[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'I')n a global capitalist economy where there is no conservation, where a global population with 85 pct not part of the middle class want to become part of the same, where the remaining 15 pct are counting on the rest to become part of the middle class in order to earn, where 60 pct lack one or more basic needs, where much of manufacturing and mechanized agriculture heavily dependent on oil, and where a financial elite has control of much of money supply and only want more production and consumption of goods to keep the value of money propped up, it is likely that emissions will continue to increase.

[ROCKMAN]

Tanada – “I am honestly surprised that we have managed to print this much money this fast without popping the bubble.”. I’ve wondered about that also. I understand enough global economics to follow the discussions but that’s about it. But I wonder if we’ve reached a point where the govts and global financial institutions have developed a “don’t pop my bubble and I won’t pop yours” philosophy. I’ve seen many folks vehemently argue “the system” can’t maintain this process. But what if the system will do whatever it can to hold to BAU? Kinda like lying about lying…works OK until someone starts telling the truth. And if a few bursting bubbles lead to a global bubble burst? Might be many times worse than individual pops. I’ve seen a number of folks that argue Japan had eventually done itself more damage by supporting their system then if they had just taken that initial big hit.

[SeaGypsy]

If the money printed had been flowing right through the system, inflating everything right down to menial wages- things would be different- but they haven't. The money is being concentrated in corporations, banks and the top few percentile. (Who are putting it where it still grows- increasingly offshore)

[ROCKMAN]

SG - Good point. I'm envisioning a closed loop system. Those in the inner circle continue to support each other because each needs the support of the others in the circle. Sorta like the old joke of the blonde terrorist holding a gun to her head and saying: “Don’t move or I'll shoot". Maybe that explains the relatively slow economy despite the amount injected into it: most of the world isn’t in that circle and thus those gains are invisible to them. Each of TPTB are in a big circle holding a gun to each other’s head and saying: “Don’t stop or I’ll shoot”.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I')f the money printed had been flowing right through the system, inflating everything right down to menial wages- things would be different- but they haven't. The money is being concentrated in corporations, banks and the top few percentile. (Who are putting it where it still grows- increasingly offshore)

[cephalotus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
Germany isn't "leading the world."

[cephalotus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ')Germany is shutting down nukes (which keep the lights on and release zero CO2) and building coal-fired power plants to replace them. The net result is a huge INCREASE in German CO2 production.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Until it can't. Every bubble eventually collapses and some outright burst leaving only scrap behind. Global fiat currency is the biggest bubble humanity has ever manufactured. From time to time many countries have had their fiat currency inflated until it lost value, but this time around its not one or two countries. The USA and all the currencies tied to the USA dollar are being pumped like mad to keep the economy staggering along, but such a system never lasts forever. I am honestly surprised that we have managed to print this much money this fast without popping the bubble. I don't know what will finally pop the bubble, but I know sooner or later something will.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')
There in lies the rub. Wages have been stagnant for several years now in everything but a few select career fields, but at the same time fossil fuel costs have not been stagnant. Petroleum is averaging over $100.00/bbl when you look at all the oil consumed by the world every day. In 2007 the average oil price was $64.20 and people thought that was crazy. When the housing bubble popped in 2008 the price fell by half, but only for the end of 2008 and start of 2009. Since then we have had a steady increase in Oil price year over year. I got a 3% raise in 2008 because it was contracted and they couldn't get out of it, but it was effectively the last raise I ever got. Sure I got token, and I do mean token raises in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. I don't believe any of them exceeded 1% and most were .05% or less. At the same time my taxes went up, my fuel expenses went up, my maintenance expenses went up. I am far from the only one in the USA who was losing ground in the last five years, if anything the situation has become chronic. How long will this keep happening before there is a break down in peoples ability to prop up BAU for the elites? I am fortunate to have a spouse making good income, not everyone is so lucky.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cephalotus', 'I')f the US has no interest in an effective global climate policy (and you don't have shown any interest so far) nonone else will go ahead. Simple as that.

Isn't it how you like it, when the world walks in your steps?

We will do our own, because changing the energy mix is in our own interest. But as long as the US is not showing any will in reducing their ridiculous high CO2 output noone else will do.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cephalotus', 'W')e switched of 8 nuclear plants in March 2011

[cephalotus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '
')The US has led the world in co2 emission reductions, even absent a climate policy.

[cephalotus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')The coal-fired power plants that Germany built to replace them are opening now.

[kublikhan]

Whoa there cephalotus! I think you need to tone it down a few notches. You can make your point without all of the hostility. It's doubly bad when you are all fired up about a position when you are completely off base.

First off, I never said you were stupid. I said flat out, the us achieved its co2 reductions without a climate policy. See:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')he US has led the world in co2 emission reductions, even absent a climate policy.

[cephalotus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'A')nd the world would still be in the position you describe if the US emissions fell by 100% to ZERO. Rising co2 emissions in developing nations would more than offset declining emissions in the US. I am not "hiding" behind China or others by stating this. I am trying to point out your solution seems to me seems akin to plugging fingers in a dam that is springing leaks. Sure, China has a right to develop it's country and burn all the fossil fuels it can get it's hands on. Well, that right is going to drag the climate into the crapper.

[kublikhan]

cephalotus, it sounds to me like you are more interested in playing the blame game than actually moving forward with solutions from here. I don't think this attitude is productive. It's like saying "You raped the earth for 100 years, now we should be able to do it too!"

Yes, the US has cumulatively released the most co2 emissions. However saying developing nations should now release as much co2 as they want in the name of fairness is shortsighted. We need to deal with the situation we are in now, not point fingers. And by having the developing world sit on their collective thumbs until the US ushers in a new era of fusion energy free of all the nastiness of fossil fuels or whatever utopian nonsense you had in mind is not going to cut it. The US did lower it's co2 emissions by a considerable amount and yet globally co2 is still rising by record amounts.

Developing nations do not need to follow the same model the US followed. Did you know many developing nations have skipped installing the old copper wire phone networks and leapfrogged directly to mobile phone use? Leapfrogging past traditional development stages the US went through saving much time, energy, and capital in the process. And it's not just a simple tech transfer from developed to developing either. Many nations are adding their own unique contributions to the mobile revolution like low cost chargers, mobile payment plans, etc. I am not saying it will be just as easy to do the same with energy and co2. Not even the developed nations have gotten that right yet. But sitting back and saying "you first!" is not going to accomplish anything. We all need to get working tackling this problem, not point fingers.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ellphone use in the developing world has climbed to nearly 5 billion mobile subscriptions, and three-quarters of the world now has access to mobile networks. This technology is reshaping the way individuals and communities manage their finances, monitor weather, engage with government, and earn a living. “People are going from zero to 60. It is huge to go from no phone at all to a cellphone. The rapid penetration of cellphones in developing countries is changing lives dramatically.”

“The challenge now is to enable people, businesses, and governments in developing countries to develop their own locally relevant mobile applications so they can take full advantage of these opportunities,” said Rachel Kyte, vice president for sustainable development at the World Bank.

Already many mobile innovations, including low-cost recharges and mobile payments, originate in poorer countries and spread from there. As developing countries continue to play a leading role in mobile-device subscription and innovation, the development of mobile applications targeted at rural communities with limited access to health services or banking could gain a broader international reach. And as some applications gain success and are tweaked and replicated, their presence in developed countries could multiply as well.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cephalotus', '
')From a German viewpoint:

Most likely a +4K world will harm us, but will not doom us.

[Graeme]

Wow. I didn't expect this thread to develop as it has with cephalotus passionately arguing the German case. And I have some sympathy for his arguments. He is right. The US is dragging us all down. We don't have a global climate treaty, which the US negotiators have been delaying for years. For example:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he US has been vocally against effective action on climate change due to its reliance upon fossil fuel for its economy. Being a producer of oil and coal, they feel more threatened by action on climate change.

[cephalotus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
Why take the chance?

[cephalotus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '
')
Developing nations do not need to follow the same model the US followed. Did you know many developing nations have skipped installing the old copper wire phone networks and leapfrogged directly to mobile phone use? Leapfrogging past traditional development stages the US went through saving much time, energy, and capital in the process.