the NSR this season – the largest tanker was the Norwegian “Marika”, which transported 66 552 tons of jet fuel from Korea to Finland in August.

The second largest cargo group was iron ore and coal, which was transported along the route six times.

[Newfie]

Tanda,

You my find this site of interest.

NW thru the McClure strait in a sailboat.

http://belzebub2.com/home?lang=en

[sparky]

.
Another aspect is that it's a sea route not under the control of the U.S. Navy ,
one can do Murmansk to next door to China in Russian territorial waters
Should things become unpleasant between China and the U.S. , it could come in handy

[EdwinSm]

Recent commercial news on the artic passage (north of Russia):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')as tanker Ob River attempts first winter Arctic crossing
...
"You are able to reach a highly profitable market by saving 40% of the distance, that's 40% less fuel used as well."

[Tanada]

Thanks for the link, strange to me that she calls shipping via the NSR surprising, the USSR did it for decades and Russia has been promoting it heavily for the last five years. I guess it is true those who don't study history are constantly surprised by what people do that they didn't know about.

[sparky]

.
The fate of the Arctic regions is looking good, the Northern limits of farming are increasing
with easier bulk transport, the local economy should improve
the Siberian towns survived only because of massive government subsidies
I suppose it's the same in Canada

[radon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
the Siberian towns survived only because of massive government subsidies

[sparky]

.
@ Radon , Interesting that you should mention some Northern warfare

NATO had some views identical to you ,
Exercice "cold response 2012"

16000 NATO troops , with logistical support from Sweden, occupied a big Northern city ( Murmansk )
keep the civilians under control and fight "insurgents"
since the exercise included anti sub warfare and anti aircraft cover,
that must have been some insurgents !

"12–21 March 2012–Operations : Field activities and Joint Forces Cooperation, balancing
safety for “localpopulation” and fighting military opposition in a demanding environment.

The Russians saw it as readiness preparation for an invasion , destruction of their Northern fleet bases
and generally very unfriendly intents

A good primer
http://www.globalresearch.ca/top-of-the ... ctic/30508

At the time , Putin had just bee re-elected ,
Obama waited three weeks before sending the customary congratulation telegram ,
everybody else , as normal would have send one in a matter of hours
in the Moscow streets , anti Putin demonstrations were led by people who had attended a meeting in the U.S. embassy with the brand new ambassador michael Macfaul
a man chosen for his belief in color coded revolutions

Now , why are those Russian so paranoia ?

[Tanada]

In all fairness Russia has plenty of reason to be paranoid if you study their history even a little bit. Just off the top of my head the Mongols devastated them when they came west in the 1230's, they had a running set of wars as long a list as your arm in the Balkans and with the Ottomans and Turks, England, France, Germany have all invaded them from time to time and the USA joined the club in 1919. Germany really did a number on them in World War II. Since the fall of the USSR just about every western power has tried to influence their political balance of power internally and externally.

The Russians have a few great things going for them, they have a well educated scientific class, they have vast natural resources, and now they are exploiting the NSR that they could have been exploiting during the Cold War but they were cautious about letting foreign flag merchants use the route back then. Between natural resources and natural trade routes things are really looking up for Russia these days, which is usually when they get attacked by someone who wants their assets.

[Newfie]

Just a few thoughts about above posts..

Canada ice service has some routing data for working in the arctic but it is a subscription and fairly expensive

US ice breaker fleet is a joke....old, small, obsolete

Canada ice breakers not much better. CCG is civil service, not military

Russian has by far the biggest and best ice breakers

North Canada regions have been very heavily subsidized for generations. These populations are generally not self sustaining in any way. Reading about the management of the cultures is painful. Not comparable to the situation in Europe. Not that Russia was good, just different.

Even in rural Newfoundland and coastal Quebeck there is very heavy subsidy via their version of unemployment insurance.

[sparky]

.
The subsidies I had in mind were subsidized food and groceries
the cost of transport to the remote stations is huge ,
the sea ways opening is like a breath of air for them

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'J')ust a few thoughts about above posts..

Canada ice service has some routing data for working in the arctic but it is a subscription and fairly expensive

US ice breaker fleet is a joke....old, small, obsolete

Canada ice breakers not much better. CCG is civil service, not military

Russian has by far the biggest and best ice breakers

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')Canada and the US are staring at an economic opportunity if they upgrade their ice breakers and charge a fee per ship by keeping a shipping lane open and free of ice

[Tanada]

http://www.marinelink.com/news/northern ... 55368.aspx
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Northern Sea Route administration has so far given 54 vessels permission to sail the route in 2013.

This year’s sailing season on the Northern Sea Route between Europe and Russia will probably be the busiest one ever. The first vessels to take the Arctic shortcut this summer will leave Murmansk at the end of June.

The Northern Sea Route Administration has so far received 89 applications to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR). 54 vessels have so far been given permission to sail along the route, reports the Barents Observer, citing the administration's (Russian language) web-site.

There has been a tenfold increase in the number of vessels using the NSR during the last couple of years. In 2012 46 vessels sailed the whole route, compared to 34 in 2011 and only four in 2010.

Source: Barents Observer

[Tanada]

http://www.arctic-info.com/News/Page/ex ... sea-route-
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xperts believe that the intensity of navigation along the Northern Sea Route in the next eight years could rise 30-fold, and by 2030, a quarter of freight traffic between Europe and Asia may pass through Arctic waters.

According to the Assistant Director of Atomflot Mikhail Belkin, development of the Northern Sea Route Russia promises great benefits, Scientific American journal reports. The Northern Sea Route is not a rival to the Suez Canal, but it is a good seasonal supplement... and has the potential for rapid growth,” said Belkin.

Today, the Arctic shipping rates look insignificant in comparison with more traditional routes: about 1.5 million tonnes of cargo along the Northern Sea Route in the past year, while approximately 740 million tonnes pass through the Suez Canal. However, Belkin believes that by 2021, the turnover of the Northern Sea Route could total around 40 million tonnes. Earlier, the chief of staff of Atomflot naval operations, Vladimir Arutyunyan, the predicted annual growth of freight traffic is only up to 15 tonnes by 2020.

The use of the route in the Arctic Ocean is currently limited, not only because of ice, but because of inadequate infrastructure. However, in Russia, there is active construction of Arctic ports and technical rescue services along the route.

[Tanada]

http://arcticportal.org/news/21-shippin ... -passable-
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he total cargo transported on the NSR last year was 1 261 545 tons – a 53 percent increase from 2011, when 820 789 tons was shipped on the route. According to conservative estimates the amount will grow to 1, 5 million tons in 2013.

The Northern Sea Route is a shipping lane officially defined by Russian legislation from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean specifically running along the Russian Arctic coast from Murmansk on the Barents Sea, along Siberia, to the Bering Strait and Far East.

The entire route lies in Arctic waters and parts are free of ice for only two months per year. Before the beginning of the 20th century it was called the Northeast Passage, and is still sometimes referred to by that name.

[C8]

I wonder if all that shipping will have an effect of increasing melt via albedo reducing soot, oil and sewage discharge affecting chemical melt points, ships breaking dark lanes through thin ice and accelerating melt or wave action disrupting fragile ice, engines transmitting heat through the water? Every little bit probably makes a difference.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'I') wonder if all that shipping will have an effect of increasing melt via albedo reducing soot, oil and sewage discharge affecting chemical melt points, ships breaking dark lanes through thin ice and accelerating melt or wave action disrupting fragile ice, engines transmitting heat through the water? Every little bit probably makes a difference.